Dodgers: 2023 Projections Are Not Being Kind to Los Angeles

The projections systems aren't too high on the boys in blue.

What a way to start off the new year! Coming off a campaign that saw the Dodgers win 111 games in the regular season and enter the postseason as the favorites to win it all.

We won't get in to what happened from there.

Now, entering the new year, the latest projections aren't looking too kind for LA. While the Dodgers are destined to be one of the better teams in the league, their World Series hopes are way down from the norm. 

In a recent column over at ESPN.com, Bradford Doolittle ran another edition of the way-too-early MLB power rankings for the 2023 season. There, the Dodgers ranked all the way down at number nine on the list (the Mets, Padres, and Yankees top the list in that order). Using FanGraphs.com's "Steamer" projections system, LA's title odds are down to 3% with a projected regular season win total of 89.7. 

That would be the club's lowest (full season) total since 2012.

These lower projections make sense as we're discussing a club has lost a number of key contributors from last season. Trea Turner is gone after signing a mega deal with the Phillies. Justin Turner is done after inking a two-year deal with Boston. Also gone are Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney, among others.

As Doolittle notes, Steamer does not seem to be very high on the players the Dodgers have added so far this season. Here's what the ESPN columnist had to say.

Steamer isn't particularly excited about the additions of J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard, which plays into a rather surprising ranking for the Dodgers. ... What the forecasts can't capture is the Dodgers' uncanny ability to get acquired players to produce at a level a tier or two above what the numbers suggest.

So, reality may play out a bit differently than the simulation, as it were. There's every reason to believe that Syndergaard can get close to the dominant force he was a few years ago under the watchful eyes of Mark Prior, Connor McGuinness and Rob Hill with the pitching development side of things. Martinez is a bona fide slugger that mashes left-handed pitching (.957 OPS vs LHP for his career, .998 in 2022), an area where the Dodgers continued to struggle mightily (.754 team OPS vs LHP last season).

Another thing that Steamer cannot project is the contributions the young up-and-coming players can make. Miguel Vargas will be a key player on the roster. James Outman and Michael Bucsh will likely see a lot of time in the big leagues this coming season. And the future of the pitching staff will look promising with Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone all ready to contribute in 2023.

The Dodgers may enter the season as perceived underdogs. But don't expect it feel exactly that way by the time October rolls around.