Dodgers-Brewers Wild Card Series Preview: It's a Trap!

Dodgers-Brewers Wild Card Series Preview: It's a Trap!

The Dodgers were not pleased when Major League Baseball expanded this year’s playoffs to 16 teams and four full rounds. For a team favored to reach and win the World Series, the expanded playoffs only serve to lower the chances of winning a championship. If the Major League Baseball playoffs are a crapshoot, this year’s format adds another roll of the dice, another chance to crap out.

The new best-of-three Wild Card round, which starts Wednesday in the National League, is of particular concern. For the league’s top teams, the Wild Card Round, which puts all 16 teams on equal footing with the minor exception of home field advantage in an empty ballpark, isn’t an opportunity, it’s a trap.

The Dodgers’ Wild Card matchup against the Brewers is a particularly nefarious trap. The Dodgers were inarguably the best team in the majors this season. They led the majors with 43 wins, three more than the runner-up Rays, six more (a tenth of this abbreviated, 60-game season) than the next-best National League team, the Padres. Over 162 games, the Dodgers’ .717 winning percentage would have yielded a record-tying 116 wins. Meanwhile, their +136 run differential was 62 percent greater than the second-best Padres’ +84. Despite that, L.A. is forced to play a winner-take-all three-game set against a Brewers team that had a losing record (29-31), a -17 run differential, and only made the playoffs on the final day of the season because the two teams they were battling for the final spot in the NL (the Giants and Phillies) also lost on Sunday.

The 234-point gap between the Dodgers’ and Brewers’ winning percentages is the largest of any matchup in the history of baseball’s postseason, including its nascent nineteenth century forms. On paper, that’s a clear mismatch, but, as MLB.com analyst and former Dodgers blogger Mike Petriello wrote last week, in baseball, there is no such thing as an upset in a three-game series. In the major leagues, a bad team taking two of three from good teams isn’t a fluke, it’s a common occurrence.

One needn’t look any further than this year’s Dodgers for an example. The Dodgers lost just one series this season, a tremendous accomplishment that underscores their dominance. The one team that took two of three from them? The Rockies, who finished 26-34 (.433), had the third-worst run differential in baseball (-78, just one run better than the Pirates’ -79), and missed even these expanded playoffs. The Brewers were three wins and 61 runs worth of differential better than the Rockies this year. As big of a mismatch as this series is, it’s no sure thing for Los Angeles.

Truth be told, a Brewers “upset” in this series might be exactly what baseball needs to insure that this absurd expanded playoff format, which would allow losing teams to reach the postseason annually, does not return for future seasons. A fluke result that sidelines the star-studded, mega-market Dodgers in favor of the small-market, and comparatively no-name, Brewers would be a disaster for postseason ratings, and thus ad sales, which is all that those in charge really care about here. Fortunately for MLB and Dodgers fans, as possible as such an upset might be, it still seems tremendously improbable.

If their losing record wasn’t enough of an indication, the Brewers are just not a good team. Though this is ostensibly a rematch of the 2018 National League Championship Series, this is a very different Brewers team than the one the Dodgers faced two Octobers ago. It’s also very different from the one they last played (this being the Dodgers’ first out-of-division series since 2019). Thanks to a few final-weekend injuries, it may even be quite different from the one that backed into the playoffs just a few days ago.

Just three regulars—Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun, both of whom set career lows in batting average and on-base percentage this year, and shortstop Orlando Arcia—remain from the last time these two teams met in April 2019. Second baseman Keston Hiura didn’t make his major league debut until May 2019, center fielder Lorenzo Cain opted out of the 2020 season on August 1, and the rest of last April’s Brewers hitters—including Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, and Jesús Aguilar—have since moved on to other teams. Milwaukee replaced those departed pieces on the cheap, resulting in an offense that ranked 27th out of 30 teams in runs scored this season and limped to the finish line, failing to score more than three runs in any of its final eight games. The Dodgers, by comparison, led the majors with 349 runs scored this season, 5.82 per game to the Brewers’ 4.12, and scored as few as three runs just once in their final 11 games.

Similarly, without Cain, the Brewers ranked in the bottom third of the majors in defensive efficiency, while the Dodgers were second to only the Cardinals in that category. Despite that brutal fielding performance, the Brewers’ pitching staff as a whole was above average. However, a couple of key injuries over the season’s final weekend has significantly weakened Milwaukee’s rotation for this series.

Corbin Burnes emerged as a serious contender for the National League Cy Young award in this, his age-25 season. Burnes took a 1.77 ERA into his final start on Friday, but he suffered an oblique strain in that game and has been placed on the injured list. He will not pitch in this series. The Brewers are also likely to be without fragile lefty, and former Dodger, Brett Anderson, who had a solid season for Milwaukee but was removed from the season finale on Sunday due to a blister that will likely keep him out of this series.

The Brewers have 2019 All-Star Brandon Woodruff lined up to start Game 2, but haven’t officially announced any of their starters for this round as of this writing due to the uncertainty caused by the injuries to Burnes and Anderson, who were on-turn to start Games 1 and, if necessary, 3. Here, then are what the matchups look like as I write this (all games at Dodger Stadium and on ESPN, game times for Thursday and Friday to be announced, Game 3 only played if necessary):

Game 1 - Wed. 9/30, 7:08 p.m. PT: LHP Brent Suter (3.13 ERA, 31 2/3 IP)* vs. RHP Walker Buehler (3.44 ERA, 36 2/3 IP)

Game 2 - Thur. 10/1, TBA: RHP Brandon Woodruff (3.05 ERA, 73 2/3 IP)* vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.16 ERA, 58 1/3 IP)

Game 3 - Fri. 10/2, TBA: TBA vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin (2.31 ERA, 46 2/3 IP)*

*not officially announced

After his outstanding return from a blister issue of his own last Thursday (4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K), Walker Buehler has drawn the Game 1 start for the Dodgers. That has more to do with rest than rank. Clayton Kershaw started on Friday, so both Buehler and Kershaw will pitch in this series five day’s rest. The Dodgers haven’t announced a Game 3 starter, but, if they need one, I can’t comprehend how they could go with anyone other than Gonsolin, who could very well finish in the top three in the Rookie of the Year voting and the top 10 in the Cy Young voting.

For their part, the Brewers seem likely to call on Brent Suter to start Game 1. Suter, who has posted a career ERA+ of 120 while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen in his five seasons with the Brewers, made three starts down the stretch for Milwaukee. In those three starts, he threw a total of 10 scoreless innings, didn’t allow an extra-base hit, and struck out 13 against just three walks. A soft-tossing lefty who walks no one and induces an excess of ground balls, Suter is exactly the kind of pitcher, if not the only kind of pitcher, that the Dodgers struggled against this year.

Sutter may only give the Brewers five innings under ideal circumstances, but the Brewers’ bullpen is the part of this trap that has the sharpest teeth. Rookie Devin Williams was arguably the best reliever in baseball this year, posting a 0.33 ERA over 27 innings, averaging more than an inning per appearance, and striking out an absurd 53 percent of the batters he faced for a 17.7 K/9. Williams, whose “airbender” is a changeup that moves like a screwball, worked two scoreless innings in each of his last three outings of the year and will likely be tapped for a similar workload if the Brewers can get him a lead in this series.

Williams and closer Josh Hader give the Brewers an end game that brings to mind the Mariano Rivera/John Wetteland combination that the underdog Yankees used to win a championship in 1996. Hader hasn’t been as dominant this year as in past seasons. His walk rate is up, and he recorded more than three outs just once all season (1 1/3 innings back on August 14), but he’s still an effective closer who strikes out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faces.

The Brewers have also gotten good relief this year from 29-year-old rookie righty Eric Yardley (1.54 ERA in 24 appearances), though his peripherals have been less impressive. Alex Claudio remains a solid lefty option against a team susceptible to southpaws (the Dodgers’ OPS was nearly 60 points lower against lefties this season), and another 29-year-old rookie, Justin Topa, came on strong down the stretch, working multiple-inning outings and not yet allowing a walk or a run in 7 2/3 big-league innings.

Woodruff will be on regular rest for Game 2, having last pitched on Saturday. He finished the season strong, posting a 1.63 ERA over his final four starts, all against playoff teams (the Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals twice). He completed at least seven innings in three of those starts, struck out at least nine in three others, dominated the Cubs (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K), and had a huge clutch start against the Cardinals on Saturday (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K). That last made him the Brewer most responsible for getting Milwaukee into the playoffs over the season’s final weekend.

Woodruff mixes his pitches much better than when the Dodgers last saw him last April. He was still throwing his fastball nearly half the time then. Now, he doesn’t throw anything more than a third of the time, mixing five pitches: his upper-90s four-seamer and sinker, high-80s slider and change, and a low-80s curve that continues to gain a foothold in his repertoire. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Chris Taylor all have great numbers against Woodruff, but those are old numbers in extremely tiny samples (maximum five plate appearances). I’d say ignore them, but it’s hard to ignore Pederson going 4-for-5 with two home runs against Woodruff, even if three of those hits, and both home runs, came in the same game last April.

As for a potential Game 3, former Dodger Josh Lindblom and Adrian Houser are the traditional starting options for Milwaukee, but the Brewers might opt to give the entire game over to their bullpen. The determining factor there could be the pen’s workload in Games 1 and 2. One thing to remember about this series, as well as this years’ Division and Championship Series, is that there are no off-days. Bullpen fatigue could be major factor throughout this year’s postseason.

Official rosters have yet to be announced. The Brewers have a couple of injury variables, as lefty designated hitter Dan Vogelbach appeared to pull a hamstring in the season’s final game, while lefty-hitting outfielder Ben Gamel, who missed the season’s final week-plus with a quadriceps strain, could be ready to return to action. If Gamel returns, but Vogelbach can’t go, look for Gamel to start in right field, pushing Ryan Braun to designated hitter. There may also be some additional tweaks to the last few spots on each team’s 28-man roster, but from what we know now, this is how the Brewers are likely to line up for this series:

R – Avisaíl García (CF)

L – Christian Yelich (LF)

R – Ryan Braun (RF)

L – Dan Vogelbach (DH)

R – Keston Hiura (2B)

R – Jedd Gyorko (1B)

L – Eric Sogard (3B)

R – Orlando Arcia

R – Jacob Nottingham (C)

Bench:

IF – Luis Urías (R)

IF – Ryon Healy (R)

UT – Jace Peterson (L)

OF – Tyrone Taylor (R)

C – Omar Narváez (L)

Bullpen:

L – Josh Hader

R – Devin Williams

R – Eric Yardley

L – Alex Claudio

R – Freddy Peralta

R – Corey Knebel

R – Drew Rasmussen

R – Ray Black

R – Justin Topa

R – Adrian Houser

R – Josh Lindblom

Lineup vs. LHP:

R – Avisaíl García (CF)

L – Christian Yelich (LF)

R – Ryan Braun (DH)

R – Jedd Gyorko (1B)

R – Keston Hiura (2B)

R – Tyrone Taylor (RF)

R – Orlando Arcia

R – Luis Urías (3B)

R – Jacob Nottingham (C)

Yelich will likely be the only lefty in the lineup against Kershaw in Game 2, but he has gone 9-for-22 (.409) with four walks, a double, and two home runs in his career against the Dodgers’ ace. García, meanwhile, has faced Kershaw six times and has yet to make an out against him (a double, three singles, and two walks).

Here’s a tentative Dodgers’ roster based on how they finished the regular season, though they seem likely to swap out at least one of the 12 relievers listed below (most likely lefty Alex Wood) to expand their bench with a bat (Matt Beaty or Zach McKinstry), a third catcher (Keibert Ruiz), or pinch-runner Terrance Gore. One of those four might also take the place of Gavin Lux, who slumped in September and fell into disuse over the season’s final week:

R – Mookie Betts (RF)

L – Corey Seager (SS)

R – Justin Turner (3B)

L – Max Muncy (1B)

R – Will Smith (C)

L – Cody Bellinger (CF)

R – A.J. Pollock (DH)

R – Chris Taylor (2B)

L – Joc Pederson (LF)

Bench:

UT – Kiké Hernández (R)

3B – Edwin Ríos (L)

2B – Gavin Lux (L)

C – Austin Barnes (R)

Rotation:

R – Walker Buehler

L – Clayton Kershaw

R – Tony Gonsolin

Bullpen:

R – Kenley Jansen

R – Pedro Báez

R – Blake Treinen

R – Dylan Floro

R – Joe Kelly

L – Jake McGee

R – Brudsar Graterol

L – Adam Kolarek

L – Victor González

L – Alex Wood

L – Julio Urías

R – Dustin May