Dodgers News: Pundit isn't Sold on the JD Martinez Rebound

Is what we're seeing from J.D. Martinez the real deal?

Five-time all-star J.D. Martinez has been an exceptional addition for the Dodgers this season. Despite missing a few weeks with a back injury, the slugger is still second on the team in extra base hits with 35, three behind NL MVP frontrunner Freddie Freeman (in 16 fewer games). J.D. leads the team in runs batted in (47) and slugging % (.619) and appears on his way toward his sixth all-star selection.

When the Dodgers signed him over Justin Turner in the offseason, there was some doubt about his ability to return to his former glory. His wRC+ had declined each year since his monster 2018 season with the Red Sox. In 2022, he posted his worst full season wOBA (.343) in nearly a decade.

So far in his reunion with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, he's back to being a legitimate nightmare for opposing pitchers. And his rebound by all accounts looks to be the real deal. That is, to everyone but ESPN Senior Writer David Schoenfield.

In a recent column, Schoenfield questions how real Martinez's success has been and, more technically, how sustainable it is going forward. Here's what he had to say.

Early results are NOT REAL. I just don't see him maintaining a 146 OPS+ at age 35 after not hitting at that level the past five seasons. The Dodgers' analytical staff certainly might be helping him, but this looks like a case where the rest of his season projections should be folded in, so something like a .260 average and sub-.500 slugging moving forward is probably more realistic.

The writer explains his work, pointing out a few red flags that could be a trigger toward regression.

His walk rate, which has hovered between 8.7% and 11% in recent seasons, is down to 5.1%. His swing-and-miss rate is all the way down to the 10th percentile. This is the type of profile pitchers usually learn to exploit, but Martinez is still doing damage. ... He slugged .418 against four-seam fastballs last season but is torturing them at a .726 clip in 2023.

The walk rate I'll dismiss a bit. That 11% figure is from back during Martinez's torrid stretch from 2017-2019. He hit 124 home runs over those three seasons, which is sure to have any pitcher feeling a bit hesitant to challenge him. That fastball slugging is something that could be a bit more worrisome.

One important overall factor for J.D. is that this is the healthiest he's felt since the 2018 postseason. In the past, he mentioned a rolled ankle suffered during the 2018 World Series against the Dodgers as an injury that led to him falling into bad habits at the plate. Now healthy and reunited with Van Scoyoc, we appear to be seeing more of the fruits of his labor over a completely flukey season.

And the best part is, the Dodgers signed him for only $10 million this season.