Dodgers Projected Starting Rotation By the Numbers

A look at the what the five Dodgers starters did last year and a look ahead to what could be in store this season.

This past Sunday, Dave Roberts named his starting rotation. It wasn't in a nationally televised press conference, but he did outline the five arms who will begin the season on the starting staff. Let's take a look at the five names who will take the bump in the Dodgers first week. 

Walker Buehler

Oct 17, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler (21) reacts after a strike out in the sixth inning against the Atlanta Braves during game six of the 2020 NLCS at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

This is Buehler's first year as the Dodgers official ace. Roberts named Buehler as the Opening Day starter earlier this month. It's an effective passing of the torch from Clayton Kershaw to Buehler.

Last season, Walker was a Cy Young front runner for much of the year before falling apart in September. He finished with a 2.47 ERA and led the majors in starts (33). The heavy workload resulted in an uncharacteristically uneven playoff run for Walker. It will be interesting to see how his arm responds after a full offseason. 

Still, it would be a shock if Buehler wasn't right back in the Cy Young race in 2022.

Julio Urías

Jul 20, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Julio Urias (7) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of Cy Young contenders, Urías led the majors in wins (20) last season and finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting. It was his first full season as a regular starter and now that the training wheels are off, Urías is thriving. He posted a 2.96 ERA last season and was just a few strikeouts shy of reaching the double-century mark (195). 

His 3.13 FIP last year indicates he got some lucky bounces, but another season with a sub-3.00 ERA isn't out of the question. 

It's easy to forget since he was debuted at the ripe old age of 18, but Urías is only 25. The best may be yet to come.

Clayton Kershaw

Oct 1, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during Game 2 of the National League Wild Card playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately for Mr. Kershaw, his best days are behind him, but that doesn't mean he still can't be a highly effective starter. Provided his elbow doesn't start barking again, he should be able to out perform his 3.55 ERA last year. 

Kershaw's 3.00 FIP and 1.02 WHIP lsat season indicate that he can still pitch better than most. The Dodgers will manage him carefully, but securing his first All-Star appearance since 2019 isn't a stretch by any means.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is by far the biggest question mark on the Dodgers starting staff. Last year, Heaney made 23 starts total between his time with the Angels and Yankees. Combined with his relief appearances, Heaney compiled a sky-high 5.83 ERA and produced a ERA+ of 76.

Among starting pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched last season, Heaney had the sixth-worst HR/9 (1.88) and the sixth-worst ERA (5.48).

The Dodgers are banking on their past history of fixing veteran pitchers to positively affect Heaney's 2022 production. 

Tony Gonsolin

Oct 21, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (46) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning in game two of the 2020 World Series at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It looks like 2022 will finally be the first 162-game season where the Dodgers install Gonsolin as a full-time starter. He struggled with injuries last year, but still posted a 3.23 ERA in 55.2 IP. His injuries likely played a role in his poor command throughout the year (5.5 BB/9).

Manager Dave Roberts' and the Dodgers front office have liked what they've seen in spring training from a control perspective. Gonsolin has not issued a walk in 5.1 IP.

This season could be the sequel to Gonsolin's breakout performance in 2020 that netted him a top-five finish in NL rookie of the year voting.  

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