Dodgers vs. Braves NLCS Preview

Dodgers vs. Braves NLCS Preview

When you know you’re the best, you want to beat the best to prove it. The Dodgers are getting that chance as their postseason path has taken them through the team with the second-best record in the National League (the 37-23 Padres, whom they just dispatched in a Division Series sweep) and now, in the National League Championship Series, the team with the third-best record, the 35-25 NL East champion Braves. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 on thus far this postseason, making this NLCS a confrontation between the only two teams that remain undefeated in this postseason. The best-of-seven series commences Monday night at Arlington’s Globe Life Park and will proceed, like the Division Series, without travel or off-days, with the winner advancing to the World Series.

As someone who watched the majority of both team’s games, the 2020 Dodgers remind me very much of the 1998 Yankees, a team some consider the greatest of all time. The ’98 Yankees won 114 games in the regular season. This Dodgers’ regular-season winning percentage translates to 116 wins over a 162-game season. Both teams won so reliably, and so often bullied opponents’ bullpens, that games they were losing by a small margins in the middle innings felt like sure wins, and most often were. Both impressed as much with their depth as their top-line talent, and both made quick work of their postseason opponents. The ’98 Yankees’ only playoff losses came in the League Championship Series, when they lost two of the first three games to a Cleveland team that had won its fourth-straight division title that year. New York then won the next three games to claim the pennant and swept the World Series. It wouldn’t surprise me to see these Braves, coming off their third-straight division title, give the Dodgers a similar scare.

The Braves’ lineup doesn’t need much of an introduction. The top three run-scoring teams in the majors this year were, in order, the Dodgers, Braves, and Padres. The Dodgers edged the Braves for the top spot by a single run, 349 to 348. Like the Dodgers, the Braves give their opponents the goods right away, leading off 22-year-old five-tool sensation Ronald Acuña Jr. and following him up with perennial MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, and then 2020’s NL leader in home runs (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145), designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Batting cleanup is catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who had a 138 OPS+ during the regular season and just posted an OPS north of 2.000 in the Division Series against the Marlins; then speedy switch-hitter Ozzie Albies; slugger Adam Duvall, who hit 16 home runs in the shortened season, matching Dodgers team leaders Mookie Betts and A.J. Pollock; and shortstop Dansby Swanson, who had his best season at the plate this year in his age-26 season. Atlanta’s lineup only eases up slightly in the final two spots with veteran lefty Nick Markakis, author of 2,388 career hits, and 23-year-old sophomore third baseman Austin Riley.

What distinguishes the Braves most from the Dodgers and Padres is the path their pitching has taken to this point. The Dodgers were the stingiest team in the National League this year and led the majors with a 3.02 staff ERA. The Padres had an excellent rotation during the regular season and shored up a shaky bullpen as the season progressed, but injuries to their top starters in the season’s final weeks undermined their pitching in the postseason.

The Braves, by contrast, struggled to piece together a viable rotation during the regular season. After new addition Félix Hernández opted out of the season and arm issues their other big addition, Cole Hamels (he managed just 3 1/3 innings all season), Mike Foltynewicz was dropped from the roster after a single bad outing, and incumbent ace Mike Soroka tore his Achilles in his third start of the year. Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, and Robbie Erlin struggled in their attempts to fill in, and journeyman Tommy Milone succumbed to an arm injury of his own. Fourteen different pitchers started a game for the Braves in this 60-game season, Hernández not among them. Max Fried emerged as a Cy Young contender in his second “full” season in the Braves’ rotation, but it wasn’t until late August that they established a reliable and effective second starter behind him, and Fried had a couple of injury scares of his own in September.

Thus far this postseason, however, the lefty Fried and rookie righties Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright (ages 26, 22 and 24, respectively) have led the way in one of the most dominant team pitching performances in playoff history. Not only have the Braves won all five of their playoff games to this point, they have held their opponents scoreless in four of those five, a feat matched only by the 1905 Giants of Christy Mathewson and Iron Joe McGinnity. The Reds didn’t manage a single run in the Wild Card Series, and the Marlins only scored in Game 1 of the Division Series.

Anderson, a changeup artist from upstate New York who was the third-overall pick in the 2016 draft and made his major league debut on August 26, has struck out 17 against three walks in 11 2/3 scoreless innings this postseason (that on top of a 1.95 ERA in six starts during the regular season). Wright, a Vanderbilt product whom the Braves made the fifth-overall pick in the 2017 draft, wasn’t as impressive in eight regular season starts, but his mid-90s velocity and well-mixed sinker/slider/change/curve repertoire translated to six scoreless frames against Miami in the Division Series clincher. Fried, who has a similar mix from the left side and is yet another top-10 draft pick, acquired by the Braves from the Padres in the December 2014 Justin Upton trade, is the only Atlanta starter to allow a run this postseason, but that came in his second start. After putting up a 2.25 ERA and allowing just two home runs in 56 innings during the regular season, the lefty groundballer set the tone for the Braves’ staff with seven scoreless frames against the Reds in the first game of their Wild Card Series.

The Braves’ bullpen, meanwhile, has allowed just one run in 20 1/3 innings this postseason, striking out 26 against just four walks and not allowing a single home run. The pitchers who contributed to that performance include veteran closer Mark Melancon, lefties and former closers Will Smith and A.J. Minter, righty and former closer Shane Greene, lefty Tyler Matzek, who overcame the yips to return to the majors this year after a four-year absence, veteran righty sidearmer Darren O’Day, and conventional righties Chris Martin and Jacob Webb. Three other rostered relievers have thus far gone unused.

The story heading into this series is thus the Dodgers’ major-league-best offense, which has averaged six runs per game this far this postseason after averaging 5.8 during the regular season, against the Braves’ pitching, which has allowed a total of five runs in five games this postseason. Something there has to give, and the same is true in the other half of each inning, with the Dodgers’ stingy pitching (just 11 runs allowed this postseason, an average of 2.2 per game) against the Braves’ powerful offense.

As impressive as the Braves’ pitchers have been thus far, this series will test them in a way they have not yet been this postseason. To begin with, both the Reds and Marlins were in the bottom third of the majors in runs scored during the regular season. Perhaps even more importantly, with a minimum of four games in four days and potentially seven games in seven days, the Braves’, who have yet to play more than three consecutive games this postseason, will have their depth exposed. Though neither team has announced its rotation plans beyond Game 3 as I write this, the Dodgers come into this series with five viable starting pitchers—Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías, and Dustin May. The Braves have confidence in Fried, Anderson, and Wright, but Wright posted a 5.21 ERA during the regular season with poor peripherals, and, after him, their options are unproven 22-year-old righties Bryse Wilson and Huascar Ynoa and veteran swing-man Josh Tomlin.

Given how this postseason has unfolded, a bullpen game in either Game 4 or 5 seems likely for Atlanta, but that will tax their pen in a series that lacks an off-day. On paper, this series should be a cold shot of reality for the Braves’ pitching staff, but don’t put it past the Braves lineup to out-slug whatever shortcomings are revealed by their hurlers.

Here is the schedule and the announced starters (all stats are postseason only). All games will be on FOX. Games 5 through 7 will be played only if necessary:

Game 1 – Mon. 10/12, 5:08 p.m. PT: LHP Max Fried (3.27 ERA, 11 IP) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (3.38 ERA, 8 IP)

Game 2 – Tues. 10/13, TBA: RHP Ian Anderson (0.00 ERA, 11 1/3 IP) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (1.93 ERA, 14 IP)

Game 3 – Wed. 10/14, TBA: RHP Kyle Wright (0.00 ERA, 6 IP) vs. TBA

Game 4 – Thur. 10/15, TBA: TBA

Game 5 – Fri. 10/16, TBA: TBA

Game 6 – Sat. 10/17, TBA: Fried vs. Buehler

Game 7 – Sun. 10/18, TBA: Anderson vs. Kershaw

Rosters

What follows are the rosters each team used for the Division Series. They are subject to change for the NLCS, with those decisions due mid-day on Monday.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves use the same lineup against righties and lefties and rarely use their bench with the exception of employing 21-year-old rookie Cristian Pache as a defensive replacement for 36-year-old Nick Markakis late in games.

Typical lineup:

R – Ronald Acuña Jr. (CF)

L – Freddy Freeman (1B)

R – Marcell Ozuna (DH)

R – Travis d’Arnaud (C)

S – Ozzie Albies (SS)

R – Adam Duvall (LF)

R – Dansby Swanson (SS)

L – Nick Markakis (RF)

R – Austin Riley (3B)

Bench:

UT – Charlie Culberson (R)

3B/1B – Pablo Sandoval (S)

OF – Cristian Pache (R)

C – Tyler Flowers (R)

Starting Pitchers:

L – Max Fried

R – Ian Anderson

R – Kyle Wright

R – Bryse Wilson

R – Huascar Ynoa

Bullpen:

R – Mark Melancon

R – Chris Martin

L – Tyler Matzek

L – Will Smith

R – Darren O’Day

R – Shane Greene

L – A.J. Minter

R – Jacob Webb

L – Grant Dayton

R – Josh Tomlin

Los Angeles Dodgers

Typical lineup:

R – Mookie Betts (RF)

L – Corey Seager (SS)

R – Justin Turner (3B)

L – Max Muncy (1B)

R – Will Smith (C)

L – Cody Bellinger (CF)

R – A.J. Pollock (LF)

L – Joc Pederson (DH)

R – Chris Taylor (2B)

Bench:

UT – Kiké Hernández (R)

1B – Matt Beaty (L)

2B – Gavin Lux (L)

OF – Terrance Gore (R)

C – Austin Barnes (R)

Barnes will catch Clayton Kershaw, pushing Smith to DH and Pederson to the bench. Pederson will also sit against the lefty Fried, likely with Chris Taylor moving to left field or DH and Kiké Hernández starting at second.

Third baseman Edwin Ríos was left off the Division Series roster due to a groin injury. If healthy, he’ll return for the NLCS. Pinch-runner Gore has been on both the Wild Card and Division Series rosters but has yet to appear in a game. Beaty replaced Ríos for the Division Series but was not used. Either could be removed to make room for Ríos’s return.

Starting Pitchers:

R – Walker Buehler

L – Clayton Kershaw

R – Tony Gonsolin

L – Julio Urías

R – Dustin May

Bullpen:

R – Kenley Jansen

R – Blake Treinen

L – Jake McGee

L – Adam Kolarek

R – Brudsar Graterol

R – Dylan Floro

R – Pedro Báez

R – Joe Kelly

L – Victor González

Though he was one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, Gonsolin has yet to appear in a game in this postseason. The same is true of lefty reliever Jake McGee, who was one of the Dodgers’ best relievers during the regular season. Both should see action in this series, with Gonsolin, who threw a simulated game on Saturday, likely to draw a start or bulk-innings assignment in one of the middle games.

Cliff Corcoran covers baseball for The Athletic and is a former lead baseball writer for SI.com. The co-author or editor of 13 baseball books, including seven Baseball Prospectus annuals, he has also written for USA Today, SB Nation, Baseball Prospectus, Sports on Earth, The Hardball Times, and Boston.com, among others. He has been a semi-regular guest analyst on the MLB Network and can be heard more regularly on The Infinite Inning podcast with Steven Goldman. Follow Cliff on Twitter @CliffCorcoran.

Video courtesy of Spectrum SportsNetLA/Los Angeles Dodgers.