2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Jimmy Nelson

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Jimmy Nelson

Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Since I'm better at apologizing than A.J. Hinch, I'm going to say "I'm sorry" for this in advance, because it's going to be harsh. Jimmy Nelson is a poor man's Tom Koehler. Or a rich man's Brandon Beachy.

The Dodgers signed Nelson to what was universally tabbed a "low-risk" deal in January. It calls for a $750,000 guarantee in 2020 with incentives attached and a $1 million option (or club buyout of $250,000) plus additonal incentives in 2021.

Sure, it's low risk, but when you consider that Ross Stripling is (allegedly, with Joc Pederson) being traded to the Angels in what is clearly a salary dump, the low-risk label no longer applies. Stripling was sitting pretty with a $2.1 million salary for 2020, which in the grand scheme of things is peanuts. Or Cracker Jack.

In four years, Strip has given Los Angeles 136 games, 52 starts, 387 innings, a 3.51 ERA, a 1.196 WHIP and a community-full of good vibrations. Nelson's best year was 2017, where he contributed a 175 1/3 innings, a 3.49, 1.249 and a 12-6 record to the Milwaukee cause. He pitched between 175 and 180 innings in 2015, 2016 and 2017, which is significant. He also led baseball in walks during one of those campaigns, while leading the sport in HBPs twice. The Dodgers are hoping for a duplication of Nelson's 2017 season, which was the lone standout of his four in big leagues.

He missed the last few weeks of the 2017 season and all of 2018 with a partially torn labrum and strained rotator cuff of his right (throwing) shoulder. Serious stuff. Returning last summer, Nelson made 17 appearances (and four starts) for the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate San Antonio Missions, posting a 4.79, 1.427 with 58 Ks in 41 1/3. Promoted to the big club in September, he made three starts, with a 6.95 and a 1.909.

Baseball-Reference.com projections:

3-3 , 4.66 ERA, 58 IP, 8 HR, 23 BB, 62 K, 1.397 WHIP., 47% Rel. (see BR's explanation here).

A bit more optimistic, Steamer projects the following:

4-3, 3.96, 48 G, 3 GS, 11 Holds, 63 IP, 8 HR, 65 K.

My projection:

2-4, 4.75, 30 G, 5 GS, 5 Holds, 50 IP, 10 HR, 1.475.

Comment: In a vacuum, yes, the Nelson signing is low-risk, high reward. But the chances of that high reward aren't great. And baseball doesn't exist in a vacuum. L.A. handed Stripling (and Joc) to the Angels on a silver platter. Nelson and Stripling both on the 2020 Dodgers? I'm down. But Nelson instead of Stripling? No. That's not low-risk, high reward. That's high-risk, maybe-kinda-sorta-might-work-out reward.