2020 Ex-Dodgers Player Projections: Joc Pederson

2020 Ex-Dodgers Player Projections: Joc Pederson

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The best laid plans of mice and men, right Vin? We had this projection piece ready to go when Joc Pederson went from mostly beloved Dodger to soon-to-be-very-much-appreciated Angel. So I slapped an "Ex" in front of "Dodgers" and made an adjustment or two for for your consideration.

Back in January of 2019, a couple of weeks before the Dodgers set out for Spring Training, I took my dog to the Sepulveda Basin Off-Leash Dog Park and landed a picture with Joc Pederson, who was there in his role as spokesman for Dodgers Community Week. I wished Joc a good 2019 season. That same day, Los Angeles signed A.J. Pollock to a five-year $60 million free agent deal, so there was a fair-to-middling chance Pederson might spend the upcoming season with another club.

You know the rest: Joc went on to hit .249/.339/.538, with 36 home runs and 74 RBIs primarily from the leadoff spot. Given his 2019 “production” against left-handers (.224/.240/.265 with 11 hits, 0 HR, 2 RBI in 49 at bats), Young Joc cemented a reputation -- at least in the minds of those filling out the lineup card -- of being a player who should rarely face a southpaw. But lest we forget the .249/.349/.571, 36 and 73 versus right-hand pitching and the fact that there are twice as many righty pitchers than left.

It's a moot point thanks to the Mookie Betts and David Price arrivals and a correspondingly odd decision by the front office to shed dingers ...er, salaries. Joc is now an Angel. He's worthy of our attention all the same.

It's too early to see a change in the forecasts based on a player playing in a different division and league, etc., so we'll go with the numbers as is.

Baseball Reference projects Pederson's 2020 season this way:

501 PA, 440 AB, 75 R, 29 HR, 67 RBI, .245/.332/.505. 

A bit more optimistic, Steamer projects the following:

502 PA, 32 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, .256/.344/.538. In other words, they’re projecting a plateau. In the NL West anyway.

Comment: Cody Bellinger went into camp last spring with a chip on his shoulder. He wanted to put up a more competitive at bat vs. lefties. And that turned out pretty well. 

Independent of his team's colors, Pederson will be playing for a free agent contract in 2020, so there's plenty of incentive to improve wherever possible.. But the struggles with LHP is pretty much baked in. He'll benefit from hitting in a nine-man American League lineup, and from playing in the AL generally, however. So here's my forecast .260/.345/.525, with 40 and 85.