2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Will Smith

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Will Smith

Aug 27, 2019; San Diego, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith (16) looks on before the game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

By the time the Dodgers were tied 3-3 with the Washington Nationals in the bottom of the 9th of Game 5 of the National League Division Series, Will Smith had already endeared himself to the fan base.

With one swing of the bat, he nearly gave Dave Roberts and Clayton Kershaw a chance at redemption in the upcoming NLCS. It also would’ve prevented Howie Kendrick’s back-breaking grandslam in the following inning from ever happening.

Considering how clutch Smith was in 2019, I expected the ball he hit off of Daniel Hudson to clear the wall by plenty. Instead, it died on the warning track along with Dodgers fans’ hopes. As a result, he ended his first postseason going 1-13, with three walks and five strikeouts. I imagine A.J. Pollock is somewhere reading this thinking, “man, I wish I could’ve put up numbers like that.”

Enough sap for now. I believe the Fresh Prince of Chavez Ravine has the potential to turn into a 2012 version of Buster Posey. But before we start talking about Smith hitting 24 bombs and driving in 103 runs, I’d like to see the soon-to-be 25-year-old handle a full season as the Dodgers’ starting catcher.

He stands to improve in 2020, albeit slightly, according to Baseball-Refence.com’s projections:

298 PA (66 more than ‘19), 262 AB, 30 R, 68 H, 27 BB, 14 2B, 17 HR, 51 RBI, 3 SB, .260/.337/.852.

BR has a reliability percentage built into its projections. The “rel” for Smith is 45%. (Per the website: Rel, "shows how much of the forecast is based on the player's performance, and how much is regression to the mean). For example, Smith has a 55% regression to the mean.

Here are Steamer’s 2020 projections: 397 PA (201 more than ‘19), 351 AB, 47 R, 79 H, 35 BB, 15 2B, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 3 SB, .225/.304/.744.

Here is Jake’s take: 350 PA, 300 AB, 46 R, 80 H, 30 BB, 21 2B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 2 SB, .266/.340/.863.

I’d say my projections are somewhere in between BR and Steamer and I’ll tell you why. I strongly believe Will Smith wasn’t just a flash-in-the-pan. However, based on my numbers, he’ll make 154 more plate appearances in 2020, which means the league will get a much better look at him.

We saw a glimpse of that toward the end of the season. After Smith had arguably his most impressive month in August, smacking 8 HR, 19 RBI and an OPS of 1.002 over 24 games, he struggled heading into the postseason. In 17 games in September and October he went a combined 10-57 (.175 BA), 2 HR and 8 RBI. His OPS was .582 over that stretch and he averaged a strikeout per game.

At the same time, after watching Smith over the course of his whole season, 54 games, I noticed his plate-discipline and calmness in big spots that you’d expect to see from some 10-year veterans. With two  outs and runners in scoring position he hit .409 (9-22), 3 HR, 15 RBI and a 1.473 OPS. Not letting the moment overwhelm him is the type of stuff you can’t teach and I don’t see those abilities suddenly disappearing this season.

The Dodgers don’t have to rely on Smith to carry the team offensively; they already have enough fire power without him. That’ll take some pressure off of him going into his first full season as the starting catcher. I would be perfectly content if his numbers are consistent with the projections, provided he continues to hit well in the clutch and does a good job handling the pitching staff.