What Would Luis Robert Jr, Garrett Crochet Trade Cost Dodgers? Former GM Takes a Guess

Analyzing a 10-player trade proposal is complicated. Here's a simple way to think about it.

Jun 15, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Chicago White Sox first base Andrew Vaughn (25) slaps hands with Chicago White Sox outfielder Tommy Pham (28) and Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (88) after hitting a three run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

How many Chicago White Sox are too many for one team to acquire at the trade deadline?

For a team that's 19-54 — by far the worst record in Major League Baseball — several of their players sure seem to line up with what the Dodgers could use at this year's trade deadline. So, how many White Sox might the Dodgers make a play for between now and July 30?

According to former MLB general manager Jim Bowden, writing for The Athletic, a few!

Bowden proposed a 10-player trade between the two teams that would, if executed, probably knock out all of the Dodgers' trade-deadline needs in one fell swoop:

Dodgers acquire CF Luis Robert Jr., LHP Garrett Crochet and RHP Michael Kopech from White Sox for RHP Nick Frasso, LHP Justin Wrobleski, RHP Kyle Hurt, RHP Payton Martin, C Dalton Rushing, OF Andy Pages and SS Emil Morales

- The Athletic's Jim Bowden

The White Sox would need very little to justify this trade, as giving up on three of their better players for seven players — seven! — all with six years of team control is practically a no-brainer. Chicago is not in danger of contending for several more years. Any deal that nets them seven prospects, including two (Hurt, when healthy and Pages) with 26-man roster spots on one of the better teams in MLB is smart. The only question would be whether they have a competing offer on the table, and if they like the other team's prospects more.

For the Dodgers, the calculus is quite a bit trickier. Robert and Crochet are good major league players now. Robert, 26, hit 38 home runs and made the American League All-Star team in 2023, his first full major league season. Whatever he lacks in on-base ability (172 strikeouts, .315 OBP in 2023) he makes up for with plus defense in center field and base-stealing ability (20-for-24 in stolen bases last season).

A rather large question mark hangs over Robert's production to this point in the season. He's hitting .186 with a .260 OBP. While the power is there (seven homers in 19 games), his contact rate has declined for the second straight season. So has his swing rate on pitches in the zone (51.8 percent, down from 58.3 percent in 2023). Perhaps the Dodgers are willing to bet on improvement merely by pairing Robert with their coaches — including a Robert (Van Scoyoc) and a (Dave) Roberts.

Robert's contract (six years, $50 million) expires after next season but comes with team options for 2026 and 2027, a potentially team-friendly deal.

Projecting the contributions of Crochet and Kopech, two pitchers with wildly inconsistent track records, is where this deal either holds up or breaks down.

Crochet, 24, is in his first full season as a starting pitcher after having spent the previous three seasons in the White Sox's bullpen. The conversion has been a swimming success, as he's currently 6-5 with a 3.16 ERA, and even better-looking numbers under the hood.

The 6-foot-6 left-hander is averaging roughly 5.1 innings per start while striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings and walking only 2. Crochet's expected numbers are practically glistening (2.36 xERA, 2.43 xFIP, per Statcast) and somehow his velocity has ticked up (97.0 mph average) despite throwing more pitches per outing.

The problem for every team in the Crochet market is the lack of a track record. All of Crochet's 15 professional starts have come this season. The problem for the Dodgers is more specific.

The team is already counting on the returns of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Clayton Kershaw from the injured list before October. Their rotation is already full (Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Gavin Stone, James Paxton, Bobby Miller). Including Paxton, who's 35 and under contract for just this year, makes more sense in any deal to bring a starting pitcher to Los Angeles. But that's not what Bowden has proposed here.

What's more, the Dodgers are conceivably welcoming Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin back to their starting rotation at some point in 2025. Kershaw has a contract option for next year, too. Buehler is a free agent after this season, but there are other teams that will need the rotation depth more than the Dodgers. While this proposed package might encourage the White Sox to move Crochet, it isn't clear the Dodgers would have the motivation.

Kopech is effectively Chicago's closer by default, the best relief pitcher on a bad team. His strikeout percentage (32.3) is nearly elite, as is his 98.7 mph average fastball velocity, which he pairs with a cutter and a slider. But he's been the victim of a wildly inflated 24.1 percent of fly balls resulting in home runs — perhaps another fluke the Dodgers believe will regress to the mean.

Over the previous three seasons, Kopech has done a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark. And while his 13.5 percent walk rate could us some work, he's shown better command in the past (27.7 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate in 44 games in 2021).

Will the real Kopech, Robert and Crochet please stand up? The Dodgers might not be willing to trade seven of their better prospects to find out.