Why Clayton Kershaw’s Postseason Record Will Not Affect His Hall of Fame Chances

Why Clayton Kershaw’s Postseason Record Will Not Affect His Hall of Fame Chances

Clayton Kershaw’s struggles in the postseason are well-known.

While the Dodgers ace might be the greatest pitcher of his generation in the regular season, with a 169-74 win-loss record, 2.44 ERA, and 65.4 WAR, it’s often a different story for him come playoff time.

Overall, Kershaw has a lifetime 9-11 record in the playoffs with a 4.43 ERA. His struggles have been especially pronounced in the World Series, where he’s gone 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in an admittedly small sample size of 26.2 innings, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Still, these struggles are extremely unlikely to have any kind of impact on Kershaw’s eventual Hall of Fame case.

Earliest Kershaw would be enshrined: Players must be retired at least five years to be considered by the Baseball Writers Association of America, with enshrinement possible the summer after voting each year.

This means, should Kershaw pitch through the 2028 season when he turns 40, he’d be eligible for consideration in the fall of 2033, with enshrinement possible in the summer of 2034. Obviously, if Kershaw retires sooner, the clock starts sooner. Realistically, though, it’s probably 10-15 years before he gets a plaque.

Why Kershaw is likely a shoo-in already: Two words: Sandy Koufax.

No matter what Kershaw does from this point on, he has a peak case to match the most-celebrated pitcher in Dodger history. While this might sound blasphemous, consider the following:

• From 1962-66, Koufax went 111-34 with a 1.95 ERA and 167 ERA+, 40.7 WAR in 1,377 innings, and 27.7 Wins Above Average. He also won three Cy Young Awards (all three of which were won when there was only one Cy for both leagues) and one National League Most Valuable Player award.

• From 2011-15, Kershaw might have seemed slightly less impressive, going 88-33 with 2.11 ERA and 36.3 WAR in 1,128 innings. But he matched Koufax for Cy Youngs and MVPs, nearly matched him for Wins Above Average, with 27.3, in 249 fewer innings, and bested him with a 172 ERA+.

A superb peak case was enough to make Koufax an easy first-ballot selection with the writers in 1972 when he received 86.9 percent of the vote (becoming just the 10th first-ballot selection to that point (after Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Jackie Robinson, Bob Feller, Ted Williams, and Stan Musial.)

FIrst-ballot selections have become significantly more common for the Baseball Hall of Fame since 1972. Accordingly, barring unforeseen catastrophe, Kershaw will likely enjoy the same accolades in 10-15 years. Almost certainly, he’s an easy first-ballot selection. And his case will likely get stronger from this point, with Kershaw posting a 16-5 record and 3.03 ERA season last year as he chugs toward 200 career wins.

It’s probably worth noting that Koufax was lights-out in the postseason, going 4-3 with 0.95 ERA lifetime in World Series play, in the era before lower-tier playoff games. Twice, in 1963 and 1965, Koufax was World Series MVP.

With Kershaw having turned 32 in March, there’s still time for him to find similar postseason success.

Graham Womack has written about baseball for a variety of publications, including Sporting News, the San Francisco Chronicle, and Sports on Earth. He lives in Northern California with his wife Kate and their animals.