Five MLB Teams Ready to Make Surprise Playoff Runs in 2025

For nearly two straight decades, one or more teams have put together a loser-to-postseason turnaround. Which clubs could pull it off this season?

After winning the World Series two seasons ago, the Rangers took a dip in 2024, but seem poised to get back to their winning ways this year. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s one of the surest annual calls in baseball, as reliable to count on as no pitcher throwing 240 innings. It’s the Law of the Surprise Playoff Team: Every playoff field will include at least one team—usually more—that had a losing record the previous season.

I’ve been tracking this law since 2014, which was so long ago that Johnny Cueto and David Price each topped 240 innings. Nobody has done it since. (There were 15 such workhorses in 1992.) Likewise, the Law of the SPT never disappoints—and it goes even farther back than the disappearance of the workhorse starter. The evidence is solid:

• The playoff field has included at least one SPT every year for 19 straight seasons and 29 of the 30 seasons of the Wild Card Era. There were four last year (Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets).
• The average annual number of playoff spots filled by SPTs is 2.4 (72 in 30 years). But with expanded playoff fields, that number is even higher: 3.8 since 2020 (19 in five years).
• Managerial changes continue to play a big role in SPTs. In the Wild Card Era, 39% of SPTs had a new manager (28 of 72), including 55% over the past three seasons (six of 11).

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Every year I’ve been identifying the teams most likely to jump from a losing record into the playoffs. The most important factors to consider are 1. A change in managers. 2. Expected improvement in one-run games, and 3. Expected improvement in run prevention, which tends to be a better indicator than expected run production.

My top four picks last year, starting with most likely to make the postseason, were 1. Tigers. 2. Guardians. 3. Giants. 4. Mets. All made the playoffs but the Giants. The Royals pulled off a stunning 30-win improvement to be the fourth SPT.

My top three picks the previous year were 1. Rangers. 2. Twins. 3. Diamondbacks. All made the playoffs, with the Rangers and D-Backs forging an all-SPT World Series.

Overall, of my top two annual most likely SPTs (with no picks in 2020–21 due to COVID-19), I correctly picked 11 out of 18, a .611 winning percentage, including five of the past six (.833).

Playoff predictions abound this week. Each one should include at least one or two of the 12 losing teams from last year. Which ones have the best chance to be playing in October? Here are this year’s picks for most likely to surprise:

1. Texas Rangers (78–84)

Yes, injuries hurt them (even with money kicked in by the Mets, Texas paid Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer $62.47 million to make 12 starts). And the bullpen was an un-Bruce Bochy-like disaster (tied for 25th in ERA).

But the hidden reason why the Rangers sank from world champions to a 78-win non-contender was their inability to hit fastballs. Only the 121-loss White Sox slugged worse against two- and four-seamers. The additions of Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will help. So will a bounceback from a curious decline by Adolis García. He was the worst hitter in the majors last year against fastballs (.188, minimum 2,000 pitches).

Remember, run prevention plays a bigger role here than run production, and in deGrom, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Tyler Mahle, Texas has some high upside arms if it can keep them healthy. But in this case, the Rangers’ surprise element does count on a major upgrade in offense. The third-highest scoring offense in 2023 dropped to 18th last year.

De la Cruz and the Reds are poised to break into the postseason under a new manager in Terry Francona. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

2. Cincinnati Reds (77–85)

If you believe in the new manager and one-run game factors, this is your team. Cincinnati made a huge hire in getting Terry Francona. In his first season in Boston, the Red Sox improved by three wins and won the World Series. In his first season in Cleveland, his team improved by 24 wins and won a wild-card spot. The man makes a difference.

Last season the Reds were 15–28 in one-run games. Only the White Sox were worse. And only the White Sox (-7 wins) underachieved more based on their run totals than did the Reds (-5). SPTs the Mets (+.164), Guardians (+.111) and Tigers (+.052) last year all saw big gains in their one-run winning percentage.

Cincinnati has a rotation that needs to turn potential into results. Hunter Greene, 25, Andrew Abbott, 26, Nick Lodolo, 27, and Brady Singer, 28, have combined to pitch in 13 major league seasons but reached 162 innings only once. Shortstop Elly de la Cruz is ready to bust out as an MVP candidate, and infielder Matt McLain is good enough to be an All-Star. Cincinnati is loaded with players who should be entering their primes.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (76–86)

With a full season of Paul Skenes, the Pirates are going to be a factor into the second half. But do they have enough around him to avoid another collapse?

Last season, the Pirates entered August 55–53, but went 1–11 against the D-Backs, Padres and Dodgers and were cooked. The Pirates are the NL version of the Mariners: rich in young, cheap pitching but failing to find enough bats to take advantage of this rare window. Pittsburgh was a bottom seven offensive team last year and did little over the winter to significantly improve. The Pirates will need to hit on a midseason trade for help.

4. Tampa Bay Rays (80–82)

It’s difficult to figure out what to make of the Rays playing their home games in an outdoor minor league park, George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. On one hand, the place should be full on a nightly basis and the upgrades to the home clubhouse and training facilities are state of the art. The front-loaded home schedule should be an advantage, allowing a fast start.

On the other hand, they face a grind of mid-summer travel while trying to avoid the rain and heat of Tampa at that time and rainouts and delays will test their depth more than playing in a climate-controlled ballpark.

Still, you trust the pitching, which should be outstanding, the pedigree (the Rays had five straight playoff appearances until last year) and the chance that Junior Caminero can emerge quickly as an impact bat.

The Giants will need to see significant improvement in their defense and bullpen to win close games in 2025. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

5. San Francisco Giants (80–82)

Lather, rinse, repeat. The Giants are consistently mediocre. Over the past three years, they have won 80, 79 and 81 games. Their pitching, despite the hype and playing in a pitcher-friendly yard, has ranked 19th, 11th and 13th. Their offense has ranked 17th, 24th and 11th. 

If there was a plan here, there is nothing to build on. It’s going to take time for Buster Posey to change the culture here. Can he do it this quickly?

Bouncebacks from Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray will help, but can they get 50 to 55 starts from the veterans? Willy Adames is the strong, upbeat personality this unit needed, but without high-impact power hitters, San Francisco will have to win games on the margins, which means its defense (it wasn’t very good last year) and bullpen (a perfectly mediocre 15th) must be better.

The rest:

6. Toronto Blue Jays (74–88). 7. Oakland Athletics (69–93). 8. Washington Nationals (71–91). 9. Los Angeles Angels (63–99). 10. Colorado Rockies (61–101). 11. Miami Marlins (62–100) 12. Chicago White Sox (41–121).

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