How the SF Giants can still turn this offseason into a success
The SF Giants are trying to figure out what to do next. They lost out on their top two free-agent targets, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even after landing outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi's work this offseason is clearly far from others. I, alongside many, have spent the past week trying to figure out the best path forward via free agency if Yamamoto passed on San Francisco.
Yes, a trade for Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames would solve a lot of problems, but trying to gauge trade markets at this point in the offseason is nearly impossible. Banking on them to build a contender is a dangerous proposition. The question is can the Giants still have a victorious winter via free agency?
Padres ace Blake Snell pitches against the SF Giants at Oracle Park. (2023)
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
When contemplating potential moves, I approach them as if I were working in the Giants front office. What would I be willing to put my job on the line for? As I thought about the prospect of giving left-handed pitcher Blake Snell (#6-ranked free agent) at least a seven-year, $210 million contract or handing a six-year, $150 million deal to Matt Chapman (#7-ranked free agent), I was not finding myself inspired with a lot of confidence at first.
Over the course of the past few days, though, things began to shift. As I reflected more on the state of the Giants franchise and the reality of their situation, I realized the obvious answer was the right one.
It took me awhile to get here, but the Giants best path forward is signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman.
Here's what that would do to a potential 2024 Opening Day roster:
1. Jung-Hoo Lee, CF
2. Wilmer Flores, DH
3. Mike Yastrzemski, RF
4. Matt Chapman, 3B
5. LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B
6. Thairo Estrada, 2B
7. Michael Conforto, LF
8. Marco Luciano, SS
9. Patrick Bailey, C
Bench: Tom Murphy, Austin Slater, Mitch Haniger, Tyler Fitzgerald
SP1: Logan Webb
SP2: Blake Snell
SP3: Anthony DeSclafani
SP4: Kyle Harrison
SP5: Keaton Winn
Swingman: Ross Stripling
LR: Tristan Beck
MR: Erik Miller
MR: Luke Jackson
MR: Ryan Walker
SU: Taylor Rogers
SU: Tyler Rogers
CL: Camilo Doval
That roster is almost certainly not going to win the National League West, but it's far more formidable than I had taken the time to realize, especially when you consider the eventual return of Alex Cobb from injury alongside another season of upper minors opportunities for prospects like Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Mason Black, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, and Kai-Wei Teng to play their way into the mix. If Zaidi stays aggressive on the trade market, and finds a way to land a talented player like Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Shane Bieber, or Ha-Seong Kim, it's even easier to buy in.
Webb is a top-five pitcher in MLB. Snell just won a Cy Young. Harrison is the best left-handed pitching prospect in the league. Cobb was an All-Star last season. And then there's a list of several other potential starters ranging from previously productive veterans to promising prospects. If the Giants can get into the playoffs with that rotation, they should be able to wreak some havoc.
It still feels hollow, though.
The Giants and their fans will be feeling the aftershocks of Yamamoto and Ohtani's decisions for years. It's difficult to generate buzz around the Giants when their biggest rival has already had an unprecedented offseason.
Yet, if the history of the Giants and Dodgers rivalry tells us anything, it's that San Francisco should not be intimidated by big moves.
I'll never forget my father's reaction when the Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett in the largest waiver trade in league history back in August of 2012. This was after the Dodgers had already acquired recent All-Stars Hanley Ramirez, Brandon League, and Shane Victorino prior to the trade deadline less than a month earlier.
My dad, a lifelong diehard Giants fan, came downstairs, heard the news, and was immediately chiding the Giants. "But we got Marco Scutaro," he said sarcastically, mocking the Giants comparatively minimal acquisition. Of course, San Francisco had also added Hunter Pence prior to the trade deadline, but my dad was uninterested in that at the moment.
We all know how that worked out.
There's a way those type of stories often get spun as an argument not to make big moves. Like somehow the Dodgers were dumb for investing in proven talent and making big moves. But that's not the point. The Dodgers were a better team than they would have been for years because of the trades they made that summer. Getting better, particularly in a sport as random as baseball, is just never going to guarantee a championship. Even if the Dodgers sure seem to be getting pretty close now.
The impressive moves of an opponent cannot scare you into inaction. There is a tiring nature to how often athletes recite "We are focused on controlling what we can control," but it's not a hollow maxim. Players and team employees cannot get caught up in the emotional roller coaster that fans invest in without losing some of their own agency. As fans and media members, we often build sports narratives around destiny, but that's a useless tool for the folks living the reality every day.
It's a simple sales pitch. Snell, Chapman, and Lee would be San Francisco's most impressive crop of free agents in franchise history, with the exception of when they landed Barry Bonds. Each of the trio immediately infuses much-needed upside to a roster that has plenty of solid players but lacks impact talent.
Barring a salary dump of someone like Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, or Anthony DeSclafani the Giants would likely end up slightly over the luxury tax, even if they traded a displaced J.D. Davis for minor leaguers. However, they would only be subjected to a 20% penalty on the overage and would not face any other consequences.
Adding the reigning NL Cy Young winner, a Bay Area star who has won four Gold Gloves, and the biggest international addition in franchise history is nothing to scoff at. Even if it will remain in the Dodgers' shadow nationally. Even if it carries plenty of risk.
After all, I was hesitant enough about Snell's profile and career of inconsistency to slide him behind Cody Bellinger and even Jordan Montgomery in GBI's free-agent rankings, although it was a very difficult group to parse. I originally slotted Chapman in the teens behind Jorge Soler and Teoscar Hernández because of his dip in offensive production and whiff-rate spike last season.
But vibes matter too.
Snell's Cy Young track record will carry more weight with the fanbase than Montgomery's consistency and lack of qualifying offer. Reuniting Chapman with Bob Melvin and a Bay Area fanbase that he connected with during his tenure with the Oakland Athletics has some value as well.
Teams should not simply make moves for public relations, but after trying to parse the best combination of players from Snell, Bellinger, Montgomery, Chapman, Marcus Stroman, Shōta Imanaga, Jorge Soler, and others countless times this offseason, I have been able to make just one conclusion.
There were two free agents I had no concerns about paying. They both signed with the Dodgers.
Free agency is always a gamble, but it's not always the same game. What's left in free agency is a game of craps. And the Giants have put themselves in a position where they cannot afford to sit out. So, they need to throw the dice twice and hope for a 7 and 11. If that's what they're banking on, they might as well ensure they can do the most to reinvigorate the fanbase in the process.
It's worth remembering that plenty of teams have had less successful forays into free agency prior to massive splashes. The offseason before the Phillies landed Bryce Harper, they gave big contracts to Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. The offseason before the Padres landed franchise-changing superstar Manny Machado, they gave Eric Hosmer an ill-fated $120 million deal.
With Webb already locked up to a long-term extension, the Giants do not have any players currently on the roster nearing massive extensions to worry about. Doval is the closest, and he will not be a free agent until the 2028-29 offseason. In other words, these are the years to spend more recklessly.
Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman fields a ground ball against the Yankees. (2023)
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
That's the thing, even in the highly unlikely worst scenario, where Snell, Chapman, and Lee all flop in 2024, the Giants would still have far from exhausted their financial ammunition. Even if Snell and Chapman add a combined $55 million average annual value to the Giants' payroll, they would remain on track to be more than $60 million under the luxury tax threshold entering next offseason and $100 million below the threshold for non-financial consequences, like draft pick penalties.
Whether Snell, Chapman, and Lee thrive or stumble, the Giants will once again have the financial might to be players in the 2024-25 free agent market. Currently the class is slated to include big names like Juan Soto, Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Pete Alonso, Bieber, Jose Altuve, Adames, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, and Max Fried. So why not gamble on a pair of players who have been stars and will bring some excitement to a fanbase that needs it?
It's worth noting that Chapman is one of the few power-hitters in MLB who Statcast projects to have hit significantly more home runs at Oracle Park than he actually did in each of the past three seasons (86 versus 71). The opposite is true of Bellinger, who Statcast has projected throughout his career to hit far fewer home runs at Oracle than elsewhere.
Still, if Chapman only matches his less impressive 2021-23 production, he has averaged just shy of 4 fWAR per year over those campaigns anyway. Snell has averaged a 3.02 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 143 innings pitched per season over the past six years. Just living up to those averages would make him a 3+ WAR contributor. If Lee approaches his 2024 ZiPS (.288/.346/.416) and PECOTA (.279/.353/.414) projections alongside average defense in center field, he will be a 2-3 WAR player and the Giants most productive rookie outfielder since Chili Davis back in 1982.
And in the scenario where Chapman, Snell, and Lee all hit the ground running, the Giants should be able to cruise into the postseason. They would have plenty of payroll flexibility left, and a far more compelling roster to sell other players on joining. Maybe then, they will finally be able to land the biggest name they go after.
The Dodgers have become the Death Star, only further burying the Giants in their shadow. With that said, even after missing out on their top targets, the Giants have an opportunity to have one of the most productive offseasons in franchise history. They may not be Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jung-Hoo Lee have the potential to help turn the SF Giants franchise around.
