Rumors: SF Giants target Shohei Ohtani may receive first $600 million contract

As rumors fly, estimates for Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking contract reach as high as $600 million. Will the SF Giants be the ones to give it to him?

As MLB's Winter Meetings wrap up, the hype around Shohei Ohtani (#1-ranked free agent) is reaching a fever pitch. According to speculation by MLB insiders such as Jon Heyman and Howard Cole, the Giants top free-agent target could easily be the first $600 million player in the sport. Just how unprecedented would a contract of this magnitude be?

Here’s my guess on the eventual Shoehei Ohtani free-agent contract: 12 years at $47 million per, for a grand total of $564 million. I am not predicting a #Dodgers signing, but I can tell you right now that they can make it work as well or better than any club in baseball… pic.twitter.com/RWN3244VSu

— Howard Cole (@Howard_Cole) December 3, 2023

https://t.co/vzyR0cNzL8. Bidding already is believed well past $500M, so are we looking at a $600M man?

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 3, 2023

A contract of this magnitude would shatter the ceiling set by the next-highest contract in baseball, Mike Trout's 12-year, $427 million dollar contract extension. Ohtani's former teammate inked his extension in 2019, and for four years has worn the crown of the highest-paid player in baseball, befitting of his status as one of the best in the game. Now, it's Ohtani's turn.

Just how much higher will Ohtani go, though? The $600 million mark would beat out Trout's deal by over $170 million  - nearly two Logan Webb contract extensions put together. 

Of course, Trout earned his payday via a contract extension. What about prior free agents, which provide the precedent for the ongoing Ohtani negotiations? The previous free agent record was set by someone Giants fans should be intimately familiar with. That's right, last year's nine-year, $360 million pact between Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees is the current record-holder. Now, just 12 months later, teams have a chance to land an even bigger star, for just a few extra hundreds of millions more.

If Ohtani's contract does indeed land within the general vicinity of $600 million, it would mark the largest jump between free agent contracts since Alex Rodriguez broke baseball with a 10-year, $252 million agreement back in 2000. Just prior, Mike Hampton had set the pace with an 8-year, $121 million deal, which A-Rod more than doubled (2.08x). At that point, Rodriguez had also doubled the then-richest contract in the entirety of North American sports, Kevin Garnett's 6-year, $126 million pact with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In that vein, dizzying heights of Ohtani's contract negotiations make a little more sense. While the jump in overall money is even bigger ($170M to $121M), it probably won't completely leapfrog the rest of baseball in the way that Alex Rodriguez did way back when. And with Patrick Mahomes, face of the NFL, agreed to a 10-year, $450 million contract back in 2020, Ohtani won't be doubling up the rest of the Big Four, either (unless things get REALLY crazy). Given everything Ohtani has to offer - his peerless stats, his two-way versatility, and marketing revenue valued between $20-35 million a year - his current projections are more singularly impressive than completely brain-breaking.

With all that said, there's still so much we don't know about how the Shohei Ohtani saga will turn out. Secrecy has been at the forefront of negotiations with Ohtani and his agent, Nez Balelo, and neither have leaked much about the preferred contract length, amount, or destination. At this point, a record-breaking half-billion-dollar contract would be seen as an absolute steal. Maybe, amidst all the hubbub, that was the real goal all along.