SF Giants 2023 offseason preview: Free agents, arbitration, options, more

With the World Series over, the MLB offseason is officially underway. So what decisions await the SF Giants regarding their current roster?

The 2023 SF Giants season showed a lot of promise, especially with younger players, such as rookie catcher Patrick Bailey and infielder Casey Schmitt. There was a lot of hope with the season after an April where they went 11-16, heading into the All-Star Break with a 49-41 record. They still had a good shot at the postseason and the team seemed to be going on an upward trajectory.

By the time the team reached September, the offense plummeted and the rookies cooled off. The team struggled to hold on to a .500 record. Manager Gabe Kapler was fired before the final series of the season started at Oracle Park. It was a collapse that called for a lot of answers, but very few were given. As the Giants go into the offseason, a lot of uncertainty remains about what’s next for the team.

SF Giants arbitration-eligible players: Mike Yastrzemski, J.D. Davis, Austin Slater, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr.

Despite the Giants underwhelming season, there really aren't any downsides to bringing back each of their arbitration-eligible players. 

Thairo Estrada, who had one of the best years of his career in 2023, going .271/.315/.416 with 14 home runs and a career-high 23 stolen bases, was the Giants' Willie Mac Award winner. At just 27 years old, he's a quiet leader in the clubhouse and a no-brainer for the Giants to bring back as a cornerstone for their infield. His league-wide second highest outs above average at 19 is the highest by a Giant in the statcast era.

LaMonte Wade Jr. also had one of the best years of his career, making waves across the league for having such a strong OPS for much of the beginning of the season due to his incredible plate discipline. He batted .256/.373/.417 with 17 home runs, and remains the most reliable choice for first baseman for the team.

J.D. Davis, who at the midpoint of the season made a strong case for an All-Star bid, closed on a bit more mellow note. The Elk Grove native batted .248/.325/.413 with 18 home runs, and spent a majority of the season at third base. With the Giants' 2023 offensive heartbeat Wilmer Flores increasingly moving towards a designated hitter-first role and spending less time at third base, the team could use Davis' experience.

Tyler Rogers spent 2023 as one of the more reliable members of the Giants' bullpen, owing in large part to the fact that he wasn't over-utilized like many other members were. He ended the season going 4-5, pitching 74.0 innings with 60 strikeouts, 66 hits, and 19 walks. The Giants will need all the pitching help they can get, both in starting and relief, and Rogers and his quirky delivery are a great addition.

Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski, both players that feel like foundational pieces of the Giants to many fans, both struggled in the beginning of 2023. Slater and Yastrzemski went .270/.348/.400 and .233/.330/.445 respectively on the season. Nothing to write home about offensively, but because of the athleticism required in the outfield at Oracle Park, their strong defense makes them both assets to the team.

SF Giants impending free agents: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood, Jake Junis, Roberto Pérez, John Brebbia, Scott Alexander, Bryce Johnson

The Giants are set to see a handful of their players elect free agency five days after the conclusion of the World Series. 

After back-boning two World Series championship rings, earning four Gold Glove Awards at shortstop, and living out the dream of playing for his childhood team, Brandon Crawford is set to become a free agent for the first time in 13 seasons with the Giants. 

Crawford, who will turn 37 in January, may have experienced a triumphant farewell to the home crowd at Oracle Park during the final game of the regular season on Oct. 1, but he still isn’t ready to share his plans in baseball. If he decides to continue playing, it’ll likely be with a different organization looking for a veteran presence to stabilize their infield. Crawford’s 2023 production ensured his days as an everyday player are over –– during an injury-plagued campaign where he played in just 93 games, he notched a .587 OPS at the plate. However, if he’s willing to take a reduced role with flexibility at different positions, his above-average defense could still bring some value to a club. It all depends on how he’s feeling physically.  

In the meantime, the Giants could try to upgrade shortstop in-house with Marco Luciano seen as the leading candidate to win the job. 

Joc Pederson’s two-year stint with San Francisco is also possibly coming to a close as the 31-year-old is expected to be one of the more attractive left-handed hitters –– surely not named Ohtani –– on the open market. A solid 2022 campaign led the Giants to lend him the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer, which he accepted. 

With an average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and BB% hovering in the 90th percentile in 2023, Pederson still carries significant value with the bat exclusively against right-handed pitching. But his defense shouldn’t be existent –– he’s a designated hitter only at this point. While he may provide stability from an offensive perspective, it’s hard to imagine the Giants challenging other teams –– Pederson may land a short multi-year deal somewhere –– in desperately trying to acquire one-dimensional production.

Jakob Junis and Alex Wood are also pending free agents –– the pair pitched in similar roles throughout the 2023 season as bulk-inning options in the bullpen. Junis, 31, was rocky in the first half but thrived in a good enough second half to possibly put himself back on the radar. The Giants loved his versatility and with a projected group of young arms, it wouldn’t be a bad thing to add him back into the mix. 

Wood, 32, was openly frustrated about his lack of opportunity in the starting rotation in 2023, but the bark didn’t match the effectiveness. The left-hander’s numbers kept regressing and soon enough, he was unable to limit free passes or record consistent swings and misses to make him a viable reliever. Maybe he’ll finally crack a starting spot elsewhere, but it’s certainly a far-fetched bet.

Noted clubhouse clown and highly-touted opener John Brebbia and lefty reliever Scott Alexander will both become free agents this offseason. Both struggled at times with injuries –– Brebbia missed time with a lat strain and Alexander endured a hamstring issue that cost him some games. Switch-hitting outfielder Bryce Johnson will also hit the market, along with catcher Roberto Perez, who missed the entire season after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in April. 

SF Giants option decisions: Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Alex Cobb

The Giants will have to wait on three player option decisions and make one club option decision of their own. The $10 million club option the team holds for starting pitcher Alex Cobb seems like a no-brainer to exercise, even if he may miss the start of the season after undergoing hip surgery. Cobb has been an above-average starter throughout the past two seasons in San Francisco and has been too productive to risk losing for less than $10 million (his option has a $2 million buyout).

Outfielder Michael Conforto seems like a surefire bet to opt out this offseason. While Conforto was a slightly below-average contributor over the course of the season, his track record of success and the relatively weak class of free-agent hitters makes it seem likely that he will opt out.

Sean Manaea probably has the most difficult opt-out decision of the group. Manaea was kicked out of the Giants rotation early in the season, was very effective out of the bullpen, and then was solid upon returning to a starting role in September. However, the stacked nature of this year's free-agent crop makes it hard to know whether he could beat the $12.5 million guarantee he would be foregoing. Still, Manaea may opt out simply to find a situation where he is more confident he will receive an opportunity to start.

Ross Stripling acknowledged late this season that he had not pitched well enough to opt out of his contract this offseason. There's no doubt that the veteran righty would not be able to top the one-year, $12.5 million remaining on his contract, so any opt-out would be purely out of a desire to find a different situation.