Metric projects three SF Giants pitchers to rank among top-25 SP in MLB

The SF Giants are slated to rely heavily on young starting pitchers next season, and one projection is quite high on their current rotation.

At the moment, the starting rotation for the SF Giants appears to lack proven quality behind ace right-hander Logan Webb. There’s still time in the offseason for the organization to sign a big free agent or finalize a significant trade, but one statistical projection may suggest why the Giants appear ready to rely so heavily on their young arms. According to one projection system, San Francisco's pitching prospects Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison project to be among the top-25 starters in 2024.

With '23 NPB FaBIO Ratings available, we can work Yoshinobu Yamamoto better into the '24 MLB SP FaBIO projections. These are the Top 30 SP among those expected to MLB SP at least some in '24. If this makes for a reasonable guess on the Yamamoto MLB SP line, he'll rate around #6. pic.twitter.com/o2uZXIeEz2

— Matt Collier (@reillocity) January 14, 2024

The pair, who both made their big league debuts last season, carries an expectation to further their development, but at least one projection for 2024 has ranked them very favorably among baseball’s best starters. According to RotoBaller writer Matt Collier’s Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes (FaBIO), Winn and Harrison –– along with Webb –– crack the top-30 starting pitchers list, checking in at 21 and 22 respectively.

FaBIO’s overall rating quantifies how well the pitcher avoided expected runs per batter faced relative to the rest of the league based on their distribution of 12 event types over all batters faced.

The 12 event types are the following:

• BB (Walk) or HBP (Hit By Pitch)
• K (Strikeout)
• IFFB (Infield Fly Ball)
• OFFB (Outfield Fly Ball), Pull Third
• OFFB, Center Third
• OFFB, Opposite Third
• LD (Line Drive), Pull Third
• LD, Center Third
• LD, Opposite Third
• GB (Ground Ball), Pull Third
• GB, Center Third
• GB, Opposite Third

Webb projects to be the 11th-best starter in 2024, per FaBIO, with an overall score of 93, control ranking of 93 and batted ball profile of 96 certainly are expected based on his second place finish in the National League Cy Young voting last fall, but the sight of Winn and Harrison ranking near the top of the list is surprising. Interestingly, they appear on the list for polar opposite reasons.

Harrison’s elite strikeout stuff makes up for his less than attractive control issues and ground ball percentage, while Winn’s ability to produce ground balls at respectable batted ball rate place him high on the list. They rank above aces like Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola, Chicago’s Justin Steele and Houston’s Framber Valdez in that FaBIO.

Winn, 25, debuted with the Giants on June 13 in St. Louis and finished with 42.1 big league innings under his belt after being shuttled back and forth a few times from Triple-A and MLB. A 4.68 ERA with the Giants overshadows his breakthrough with the split-finger, a pitch that has elevated to arguably one of the best in the entire organization.

Harrison, 22, was called up to start on August 12th in Philadelphia and threw well in his first two outings, but experienced some growing pains in other starts. He’s expected to be a key piece –– possibly even a top-end starter –– for the SF Giants in 2024, especially earlier in the season as they await the return of newly acquired lefty Robbie Ray and veteran righty Alex Cobb –– both coming off injuries.