SF Giants: Casey Schmitt reflects on up-and-down rookie campaign

It was a rough rookie season for SF Giants infielder Casey Schmitt, but he sees plenty of opportunities for development in 2024.

Rookie infielder Casey Schmitt started off his rookie year strong for the SF Giants, then slumped after his hot start. But he believes that he was not overmatched at the big league level, just unfortunate.

"It kind of felt like I was just unlucky."

Casey Schmitt on how he evaluates his rookie 2023 season 🔽 pic.twitter.com/AwEVW5CpFm

— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) January 30, 2024

"Those first two months were unbelievable, and then I came back to Earth a little bit," Schmitt told NBC Sports Bay Area. "It felt like it was just unlucky. It felt like I was going out there, and every time I was hitting the ball, it was finding someone's glove, no matter how hard I hit, no matter how soft I hit it."

He may have a point, though it was really more like an unbelievable three weeks. From his callup May 11 to the end of the month, Schmitt slashed .325/.329/.470. You can see from the nearly-identical batting average and on-base percentage that Schmitt didn't walk much, drawing just one walk in his first 35 games in the big leagues.

After that, his batting lines got ugly. In June, he slashed .140/.234/.193. In July, he slumped to 105/.200/.140, getting six hits in 57 at-bats. Schmitt started losing playing time by August, finishing the month with a .133/.182/.300 line, with four hits in 30 at-bats, though two were doubles and one was a home run.

But there's a statistic that backs up Schmitt's perception of his season. According to Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which uses Statcast data exit velocity and launch angle, to determine the expected result of all batted balls. That, combined with the player's real-world stats for walks, strikeouts, and hit-by-pitches, gives his xwOBA.

For the season, Schmitt's OBP was .255. His weighted on-base average was .254. But his xwOBA was .282, which is a significantly better number.

Schmitt struck out in 23.5% of his plate appearances, slightly above the MLB average of 22%. His walk rate of 4.7% was low, just slightly better than noted free-swinger Javier Baez. But xwOBA suggests that Schmitt deserved roughly 10% more hits than he got on batted balls.

Nearly 29% of Schmitt's batted balls were classified as "hard-hit," while 55.7% where hit with "medium speed." He only hit the ball with soft contact 15.5% of the time. Schmitt also hit line drives 22% of the time he put the ball in play.

Obviously, Schmitt could use some improvement in his plate discipline. He rarely walks. He swung at 41.4% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone.

However, Schmitt is very good at making contact. He makes contact with nearly 60% of those pitches outside the zone. And he was a little unlucky on how few his hard-hit fly balls turned into home runs, though some of that might be playing at Oracle Park.

Schmitt seems to have the right mindset. He compared his frustrations to his injury-plagued 2021 season, where he felt like results were also out of his hands. But he's resolved to "control what I can control" going forward, which is all you can expect. Except perhaps reading up on research on BABIP.