SF Giants weekly prospects recap: Carson Whisenhunt's velocity jump

Carson Whisenhunt and Patrick Bailey's promotions, Vaun Brown's return, and more ABS talk in this week's Giants prospects recap.

Welcome to the weekly SF Giants prospect recap, where we take a look at the organization's prospects and minor leaguers who stood out this past week.

Before reading, be sure to check out our top 42 prospects ranking and the prospects who just missed the list to get acclimated to players throughout the system.

SF Giants Triple-A affiliate: Sacramento River Cats

Hitters

It's time to talk about the Patrick Bailey (Giants #21 prospect) promotion. After he hit his second home run of the season last Tuesday against Bowie, the Giants' front office decided that Bailey is ready to take the next step of his development and promoted him to Triple-A and face a talented Oklahoma City Dodger squad. Even though Bailey has not had a single hit in nine at-bats so far for Sacramento, he's been doing well in terms of working the count with two walks and just one strikeout. Also, he's already hit three balls with an exit velocity above 95 mph so he's been putting good contact with the ball. It is only a matter of time before Bailey gets his first hit at Triple-A and he's earned the promotion after such a strong start this season for Richmond.

Heliot Ramos (Giants #17 prospect) is now back with Sacramento after a stint at the big league club where our own Marc Delucchi found some promising results in his underlying numbers, has played well against Oklahoma City this week with two home runs (both with an exit velocity above 105 mph), and an astonishing ten balls with an exit velocity above 95 mph, the hardest of which came at a blistering 112.3 mph groundout. Heliot has been flexing his muscles this season, but the more important aspect is that he's lifting the ball while hitting it at a similar thump. So far, there has been a slight improvement but not eye-popping.

Other hitters of note: Casey Schmitt (Giants #3 prospect) struggled against the talented OKC pitching staff this week with just four hits in 21 at-bats. On a positive note, he's walked twice but also struck out only twice with two stolen bases to boot. Will Wilson (Just missed the list) has struggled big time over his last eight games with just one hit in his last 25 plate appearances, and four hits over his last 40 plate appearances going back to the start of the Round Rock series.

Pitchers

Kyle Harrison (Giants #1 prospect) is back to his prolific ways as he struck out 15 Oklahoma City batters in 6.2 innings of two-run ball where he only allowed just two hits, across two starts this week. He looked sharp last Tuesday and even though he had a stretch where he threw 10 straight balls last Sunday, he finished strong with his last six outs coming the way of the strikeout. The fastball metrics once again look better than ever while his slider had its moments. 

Going back to the topic of the automatic ball-strike system that I began the conversation about last week, I have done more work in terms of that area. Last week, I talked about the high number of pitches that Harrison threw that were called balls by the ABS. There have been conversations on the internet about whether the ABS works properly or not. Using Harrison again as an example this week works because he pitched last Tuesday which is a full ABS game and Sunday which is a "challenge calls using the ABS" game. 

After looking into it, it's all a matter of perspective. Using Baseball Savant's Illustrator feature on Harrison last Tuesday, we can see that there were nine pitches that are inside the Illustrator strike zone that were called balls. However, if we use the 3D Pitch feature and hover over those nine pitches, it is clear that all nine are balls because of the different sizes of the strike zone for each hitter that Harrison faced. The 3D Pitch feature is closer to what MiLB Gameday uses though it has a negative rap for being inconsistent, especially at lower levels. In Harrison's Sunday start, there are only two pitches inside the Illustrator strike zone that are called balls as the game certainly looked more organic compared to Tuesday. It was more like Harrison was battling against himself and not against a computer but was still unhittable.

I'm not saying that ABS is perfect because the zone is very small that it hurts strikeout/chase pitchers like Harrison, Cole Waites (Giants #26 prospect), and others more than the finesse pitchers. It is far from perfect. On the other hand, what kind of ABS presentation is the best way to move forward because the current system looks unsustainable where the Illustrator feature might be better at the big league level? At the end of the day, what do we ultimately believe in? Maybe the real ABS is the friends that we made along the way. 

Other pitchers of note: Ryan Walker posted two spotless innings against the Dodgers with three strikeouts. Walker's ERA this month is at an impressive 1.15 given the offensive boom this year. Keaton Winn (Giants #18 prospect) pitched well in his only start this week, going four innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts and just two walks allowed. The aforementioned Waites has regained his mojo over his last five outings with just the two-run blemish last Thursday but he's struck out six and walked just two batters across 4.2 innings.

SF Giants Double-A affiliate: Richmond Flying Squirrels

Hitters

Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants #20 prospect) continues to show how good he has become with another strong start to the season with eight hits in 19 at-bats against Bowie including four doubles, a triple, and a home run. Fitzgerald is currently inside the top five in the Eastern League in terms of batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and doubles while playing strong defense at shortstop. The strikeouts will always be there for him (28% rate) but he's done well on both sides of the ball this April hoping that he can carry it over next month.

Other hitters of note: There is not much to talk about in great detail on the offensive side of the ball but there are a lot of hitters to talk about in bits. Ismael Munguia (Just missed the list) hit his second home run of the season and finished the Bowie series on a high note with five hits in his 11 at-bats across his last three games. Hayden Cantrelle posted a 1.271 OPS this week fueled by his four hits and four walks in his 14 plate appearances. Luis Matos (Giants #4 prospect) cooled off this week against Bowie with just two hits in 18 at-bats. He's still working the count though with three more walks which brings his season total to 13 in 82 plate appearances. Brett Auerbach (Just missed the list) has gone ice cold over his past seven games with just one hit in 25 at-bats with 11 strikeouts. His OPS for the month of April is .441. 

Pitchers

Mason Black (Giants #8 prospect) recorded a season-high in strikeouts in an outing with eight across four innings of one-run ball last Thursday. Black has been solid if not spectacular this season with a 4.40 ERA with 22 strikeouts and just three walks in 14.1 innings pitched. He's been pounding the zone with his pitches before his start last Thursday with a 68% strike rate but throwing fewer strikes might be what Black needs as he set up his sweeping slider well with his lively fastball that sits in the 94-96 mph range. 

Mason Black punched out 8 over four innings of work in Thursday’s victory over Bowie.

Mason, after 14.1 innings, has a 13.8 K/9 along with a 7.3 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP this season. pic.twitter.com/731tePzcI4

— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) April 29, 2023

Randy Rodriguez (Giants #25 prospect) has been on a roll over the past two series with a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings alongside 10 strikeouts and just one walk allowed. The right-hander did struggle to consistently throw strikes in his only outing against Bowie this week with only 27 out of the 46 pitches for strikes but his stuff is certainly back to where it was in 2021. Rodriguez holds a 40-man roster spot so he really has to perform at a high level in order for the front office to warrant him that spot. 

Ryan Murphy (Giants #23 prospect) had his strongest outing since his 2023 debut by throwing four innings of two-run ball (only one was earned) with four strikeouts and just one walk. Murphy was a bit inconsistent this April with a 5.09 ERA but he can definitely use this outing as a starting point for better consistency.

Other pitchers of note: Nick Swiney (Giants #40 prospect) has been impressive so far out of the Richmond bullpen having only allowed just one run in 12.1 innings with 14 strikeouts compared to just four walks. He struck out three in 2.1 innings in his only appearance against Bowie. Nick Zwack (Giants #30 prospect) has his second-best outing this season with three innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts and just one walk. He has not reached the same heights as his 2023 debut but he's been solid in each start.

SF Giants High-A affiliate: Eugene Emeralds

Hitters

I am impressed with what Victor Bericoto (Giants #32 prospect) has shown throughout the past two weeks with seven hits in 22 at-bats across six games this week and ended the Vancouver series with a modest four-game hitting streak. Bericoto kept on having a solid plan at the box and a patient approach though he's had quite a preference towards hitting against lefty pitching with a 1.050 OPS against southpaws compared to a 0.652 OPS when hitting against right-handed pitching. When I watched his at-bats, it's pretty clear that he sees lefties well even if that pitcher has funk in his mechanics. Physically, he looks good and is a capable fielder in the outfield.

Adrian Sugastey (Giants #34 prospect) carried his hot streak in the home opener series across the border with seven hits in 17 at-bats across four games against Vancouver. In his last eight games, the Panamanian catcher has a .387 batting average with a double and a home run across 31 at-bats. Like Bericoto, Sugastey has extreme platoon splits (1.219 OPS versus lefties, .469 OPS versus righties). Unlike Bericoto though, Sugastey has a contact-oriented approach with just two walks in 60 plate appearances. 

Other hitters of note: Luis Toribio (Just missed the list) hit two homers this week in back-to-back games last Wednesday and Thursday but the strikeouts are now piling up for the third baseman with 10 strikeouts in 26 plate appearances this week. Toribio has a 35% strikeout rate this season. Grant McCray (Giants #5 prospect) also hit a home run this week, his first of the season, but the strikeouts are also piling up with 11 more against the Canadiens. He's currently on a seven-game strikeout streak and also has a 35% strikeout rate as April comes to a close.

Pitchers

I have talked about the idea that Carson Whisenhunt (Giants #9 prospect) shall rapidly ascend if he can prove that he can dominate with his non-changeup pitches in my first weekly recap of the year, and based on his last start at the Low-A level last Tuesday, it came quickly as he twirled four scoreless innings of one-hit ball against Fresno where the fastball took the spotlight and the changeup took the back seat. That outing earned him a promotion to High-A and his debut against the Canadiens last Sunday could not have gone any better as he once again twirled four innings of one-hit ball with six strikeouts as the fastball took the driver's seat once again. This week, Whisenhunt has been dominant throwing eight scoreless innings where he only allowed two hits, struck out 13 batters, and did not walk any batter. 

The biggest takeaway this week has been the fastball, specifically the velocity. Folks who saw him pitch in Spring Training at Papago and even last season in San Jose and in the Arizona Fall League have clocked Whisenhunt's fastball around the 91-94 mph range. When the regular season started, however, things changed as there have been multiple reports of Whisenhunt's fastball clocking in the 93-97 mph range and the changeup in the 81-84 mph range. Now, stadium radar guns in the Minor Leagues can boost velocity readings around 1-2 mph but the increased velocity now came from multiple ballparks which should indicate that the velocity jump is legit. 

It would be intriguing to see if Whisenhunt can sustain this kind of velo throughout the season but it leaves me wondering if the pitch count limitations do allow Whisenhunt to rear back more often or if there is a rare case of Spring Training sandbagging. Nonetheless, this is an exciting development and it should propel him towards the top five prospect conversations if it holds up. 

2022 second-rounder Carson Whisenhunt was dominant in his High-A debut with four scoreless innings of one-hit ball with no walks and six strikeouts.

The fastball was at 94-97 mph while his patented changeup is at 82-84 mph. Arrow is definitely pointing up. pic.twitter.com/tqtFvdjtc5

— Giant Prospective (@giantprospectiv) May 1, 2023

Eric Silva (Giants #11 prospect) had his shortest outing of the season in his start last Thursday, only throwing three innings of two-run work with three hits, two walks allowed, and only two strikeouts. Even though Silva has a 1.80 ERA, he's struggled so far this season with just 11 strikeouts and six walks across 15 innings of work. When I watched his start last Thursday, I saw a pitcher who can touch 95 mph with his fastball but struggled to effectively pitch with his heater up in the zone in order not only to get whiffs but also to set up his secondary pitches. If he can correct that issue as the weather warms up, he shall climb back up in the conversation of best pitching prospects in the organization. 

Carson Ragsdale (Just missed the list) continues to impress with another strong four-inning outing where he only allowed one run (which came via the home run) on two hits, no walks, a hit batter, and seven strikeouts last Wednesday. The fastball topped out at 95 mph with good life up in the zone that overpowered Canadiens hitters while also throwing his plus curveball with big shape and a high-80s cutter. He's rising back up the depth chart as a pitcher with at least above-average stuff.

Other pitchers of note: Nick Sinacola had a strong week against the Canadiens with eight innings of one-run ball across two outings where he struck out nine batters, walked a couple, and hit a batter. The fastball was in the 91-94 mph range with good life up in the zone paired with a solid slider and splitter. Joe Kemlage also looked strong this week with six strikeouts in three innings of one-run (unearned) ball. The low-slot lefty has a fastball and a slider that he relies upon.

SF Giants Low-A affiliate: San Jose Giants

Hitters

The biggest story in the San Jose hitting side this week is the rehab assignment of Vaun Brown (Giants #6 prospect) as he gets ready to take his place in the Richmond outfield as soon as next week. He's done well so far with five hits across 10 at-bats with a couple of strikeouts and two stolen bases. He missed much of April due to a knee injury but he's looked ready to go and take his place at the top of the Richmond lineup.

Alexander Suarez (Giants #41 prospect) has done well in his three games this week with six hits including a triple in 12 at-bats. Suarez is currently in the middle of a five-game hitting streak dating back to their series against Inland Empire. Suarez has all the tools, he just needs to continue to refine his game to break out.

Thomas Gavello continues to impress me this season as he once again played well this week against Inland Empire with five hits including two doubles and a home run. Gavello's three home runs this season leads the team and he's also currently leading the team in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. he's continuing to show off his defensive versatility by playing third base, second base, and catcher with only one total error so far. He's becoming the Brett Auerbach of last year's draft class and it might not be long before he gets promoted to Eugene.

Other prospects of note: Edison Mora did well this week with six hits, four of which were doubles with two walks and a strikeout. Zach Morgan had a weird game last Friday going 0-2 with a strikeout but also drew four walks. Diego Velasquez (Just missed the list) did very well this week with nine hits including two doubles in 22 at-bats as his batting average crept over .300 at the end of April. P.J. Hilson (Giants #35 prospect) also returned this week alongside Vaun Brown but unlike Brown, Hilson will be a mainstay with the San Jose squad this year.

Pitchers

Jack Choate kept his dominant start to his 2023 season rolling with his best outing so far as he went four shutout innings with nine strikeouts, and only two walks and a hit allowed. The ninth-rounder from Assumption last year is a true revelation where it looked like his 2023 debut was an outing where the adrenaline went too much. In his last three outings, he was stone cold and dominant with 11 shutout innings and has struck out 20 out of the 40 batters he faced. The fastball might be only 90-93 but it comes at hitters in a hurry due to his long stride and low release height and he can effectively get both lefties and righties out with his slider and changeup that looked above-average at best with good depth. Choate is looking more and more like a top-30 prospect and a Day Two steal.

Jack Choate turned in his finest outing so far with four shutout innings and nine strikeouts.

In his last three outings, he's been magical with 10 shutout innings while striking out 20 out of the 40 batters he faced. It's not premium stuff but his deception really works. pic.twitter.com/PUbY4yKK6B

— Giant Prospective (@giantprospectiv) April 27, 2023

Liam Simon (Giants #38 prospect) struggled in his two outings this week with Fresno allowing four earned runs and five walks across seven innings. He did strike out nine batters, six of which came last Tuesday. He looked better last Tuesday in a piggyback role compared to his first start of the year last Sunday filling in for the hole left by Whisenhunt. He did not have that high level of glove-side control with his fastball that we have seen from him earlier this season but he can still touch 97 mph though his slider did not look as sharp last Sunday as it did last Tuesday when he relied on it to rack up the strikeouts. It looked like he is not comfortable with the mound at Fresno but he is still a watchable prospect even if things did not go his way this week. Nonetheless, I am interested to see where his starting gig goes moving forward.

Hayden Birdsong (Just missed the list) continues to be a steady presence in the San Jose rotation with three more innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and just one walk allowed. Even though he only allowed just one walk, he got to a three-ball count six times as he struggled to consistently pound the zone with his fastball. His high strikeout rate in college carried over at Low-A having struck out 22 of the 55 batters that he faced this season, equivalent to a 40% rate. 

Other pitchers of note: Manuel Mercedes (Just missed the list) had an interesting line last Saturday where he threw four hitless innings but he did not strike out a single batter and only allowed two walks. Gerelmi Maldonado also posted four hitless innings this week but has struck out two batters while walking three. Miguel Mora posted his best outing of the season with three innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts and just one walk. It will take a lot more strong outings to bring his 15.26 ERA down but this is a good start.