SF Giants free-agent fit profile: Toronto Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman

As the SF Giants look for significant upgrades this offseason, could Farhan Zaidi target former Bay Area star Matt Chapman.

As the SF Giants look to make some significant upgrades via free agency, one familiar name to Bay Area sports fans has begun to pop up: Matt Chapman (7th-best free agent). The one-time Oakland Athletic third baseman is expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays, but he will almost assuredly turn it down to head into free agency. In a year with a relatively thin offensive free-agent class, there has been understandable speculation that Chapman could ink a nine-figure deal with San Francisco.

Toronto Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman fields a ground ball against the Yankees. (2023) / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

It is no secret that the Giants have publicly struggled in free agency for at least the last two decades, whiffing big on stars who've gone on to become big names for other teams. It's hard to say if it's the wind in the park, the politics of the city, the state taxes, or some other je ne sais quoi that's keeping players from the orange and black. But ahead of the 2024 season, with President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recognizing a need for some kind of change and taking a big bet that a new manager is a good first step, the team is clearly hoping their luck is about to change.

After being teased with both Aaron "Arson" Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason, Giants fans are almost at their wits end. Despite Shohei Ohtani's prior indication of respect and admiration for the Giants' franchise, and his preference to stay on the west coast, many believe there is just no way the phenom could land in San Francisco for good. 

So could a slightly different target in Chapman, who came up to the league in the Bay Area, be someone for fans to pin their hopes on? Chapman, 30, will be entering his eighth MLB season, after being drafted by the A's and spending the first five years of his career with the team, and spending the last two in Toronto. At this stage in his career, it's fair to say he could be looking for a team that's the last and longest stop in his MLB journey.

Chapman boasts a career .240/.329/.461 with 155 home runs over seven seasons. He's never played less than 140 games in a season, with the exception of his rookie year and the COVID-shortened season, in which he underwent hip surgery. While his power hitting is nothing to scoff at, he is more well regarded as one of the best third basemen in the league, and has been for at least the last half decade. His career WAR is at 31.2, owing in large part to his defense, and he is a three time, nominated for four, Gold-Glover. In two of those years he won the league-wide Platinum Glove.

He, along with Cody Bellinger, are the only two position players amongst the widely agreed upon top-15 most targeted free agents. As a result, they're both likely to be sought after pretty heavily by teams with noted defensive holes: teams like the Giants. But there are obviously other factors at play with the Giants going after a third baseman.

With Wilmer Flores likely moved to a designated hitter role, and Casey Schmitt potentially several years from the everyday hot corner option for the Giants, it would seem to come down to the team's more affordable option in J.D. Davis (Chapman's CSU Fullerton teammate) or the Gold Glover Chapman.

Though Davis and Chapman had incredibly similar offensive numbers in 2023 (.248/.325/.413 and .240/.330/.424, respectively) and were just a single home run apart in production, Chapman's defense contributed to a notably higher fWAR and bWAR.

So does the stability in the infield that would come from Chapman's glove really justify what is likely to be a six to seven year contract in the hundreds of millions? And further, is spending that kind of money and putting a strain on Schmitt's developmental timeline, if the Giants don't trade him, worth it? 

It's hard to say. Though in my opinion, after watching the Giants churn through lineup after lineup of rookies and various small contract finds in the infield for the last few seasons without finding much strong defensive success, it has never been more clear that that strategy poses great liability. 

Not to mention, with shortstop Brandon Crawford, the stabilizing force in the infield, unlikely to return to the Giants in 2024, a lot of pressure gets put on second baseman Thairo Estrada. While Davis has MLB veteran credentials, his defense may not be strong enough to bolster prospect Marco Luciano on the left side of the field.

So, perhaps the Giants are willing to take a bet on Chapman being a rock, not only for the Giants' infield as a whole, but specifically to young talent like Luciano. Perhaps they will consider leveraging Davis or Schmitt as part of trades throughout the season, so the two may find success on teams looking for third base help. Now the other part of the equation: does Chapman have any interest in returning to the Bay Area?

That's anyone's guess at this point. Though as of early November, the cards are more heavily stacked in the Giants favor than they were prior to one Bob Melvin joining the clubhouse. Melvin, who managed the A's during Chapman's tenure, has indicated that he plans to bring along former A's third base coach (and former Giants All-Star third baseman) Matt Williams and former A's bench coach Ryan Christenson, both of whom Chapman has worked extensively with.

Maybe Matt Chapman has about as much interest in heading to the SF Giants as Ohtani; which is to say he's not made any indication one way or another. But if, for whatever collection of reasons, he shows up at Oracle Park's doorstep, and his price falls below expectations in the $100 million dollar range, it might be in the franchise's best interest to shell out and figure out the rest later.