Why the SF Giants should try to reunite with Astros manager Dusty Baker

Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker's future is unclear, and that could give the SF Giants an opportunity they can’t afford to waste, opines Marc Delucchi.

As the SF Giants search for a new manager, it's worth wondering what traits the perfect candidate would have. How about a manager who has already led the Giants through highs and lows? A manager who has shown the ability to form deep connections with players while increasing their utilization of stats-based approaches. What about someone who has consistently won as managerial strategies have evolved? If that sounds like the perfect candidate, then the perfect candidate is Dusty Baker.

SF Giants former manager Dusty Baker during a reunion at Oracle Park. (2019) / Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Baker has been managing the Houston Astros since the start of the 2020 season and is currently facing off against Bruce Bochy's Texas Rangers in the American League Championship Series. Yet, despite reaching the playoffs in all four seasons as manager and winning the World Series last year, Baker's future in Houston remains uncertain.

Astros' owner Jim Crane has taken a confusing hands-on approach to the team in recent years. Former Astros general manager James Click left the organization last offseason because he was offered just a one-year contract after winning the World Series. Baker accepted a similar one-year deal, but that short-term commitment only fueled speculation that Baker will be let go at the end of the season.

It's hard not to wonder if Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi regrets not trying to convince Bochy to stay in San Francisco a bit more in 2019. Instead, Bochy left and was replaced by Gabe Kapler, whom Zaidi had worked closely with in Los Angeles. Three years later, Zaidi fired Kapler and Bochy is back in the playoffs. Yet while Bochy is entrenched in Texas, Baker's impressive resume could be available.

Baker may not have won a World Series as the Giants' manager, but he won the National League pennant and came one win away from a title. He has had success managing rosters led by older, established talent and rosters led by emerging young players. He has also almost exclusively managed mid-sized to big-market teams, showing the ability to manage the pressure and expectations that come with those situations.

In fact, while Baker has managed five different franchises over his career, he has never had more .500 or worse seasons than 88+ win campaigns at any of his stops. Perhaps most impressive of all, Baker has never managed a team that missed the playoffs since MLB expanded the postseason to include a second Wild-Card team in each league.

Baker's tenure with the Giants had an uglier ending than it deserved. While the decision to remove Russ Ortiz from Game 6 of the 2002 World Series proved costly, the fact that the Giants refused to renew Baker's contract after a pennant-winning season remains unparalleled in modern MLB. 

The split was primarily driven by former Giants managing partner Peter Magowan, who passed away in 2019. Baker continued living in Northern California after leaving the Giants. He actually returned to the organization as a special advisor to Larry Baer and Brian Sabean before he was hired as Houston's manager. Perhaps Baker would like to finish his managerial career back where it all began.

Whether Zaidi likes it or not, it has been impossible to divorce him from managerial decisions. He did that to himself when he hired Kapler, someone with such close ties to him. Hiring someone with Baker's reputation and ties to the franchise would quell some of those concerns and also be a dramatic shift in Zaidi's approach.

Baker, after all, has no direct ties to Zaidi. He became the Giants manager back before Brian Sabean was the team's top baseball operations decision maker. On the heels of San Francisco nearly losing the Giants to Florida, Baker was at the helm of a 103-win team. He led the Giants to two division titles, three playoff appearances, and a National League pennant in an era where all of those accolades were far harder to come by.

The Giants could use an infusion of nostalgia coming off a pair of disappointing seasons. A reunion with Baker would allow Zaidi to acknowledge some of his missteps while adding arguably the most proven manager on the market. Baker, after all, has already shown the ability to connect with players who struggled under Kapler.

Just look at Mauricio Dubón. 

The Giants acquired Dubón in one of the best trades of Zaidi's tenure. However, he was relegated down the organization's depth chart and developed a tense relationship with Kapler. Ultimately, he was traded to the Astros in a minor trade. Since the deal, Dubón has proven to be a valuable role player under Baker's tutelage and was openly critical of his treatment by the Giants' organization.

"I was not treated the right way over there," Dubón said last year in reference to the Giants. "With Dusty here now, I'm in heaven."

Whether or not Dubón's feelings were justified, a manager's job is to generate buy-in from every member of the clubhouse. Baker was able to do that with Dubón.

Dubón has split his time between the infield and outfield since heading to Houston and was exactly the up-the-middle platoon bat that the Giants hoped they had acquired back in 2019. His ability to do damage against left-handed pitching (.858 OPS against lefties this season) was something that San Francisco desperately needed this year.

It would be shortchanging Baker, though, to imply relationships are the only value he brings to a clubhouse. He has integrated statistical findings into his decision making over the years, just not with the absolutism that Giants fans grew accustomed to under Kapler.

“'Dusty don’t believe in sabermetrics.' What are you talking about, man?" Baker told Ken Rosenthal back in 2018. "I don’t believe in it 100 percent. There ain’t no 100 percent of nothing. There are no absolutes. We were using it before it had a name. You’ve seen me study. What do you think, I was just writing something down?"

While Baker's pitching staff usage was heavily criticized in the 1990s and early 2000s, his approach has undergone a transformation the past two decades. Just look at how he managed this year's Astros' pitching staff.

Astros ace Framber Valdez completed 198.2 innings this season and only eclipsed 110 pitches in an outing twice. The Giants under Kapler actually used relievers on back-to-back days 8.75% more often than Baker did with the Astros. Both Tyler Rogers (17) and Camilo Doval (19) pitched as many times on back-to-back days as much as any reliever in Houston's bullpen. In fact, Phil Maton (17) was the only Astros reliever to pitch on back-to-back days more than 15 times.

The biggest legitimate knock against Baker might be questions about his longevity. Zaidi mentioned that he wants the next manager to be a good free-agent recruiter. While Baker's popularity among players and impressive resume will surely catch their eye, questions about how long he wants to continue managing could undermine his recruiting pitch to players looking for long-term deals.

But even that feels like an overstated concern. Given the frequency of firings, would a free agent be any more confident that a young manager would still be at the helm in five years? The fact is, Baker has managed three pennant-winning teams and made the playoffs in his last eight seasons. 

Baker is a well-liked proven winner. It's hard to have a better recruiting pitch than that. Given how pivotal it is for the Giants to take a significant step forward soon, can they risk passing on what Baker immediately offers if he becomes available for a less-proven candidate?

It's worth noting that Baker worked alongside incumbent bench coach Joe Espada with the Astros, who was a presumed manager-in-waiting before Crane's organizational shakeup. Zaidi and Baker could also collaborate on finding a bench coach that Baker wants to work alongside, and Zaidi envisions becoming manager down the line.

Perhaps Espada would be willing to follow Baker west if he is passed over for the Astros' job. The Giants could also look to internal options like Kai Correa, Mark Hallberg, Alyssa Nakken, or Jacob Heyward. Perhaps Stephen Vogt, who has been tied to the Giants' current vacancy but lacks coaching experience, could become Baker's right-hand man.

Of course, Baker is not available just yet. While his contract is not guaranteed in 2024, it's hard to imagine the Astros' letting him go if he wins his third consecutive pennant and second consecutive World Series. That said, if Bochy eliminates Baker from the playoffs, Houston has seemingly been setting the stage to move on from Dusty Baker for a long time. If they do, the SF Giants should be ready to celebrate a reunion.