SF Giants: Sean Manaea flashes improved velocity in spring debut

SF Giants starter Sean Manaea flashed drastically improved velocity in his spring training debut on Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds.

The SF Giants bet on Sean Manaea this offseason when they signed the former Athletics and Padres starter to a two-year, $25 million contract that included a player opt-out after the 2023 season. His first outing of spring training on Sunday gave the Giants reason to feel confident. Even with weeks to go before Opening Day, Manaea already showcased improved velocity.

SF Giants starter Sean Manaea pitching for the Padres during the 2022 season / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Manaea allowed one run on three hits with two strikeouts over the course of his outing. While there were no public radar gun readings on Sunday, Manaea told reporters that his fastball was 93-96 mph across his two innings of work. Manaea said he was working between 88-90 mph at this point last year. He credited his offseason work at Driveline for his gains.

Sean Manaea said he was 93-96 mph in his two innings today. He was 88-90 at the start of last spring. Said he can feel a difference after working out at Driveline in the offseason.

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) February 26, 2023

Manaea has never been a flamethrower. As Sarah Langs noted on Twitter, he has only thrown a pitch at least 96 mph 21 times in his career, and just 7 times over the past four seasons. The fact that he's already reaching 96 mph in his first official outing of the year is a sign that could be about to change.

Sean Manaea has thrown 2 career MLB pitches above 96.9 mph:

98.9 mph on 5/30/18
97.0 mph on 8/2/16

He’s thrown 21 pitches at 96.0+ mph: 14 in ‘16, 1 in ‘18, 4 in ‘21 and 2 in ‘22 https://t.co/hPNq3kBtKX

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) February 26, 2023

Manaea has not thrown a four-seam fastball, per Baseball Savant, since 2016, and even it only averaged 92.9 mph. His sinker has long been the fastest pitch he's thrown since, consistently sitting between 90-92 mph. Needless to say, if Manaea is able to hold mid-90s velocity throughout the 2023 season, he could be on the cusp of a career year.

In 2022, in his lone season with the Padres, Manaea recorded a career-worst 4.96 ERA in 158 innings pitched with 156 strikeouts and 50 walks. However, ERA estimators seemed to suggest that Manaea suffered from some bad luck with San Diego. His xERA (4.06), FIP (4.53), and xFIP (3.96) were all notably lower than his ERA. Moreover, his ERA has never swayed significantly from ERA estimators before, suggesting he's due for positive regression. Over his career, Manaea has a 4.06 ERA (4.07 FIP and 4.05 xFIP) in nearly 900 innings pitched.

The Giants have had great success under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi helping pitchers like Manaea rebuild their free-agent value with breakout seasons. One of the primary ways the team has helped pitchers succeed has been by shifting their pitch usage. Manaea, has relied heavily on his sinker throughout his career, throwing it roughly 60% of the time every year. While his changeup and slider have both been effective big-league pitches, his sinker could be even better if it increases in velocity.

It remains early in spring training, which could give reason either for caution or optimism. Pitchers routinely see their velocity jump over the course of the spring, meaning Manaea might have even more velo in him. However, given how intensely he worked this offseason at Driveline, the southpaw's velocity jump could simply be a function of coming into camp ahead of schedule. If Sean Manaea can maintain mid-90s velocity deep into his outings, the SF Giants might have once again found another excellent free agent starting pitcher.