Staff predictions: Will the SF Giants make the playoffs this season?

Check out how each member of Giants Baseball Insider’s team thinks the SF Giants will fare this season. (SPOILER: We're split on if they'll make the playoffs).

It's finally Opening Day!!! The SF Giants are kicking off their 162-game regular season by facing the New York Yankees later today. The Giants enter the 2023 season with hopes of returning to postseason contention after a disappointing 81-81 campaign last year. Here's how each member of the Giants Baseball Insider team thinks the Giants will finish in the standings:

JD's prediction: 94-68 (2nd in NL West, 2nd Wild Card)

94 wins. I’m predicting that the Giants finish exactly halfway between their breakout 107-win 2021 season and their 81-win dud followup. Coincidence? Actually, yes. I thought the Giants were positioned to easily hit a goal of 90 wins last year, before injuries and defensive regression scuttled their first half. With better depth all around, they should avoid those early pitfalls, and their bigger free agent signings have improved a consistently underrated roster.

Natasha's prediction: 92-70 (2nd in NL West, 2nd Wild Card)

The Giants quietly added quite a bit of starting pitcher depth this season (in comparison with their rather loud attempts at acquiring Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, at least) which should keep them from falling too far behind the Padres and Dodgers. Their relief pitchers are finally free to remain squarely in the relief role, and that should help them a great deal. That said - aside from Michael Conforto's apparent breakout in Spring Training, their power at the plate doesn't seem to have been bolstered on a surface level. Regardless, I still see them having a surprising season and coming away somewhere along the lines of 92-70, finishing second in the NL West. Nothing like 2021, but nothing to scoff at after what can only be described as a chaotic off-season.

Aya's prediction: 91-71 (t-2nd in NL West, 2nd Wild Card)

I think this Giants team is at least ten wins better than they were last year. Many roster regulars like Brandon Crawford and Lamonte Wade, Jr. look primed for a bounce back season. Offseason acquisitions like Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea will contribute in a big way if they do what they’re capable of. Plus, the likes of Casey Schmitt and Kyle Harrison wait in the wings. The team may or may not make the playoffs, but they’ll make it much tougher on their division rivals than they did last year.

Wrenzie's prediction: 88-74 (3rd in NL West, 3rd Wild Card)

The Giants were left picking up the scraps after failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa but still churned out a good team with an enviable pitching depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. I think they have enough bats to hit 200 home runs as a team this year. I am not certain that they have done enough to address the lack of athleticism or their putrid defense but this team should have enough talent to beat teams that they are meant to beat while also tango-ing with the beasts of the National League. I do worry about the team's chances in the postseason since they are built on depth and not star power, but they should have the ammo to look for a blue-chip talent in the mid-season mark if they have to.

Marc's prediction: 84-78 (3rd in NL West, Miss playoffs)

I think the Giants are a better team heading into 2023 than they were heading into 2022. The Giants have always attempted to win with depth over starpower since Farhan Zaidi has become the president of baseball operations, and after the offseason didn't turn out the way fans hoped, they are left with that strategy again.

The positive: Michael Conforto looks healthy, which puts him in position to deliver the the best season from a Giants outfielder since Hunter Pence in 2013 (or Mike Yastrzemski in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). Heading into the season, this Giants roster is probably the best from the 10th-best player on in a very long time.

However, there's a reason the Giants so coveted Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa this offseason. They have elite depth, but lack the top end talent of the best teams in the National League. On the infield, it's hard to imagine anyone giving this team the production of Brandon Crawford's 2021, Brandon Belt's 2020-21 production, Buster Posey's 2021. In the rotation, they certainly lack a 1-2 punch approaching Gausman/Webb in 2021 and Rodón/Webb last year.

They may be better, but the Padres added Xander Bogaerts, a full season of Juan Soto, and will welcome back Fernando Tatís. The Phillies added Trea Turner. The Mets replaced Jacob deGrom with Justin Verlander, solidified some weaknesses, and have several top prospects ready to contribute. Atlanta added Sean Murphy. The Cardinals added Wilson Contreras and have Jordan Walker, one of the best prospects in baseball, on the Opening Day roster. The Dodgers are the only NL postseason team entering 2023 with a clearly inferior roster, but they won 111 games last year. The Giants probably need them to be 25-30 games worse this season, and that's hard to envision at this point in time.

Pat's prediction: 83-79 (4th in NL West, Miss playoffs)

The Giants roster has a mediocre floor and a mediocre ceiling to me. This team has enough talent to win 80 games, but I don't really see them getting one of three Wild Card spots unless someone drops the ball. I'm just now mentioning the NL West crown because it should really be an afterthought for this group. They're not talented enough to trade blows with Los Angeles and San Diego. There's gonna be two teams from the NL East competing for the top two WC spots off of general principal. The Giants best shot is the final WC spot, and even that is a bit of a stretch. Oh yeah, and the D-Backs are taking strides forward as well.

Ky'Tavia's prediction: 82-80 (3rd in NL West, Miss playoffs)

Considering that the Dodgers have won at least 106 games for three straight years while the Padres made significant upgrades to solidify their status as contenders, it's hard to imagine the Giants finishing first or second in the division. Miracles and stranger things have happened! Still, the Giants have kept up with the Dodgers and Padres in the past with a very similar roster.  I think they can finesse a wild card berth. At the worst, I think they'll thug it out in 3rd place.

Sean's prediction: 80-82 (4th in NL West, Miss playoffs)

The Giants’ offseason began with such promise, and ended with signing a group of adequate, but unexciting free agents. That’s also what I’m expecting for the season: Adequate, but unexciting. The team is covered pretty well with depth pieces, particularly in the starting rotation, but just like last year, the team’s biggest weakness is a lack of offensive star power. And defense, where by my reckoning they downgraded at third and first base, while adding two theoretically superior - but chronically injured - corner outfielders. The most exciting player to watch might be Kyle Harrison, but they will be too busy manipulating his service time to let him make a massive impact.

What about you? How many games do you think the SF Giants will win this season? Answer our poll:

Alright folks, on the eve of Opening Day, how many wins do you think the #SFGiants will rack up this season?

— Bayside Baseball (@baysidebasebal) March 30, 2023