Five reasons the SF Giants could trade Camilo Doval this offseason

If the SF Giants want to make a blockbuster trade, All-Star closer Camilo Doval might be their most valuable chip.

After two seasons of mediocrity, the SF Giants are looking to make big changes this winter. One of the biggest moves they could make is shopping All-Star closer Camilo Doval in trades.

At a glance, the idea might seem ridiculous. Doval was one of the few bright spots for the Giants last year, leading the National League with 39 saves and 60 games finished. He struck out 87 hitters in 67.2 innings, striking out 31% of the batters he faced, and rarely gives up home runs, yielding only three last year - one each to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, which is understandable and possibly required by rule for a Giants closer.

But Doval might be the player who has the highest trade value on this current roster, aside from justifiably untouchable ace Logan Webb and perhaps emergent catcher Patrick Bailey and top prospect Kyle Harrison. Here are a few reasons Doval might be traded this off-season.

1. He's very inexpensive

Doval is not just years away from free agency. He's not even eligible for arbitration until after next season. A team dealing for Doval would get four years of club control for much cheaper than it would cost to sign a free-agent closer.

For comparison, the New York Mets signed their closer, Edwin Diaz, to a five-year, $102 million contract last year. Kenley Jansen got $32 million for two years from the Boston Red Sox. Craig Kimbrel got $10 million from the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Giants gave Taylor Rogers $33 million over three years just to be a top setup arm.

The Giants have argued that they are willing to use their financial might to improve this offseason. If that's true, Doval's minimum salary is less meaningful to San Francisco than a team looking to shore up its bullpen with less financial flexibility.

2. Doval is young

Doval doesn't turn 27 until July, while most of the available closers are much older. Top free-agent closer Josh Hader turns 30 early next season, Kimbrel is 35, David Robertson turns 39 in April, and former Giant Will Smith, winner of three straight World Series titles, is 34. There are few options for a team that's looking for a long-term solution in the closer role this offseason, and even fewer if that team is not willing to give out at least an eight-figure contract to a reliever.

On one hand, that's a reason for the Giants to prioritize retaining Doval as a foundational piece. On the other, it also means Doval is in the rarefied category of proven, cheap, and young that makes front offices willing to engage in bidding wars. The Giants could recoup some top prospects, reinforcing their farm system to turn around and trade for other top players on the block like Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes, or they could potentially include Doval in a blockbuster package that brings a star back to San Francisco.

3. Analytics aren't high on closers

In general, the statistical case for the closer is not all that compelling. Why pay a premium in salary or prospects for a pitcher who primarily works when the team already has a lead of one-to-three runs and might pitch 60-70 innings?

For all his saves, Doval earned 1.3 bWAR for the season - that's the same as such luminaries as Logan Allen and Shelby Miller. Yes, Doval pitches in high-leverage situations, but ultimately he pitched 4.7% of the Giants' innings, fewer than Tristan Beck, Ross Stripling, or Jakob Junis. 

Look at Billy Beane, Farhan Zaidi's old boss, who had four different closers in four years when the A's made the playoffs from 2000-2003. Aside from one Billy Koch meltdown in the 2002 playoffs, it didn't particularly affect their chances of winning. Mainly because their terrible base running cost them those series instead. The Dodgers under Zaidi did invest in retaining Kenley Jansen, but have gone with a much more committee approach since he left the organization following the 2021 season.

4. The Giants treated Doval like a disposable asset

Doval was a lot worse in the second half of the season last year, blowing six saves in 18 chances. That may well have been due to Gabe Kapler's high usage of Doval in the first half.

It's hard not to think high usage led to Camilo Doval's recent struggles. The #SFGiants had him pitch back-to-back days 19 times, complete more than an inning 10 times, and pitch four times in five days 3 times this season. And that's almost all before the end of July. https://t.co/wfKzcd9Dqi

— Marc Delucchi (@maddelucchi) September 26, 2023

The way the Giants used Doval was unusual for a major league closer. He pitched more than an inning ten times, and often pitched in back-to-back games or even four times in five days, which happened three times. Most other teams have gone away from those heavy usage patterns with closers in recent years, aiming to keep them fresh and limit their long-term risks of injury.

There may be some similarities between the Giants aggressive use of their closer and the recent trend of NFL teams using running backs on rookie contracts. In 2014, the Dallas Cowboys handed off to DeMarco Murray 392 times and passed to him 57 times, in part because they knew they were going to let Murray leave in free agency after the season and not have to worry about the long-term consequences. Using Doval the way the Giants did suggests they're not worried about preserving him as a long-term piece.

5. They have other potential closers

Despite his up-and-down first season with the Giants, Taylor Rogers has 83 career saves and was given a sizable contract to be a top high leverage reliever. His twin brother Tyler Rogers was even more effective last season and has a career ERA below 3.00 over his big-league career. A rookie Ryan Walker nearly matched Doval's strikeout totals in slightly more usage, but presumably could be even more dominant in fewer multi-inning stints. The Giants just added last year's Triple-A River Cats closer Erik Miller to the 40-man roster, and he already has one of the nastiest arsenals in the organization.

That's without considering other possible acquisitions the Giants could make to sure up the bullpen. If San Francisco ends up shopping J.D. Davis, Austin Slater, or Michael Conforto, they could prioritize big-league relievers in return. There's also the free-agent class that does have several experienced options.

Essentially, Doval's spot might be seen as an easier hole to plug than some of the other weaknesses on the roster. And with his cheap contract, team control, and strikeout rate, Camilo Doval may be the only player the SF Giants could consider trading this offseason that could net at least a consensus top-100 prospect and more in return.