Giants Baseball Insider

The SF Giants odds for the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft lottery

With the season over, we now know the SF Giants odds to have a top-six pick in the 2023 MLB Draft in the first MLB draft lottery.

Marc Delucchi

The SF Giants odds for the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft lottery
The SF Giants odds for the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft lottery /
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The SF Giants finished this season short of the playoffs with an 81-81 record. While the season was an obvious disappointment, their final place in the standings could have one big benefit next year. The current CBA introduced the first-ever MLB Draft Lottery, giving every team that misses the postseason, including a pair of small-market teams that did, an opportunity to land the first overall pick.

While the Giants finished the season with the best record of any team that missed the playoffs, they will still have a chance at the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. According to information first reported by Carlos Collazo of Baseball America, the Giants will have a 0.48% chance of winning the lottery.

Furthermore, the lottery will actually give teams a chance to have any of the top-six picks. Meanwhile, the Giants will have more than a 1 in 25 chance of having one of the first six picks in the draft. Otherwise, they will pick between 16-18 in the first round.

Obviously, winning the lottery would give the Giants a better chance to land the top prospect in next year's draft class. However, there would be other benefits as well. Higher picks come with significantly larger assigned slot values.

For example, in 2022, the Guardians had the 16th overall pick with an assigned slot of just over $3.9 million. By contrast, the Nationals had an assigned slot of nearly $6.5 million for the fifth overall pick. The first overall pick was even larger, carrying an assigned slot of more than $8.8 million.

While that assigned slot can be used to sign a better prospect in the first round, MLB allows teams to reallocate a picks slot money to other picks. So, for example, if the first overall pick next year comes with a $9 million assigned slot, the team could sign the first overall pick for $6.5 million and then use the $2.5 million in savings on other picks later in the draft, helping them get better prospects.

One early mock draft projected the SF Giants drafting two-way player Paul Skenes out of LSU, but if San Francisco lands a top-six pick through the 2023 MLB draft lottery, they will have a chance to choose from even more top prospects next summer.

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Marc Delucchi
MARC DELUCCHI

Marc Delucchi (he/they/she) serves as the Managing Editor at Giants Baseball Insider, leading their SF Giants coverage. As a freelance journalist, he has previously covered the San Francisco Giants at Around the Foghorn and McCovey Chronicles. He also currently contributes to Niners Nation, Golden State of Mind, and Baseball Prospectus. He has previously been featured in several other publications, including SFGate, ProFootballRumors, Niners Wire, GrandStand Central, Call to the Pen, and Just Baseball. Over his journalistic career, Marc has conducted investigations into how one prep baseball player lost a college opportunity during the pandemic (Baseball Prospectus) and the rampant mistreatment of players at the University of Hawaii football program under former head coach Todd Graham (SFGate). He has also broken dozens of news stories around professional baseball, primarily around the SF Giants organization, including the draft signing of Kyle Harrison, injuries and promotions to top prospects like Heliot Ramos, and trade details in the Kris Bryant deal. Marc received a Bachelor's degree from Kenyon College with a major in economics and a minor in Spanish. During his time in college, he conducted a summer research project attempting to predict the future minor-league performance of NCAA hitters, worked as a data analyst for the school's Women's basketball team, and worked as a play-by-play announcer/color commentator for the basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer teams. He also worked as an amateur baseball scout with the Collegiate Baseball Scouting Network (later renamed Evolution Metrix), scouting high school and college players for three draft cycles. For tips and inquiries, feel free to reach out to Marc directly on Twitter or via email (delucchimarc@gmail.com).

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