Midseason 2023 SF Giants prospect rankings: Which prospects are on the rise?

With the MLB Draft and trade deadline coming soon, Marc and Wrenzie updated their ranking of the top prospects in the SF Giants farm system.

It's no secret that the SF Giants have benefited from the emergence of several prospects this season who have already reached the majors. However, there has been plenty of action at the minor-league level impacting the evaluations of players as well. With the MLB Draft less than a week away and the trade deadline just a few weeks later, it's worth revisiting our preseason prospect rankings so folks have a better chance of where minor leaguers stand throughout the farm system.

We are not going to include the scouting reports that we did during the preseason simply because that would take too much time. However, we decided to answer some notable questions that we felt fans might have. We are also going to answer mailbag questions (info on how to submit a question at the end of the article), so feel free to ask about any players you are most interested in.

Where would you rank the players who have graduated? (Casey Schmitt and Blake Sabol)

Wrenzie: I’d still rank Schmitt high on the rankings amidst all of his recent offensive struggles, most likely at fourth or fifth behind either Luciano or Matos in the 50-FV tier. For Sabol, I like him as a backup player and backups usually get a true 40 FV grade though factoring in the age, he’d likely miss my rankings and fall in the 35+ tier.

Marc: Schmitt remains a 50-FV grade for me but has been usurped by Bailey and Whisenhunt, so he would rank sixth. Sabol stays right around where I had him ranked preseason, toward the back of the 40+ tier (right behind Wade Meckler).

SF Giants catcher Patrick Bailey legs out a triple against the Rockies. (2023) / © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

What part of your preseason rankings were you most wrong about?

Wrenzie: I was low on Patrick Bailey and Luis Matos, and both have already turned into valuable big-league contributors in a short amount of time. On the other end, the relievers I was high on (Cole Waites and RJ Dabovich) took a hit to their big-league hopes. I was always a fan of Walker, and, in hindsight, should have been more aggressive in his ranking prior to the season.

Marc: It’s time to eat some crow on Bailey. I’m still not sure what to make of his offensive performance in the majors, but he looks like a long-term starting MLB catcher even if his offense regresses. With a pretty solid 50 floor, he's showing off legitimate 60+ upside as a rookie.

The biggest shift in the majors has been going from a .173/.289/.268 hitter (he was 3-24 with zero extra-base hits this season) in the minors against left-handed pitching to a lefty-mashing machine with an OPS north of 1.000. If he’s a viable threat against lefties, something I’m still unsure of, Bailey has a ceiling approaching elite catchers like J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal. I'm high on Matos, Luciano, and Harrison, and frankly have no problem with any order of the top four prospects in the system at this point, but Bailey has earned the top spot.

What part of your preseason rankings were you most right about?

Wrenzie: The biggest bright spot from my rankings was pushing Victor Bericoto inside my top 30. His strong showing at the High-A level, displaying both hitting for average and power at his age, is incredibly impressive and has improved the industry's perception of him.

Marc: I’m taking a victory lap on staying high on Matos after his down 2022 season. I had him as the third-ranked prospect in the system heading into the year and thought his removal from nearly every top-100 prospect list was too reactive. It looks like I can pat myself on the back on that one. He’s rejoined Luciano and Harrison in the trio of top-tier players in the organization. His lack of power (don’t let his PCL production fool you) limits his upside, and it’s why I have no qualms with anyone preferring Harrison or Luciano over him, but his defense in center field is good, and his hit tool now with his improved approach has 70-grade potential.

Which prospects do you think the SF Giants are most likely to trade at the deadline?

Wrenzie: Whenever I think of prospects and the trade deadline every year, I think of prospects who are performing well that season but have a clear flaw in their game (e.g. defense, strikeouts, performance over pure stuff). Even though he’s a prospect that I am excited about, I have Bericoto as one of those said prospects due to his subpar defense. If the Giants do get real fancy and look to add star power to the roster, expect the names of Marco Luciano, Vaun Brown, Mason Black, and Landen Roupp to float around those discussions.

Marc: Grant McCray and Aeverson Arteaga are the obvious names to watch if the Giants target prominent rentals. They are young prospects for the High-A level and did well enough at Single-A last year to still be viewed as potential everyday players despite some High-A struggles. However, set to be Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, Farhan Zaidi generally likes to save those 40-man roster spots for players closer to the majors. I imagine the Giants will shop 40-man roster relievers like Waites, Jose Cruz, and Randy Rodriguez as well, although I’m not sure what their market will look like.

What is the current state of the SF Giants farm system?

Wrenzie: The Giants farm system certainly has rebounded nicely after a step back last year, especially at the hitting front, but the step back from the pitching front is a reflection of how volatile the system is. The graduation of the top prospects (Schmitt, Sabol) and the eventual graduation of many others (Bailey, Beck, Walker, Winn, Matos maybe) will surely put a dent in the farm system’s ceiling and depth but producing long-term MLB pieces is ultimately what you want. It is now a matter of replenishing the cupboard with the upcoming 2023 draft class.

Marc: I always thought there was a bit of an overblown narrative that the Giants farm system had tanked last year. Part of that was motivated by my evaluation of Matos, but there were also several players who surged in the second half of the season (Schmitt, most notably). Now, as with Matos a year ago, I’m still high on Arteaga and McCray despite their slumps, and there are several high-upside players at the lower levels on top-100 trajectories (Gerelmi Maldonado, Rayner Arias, and Reggie Crawford). Plus, they are about to add another draft class, which will benefit from a comp pick for the departure of Carlos Rodón in free agency.

I believe the SF Giants should be very aggressive buyers at the deadline. The main reason for that is there is an impressive amount of depth in the farm system that should allow San Francisco to trade good prospects that could one day become good big-league players without tanking their long-term ability to remain competitive.

For the uninitiated, prospects are ranked based on their future-value grade on the scouting 20-80 scale. A system’s talent is never evenly distributed. Just because someone is ranked one spot away from another, the grades are better indicators of how we classify players than any specific ranking. Here’s a breakdown of what the expected peak of a player with each grade looks like.

80: Top 5 player in MLB (8+ WAR per season)
70: Top 10 player in MLB (5-8 WAR)
60: All-Star (3.5-5 WAR)
55: Above-average everyday player (2.5-3.5 WAR)
50: Everyday player (1.5-2.5 WAR)
45: Platoon player (0.5-1.5 WAR)
40: MLB backup (0.2-0.5 WAR)
35: Quad-A player (-0.2-0.2 WAR)
30: Triple-A player
25: Double-A player
20: High-A player

Players who only received at least a 40 FV grade from either Marc or Wrenzie in italics.

Marc’s midseason 2023 SF Giants prospect rankings
1. Patrick Bailey (55)
2. Luis Matos
3. Marco Luciano
4. Kyle Harrison
5. Carson Whisenhunt (50)
6. Rayner Arias (45+)
7. Aeverson Arteaga
8. Keaton Winn
9. Reggie Crawford
10. Gerelmi Maldonado
11. Grant McCray
12. Mason Black (45)
13. Tyler Fitzgerald
14. Landen Roupp
15. Tristan Beck
16. Vaun Brown (40+)
17. Ryan Walker
18. Victor Bericoto
19. Eric Silva
20. Brett Wisely
21. Carson Seymour
22. Wade Meckler
23. Jairo Pomares
24. Heliot Ramos
25. Diego Velasquez (40)
26. Onil Perez
27. Yosneiker Rivas
28. Sean Hjelle
29. William Kempner
30. Adrian Sugastey
31. Liam Simon
32. Spencer Miles
33. Ismael Munguia
34. Hayden Birdsong
35. Randy Rodriguez
36. Ben Madison
37. Ricardo Genovés
38. Alexander Suarez
39. Trevor McDonald
40. Erik Miller
41. Kai-Wei Teng
42. Manuel Mercedes
43. Jose Cruz

Wrenzie’s midseason 2023 SF Giants prospect Rankings
1. Kyle Harrison (55)
2. Patrick Bailey (50)
3. Marco Luciano
4. Luis Matos
5. Reggie Crawford (45)
6. Carson Whisenhunt
7. Wade Meckler (40+)
8. Rayner Arias
9. Keaton Winn
10. Mason Black
11. Tyler Fitzgerald
12. Grant McCray
13. Landen Roupp
14. Vaun Brown
15. Aeverson Arteaga
16. Tristan Beck (40)
17. Gerelmi Maldonado
18. Onil Perez
19. Ryan Walker
20. Erik Miller
21. Victor Bericoto
22. Brett Wisely
23. Carson Ragsdale
24. Carson Seymour
25. Diego Velasquez
26. Hayden Birdsong
27. Liam Simon
28. William Kempner
29. Jose Cruz
30. Heliot Ramos
31. Adrian Sugastey
32. Ben Madison
33. Sean Hjelle
34. Eric Silva
35. Manuel Mercedes
36. Randy Rodriguez
37. Ryan Murphy
38. Jack Choate
39. Carter Howell
40. Alexander Suarez
41. Trevor McDonald
42. Ismael Munguia

Do you have any questions about the SF Giants farm system or Marc/Wrenzie's rankings? Well, Marc and Wrenzie will be answering them in a mailbag. If you want to submit a question, email it to delucchimedia@gmail.com or tweet it and tag one of @SFGiantsFN, @maddelucchi, or @giantprospective on Twitter.