SF Giants: 8 prospects who could be on the verge of a breakout season

Which eight SF Giants prospects have the biggest chance to have a breakout season in 2023?

Every year sees several prospects in every farm system seemingly come out of nowhere. Last season, SF Giants prospects like Grant McCray, Vaun Brown, and Landen Roupp all went from fringe top-30 prospects in the farm system to ranking among the organization's 10 best prospects. As the calendar flips to 2023, who are the prospects most likely to follow suit and experience a breakout year? Marc and Wrenzie each picked four prospects currently ranked outside of the top 25 prospects that they think could be among the system's top 10 prospects at this point next year.

P.J. Hilson

P.J. Hilson took a long time to adjust to professional pitching, but he seemed to turn a corner last season, hitting .313/.388/.565 with 17 doubles, six triples, 11 home runs, and 15 stolen bases in 69 games. Hilson might be the fastest player and have the strongest arm of any outfielder in the farm system. An elite athlete, Hilson will have a long big-league career if he can just develop a 40-grade hit tool. If he progresses as a hitter, he could be on the verge of blowing up. -Marc

Rayner Arias

It feels like cheating to choose the top signing in the most recent IFA class for the Giants as a breakout candidate but there was not much fanfare for the Dominican outfielder. However, Arias has flashed big time offensive upside and is credited with having an advanced feel for the game. If Arias impresses the Giants enough to start his career at the Arizona Complex League, he could shoot up rankings quickly.-Wrenzie

SF Giants prospect Ismael Munguia celebrates a double with the Nicaraguan national team. (2021) / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Ismael Munguia

Ismael Munguia seemed on the verge of solidifying himself as a legitimate top prospect after hitting .336/.366/.502 with a 7.6% strikeout rate at High-A in 2021, but he underwent wrist surgery and missed all of last season. The injury obviously creates serious questions about his future, but he's an above-average athlete with the ability to handle all three outfield positions and the best hit tool in the system. -Marc

William Kempner

Say what you want about recent Giants drafts, but the team's third-round picks have turned out exquisitely over the past few years. Grant McCray, Kyle Harrison, and Mason Black all rank among the 10 best prospects in the system. Now, their most recent third-round pick, William Kempner will look to join them. Kempner has unique traits that should allow him to excel in pro ball. He has a deceptive delivery with a pair of plus pitches that should help him dominate the lower minor-league levels. -Wrenzie

Victor Bericoto

Wrenzie did a great job breaking down Bericoto already, but he's one of the purest hitters in the farm system with above-average power potential. His defensive limitations probably make it hard for him to jump up rankings, but I think he has a chance to stick in the corner outfield. -Marc

Ryan Reckley 

It is not a secret that Reckley did not perform up to expectations. However, a source told Giants Baseball Injury that Reckley suffered a spine injury sliding into second base that could be to blame for his abysmal numbers. Reckley is back working out and looks healthy and he's added substantial muscle to his frame. Most of Reckley’s issues when he was an amateur stemmed from a lack of strength resulting in a draggy bat path. If this transformation translates to more pop, Reckley could surge up rankings. -Wrenzie

Alexander Suarez

I just really liked my in-person looks at Alexander Suarez at San Jose last season. While he looked overmatched at times, I saw him make in-game adjustments that give me hope that he's going to have a breakout year if he returns to Single-A. He is far from the hitter that Bericoto is, but he's a significantly better athlete. -Marc

Liam Simon 

With a bevy of pitchers drafted once again last year, it is easy to double-dip on potential breakout prospects on the pitching side. This time, it’s fifth-rounder Liam Simon. Simon already showcased flashes of command with his fastball after a small tweak to his arm slot once he turned pro. That resulted in at-bats where he is just plain overpowering while still having plenty of carry down in the zone. While Simons profiles as a reliever, he has a non-zero shot of becoming a starter due to his three-pitch mix. If Simon can improve the consistency of his secondaries (his mid-80s slider and high-80s changeup) along with the control, there is a big chance for a breakout similar to what Mason Black enjoyed just a year ago. -Wrenzie