SF Giants free-agent breakdown: New York Yankees star Aaron Judge

Should the SF Giants pursue New York Yankees star Aaron Judge this offseason? Only if they like winning.

I love the idea of “active” leaders in baseball, as far as stats go. It draws the storied fabric of baseball history closer to the present, celebrating those who proved themselves the greatest of all time, while at the same time embracing the storied successes of players right now. Some records may never be broken, but all have a champion of at least some repute, players who can claim that no one else right now can do what they’re doing.

SF Giants free-agent target Aaron Judge watches a home run with the Yankees. (2022) / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Judge, then, has earned his bragging rights - and then some - by being a worthy successor to SF Giants legend Barry Bonds as the active single-season home run leader. It’s likely that until he retires, 62 will be the mark that all other sluggers are compared to. But Judge isn’t just a three-true-outcomes lumberjack at the plate, despite what his 6’8 frame suggests.

In 2022, he led the league in on-base percentage and slugging (consequently leading in OPS and OPS+ as well), as well as runs, home runs, RBI, walks, and total bases. He played in 157 games, stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, hit .311, and was intentionally walked nearly 20 times. The only hole in his statistical profile is that he didn’t hit any triples, which is like asking the chef at Ruth’s Chris why your steak didn’t come with a cupcake. 

What makes Judge so attractive is that a season like this has been building up for a while. In 2017, his rookie campaign, he led the league in home runs, runs, and walks. He won Rookie of the Year honors and finished second in American League MVP voting. Not counting his time in 2016 as a September call-up, Judge will have garnered MVP votes in four of his six seasons once this year’s tallies come in. The two years he didn’t were the two years he dealt with injury the most, missing 60 games in 2019 and about half of the covid-shortened 2020 season. Even then, he “merely” put up OPS totals of .921 and .891, respectively. 

The more I examine Judge’s career, the more sense it makes for the Giants to offer him anything they can. He fits San Francisco in every conceivable way. He’s never had a truly bad offensive season, and when he’s hot, he can lap the Giants’ next-best hitter in home runs while still leading the team in batting average. On the field, he plays a good center field, which just so happens to be the position that the Giants need an everyday player for in order to settle the corner outfield positions. In the clubhouse, he’s widely acknowledged as a clubhouse leader and unofficial captain, and off the field, he grew up a Giants fan an hour and a half away from San Francisco in Linden, where his family still lives.

There are, I think, four holdups in total that could prevent the Giants from making an aggressive enough push to sign him. The first is Judge’s strikeout rate. Judge struck out 175 times in 2022, and even in his Rookie of the Year campaign, he led the league with 208 strikeouts.

That’s at least a small concern, but only on the surface. In every season he’s had more than 150 strikeouts, he’s garnered MVP votes. He’s also exceeded 600 plate appearances in three of those four seasons. Striking out might be a part of who he is, but it’s clearly not a hindrance to his greatness. It’s up to the Giants to decide whether they think it will become a larger problem four to six years from now, but MVP-type players retain their abilities better than most.

Aaron Judge hustles for a single / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of retaining value, Judge’s age is the second biggest reason for pause. 2023 will be his age-31 season, and the Giants probably aren’t salivating at the thought of paying $30-$40 million a year for a player past their 40th birthday, which is what they’re likely to have to do. You really have to be concerned with value there. On the 2022 free agent market, position players only provided one win above replacement (WAR) for every $5.38 million a team spent. Granted, statisticians constantly argue about how to properly value WAR. That said, by that value, Judge provided $38 million of surplus value over his $19 million contract in his historic season… 38 million dollars. And that’s one of the lowest WAR-per-dollar figures in recent years. Whatever Judge ends up getting paid, he’s worth it.

The third item is health concerns. Judge has missed significant portions of the 2018-2020 seasons with injuries: 50 games in 2018, 60 in 2019, and 32 in the 60-game 2020 season. Other than that, he’s avoided long absences during the rest of his career.

Judge is a 6’8 hulk of a human, so it’s hard to tell what his aging curve and injury projections look like, but he’s also not a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery or someone who’s dealt with back pain their whole career. I don’t think Judge’s medicals are a dealbreaker, but it could throw up red flags in the Giants’ front office. It’s at least something to consider. 

More likely than anything else, though, the biggest roadblock to getting Judge to San Francisco is the New York Yankees. If Hal Steinbrenner opens up his checkbook and offers Judge a 10-year, $350 million contract, will the Giants be able to compete? Should they?

There’s a real chance that Judge’s agent uses the Giants as leverage to get every cent he can out of New York, who just got swept in the ALCS, lack any other star power at the moment, and operate in a furiously demanding market. Unless Judge wants to leave New York, the Giants may need to blow the Yankees offer out of the water. Would they be willing to commit to Judge into his forties with a contract paying him around $40 million a year?

Still, the Giants have an extremely clear balance sheet, are ready to win now, and have a fan base slowly slipping away. If there’s any team out there who should be willing to outbid the Yankees by a sizable margin, it’s the Giants. 

Overall, the Giants have huge needs that can only be met by a massive man. Aaron Judge fits the bill in every conceivable way, and his value absolutely meets whatever they’ll have to offer in terms of dollars and cents. Judge would be the centerpiece of a roster for his childhood team, play at one of the most beautiful ballparks in the world, and continue contending for a title for most or all of his career. Plus, he won’t get booed by his fans if he strikes out in the playoffs. This one’s easy. Make it happen, SF Giants.