SF Giants free-agent breakdown: Boston Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts

The SF Giants need a premier infield defender with elite hitting skills, durability, and a little bit of power. Enter Boston Red Sox star Xander Bogaerts.

Welcome to the latest installment of our SF Giants free-agent breakdown. In past articles, we’ve covered what it would take for the Giants to acquire Trea Turner and Carlos Correa, two of the top free agents anchoring another historically strong shortstop class. Today, we’ll continue with another infield captain, Red Sox star Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts ranks seventh on Giants Baseball Insider's rankings of the best free agents this offseason.

Could Xander Bogaerts be the SF Giants splash signing this winter? / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Part of the beauty of researching top targets in free agency is that the rationale for considering them largely boils down to one conclusion - they’re very good at baseball, and they’d help whatever team they landed on. Technically that’s two conclusions, but the point remains that Bogaerts - as well as Turner, Correa, and Swanson, who rounds out the ‘elite shortstop’ group - would unquestionably make the Giants better next year. He’d make the Giants better in 2024 and 2025, too. Past that, it’s a muddled mishmash of hypotheticals and value plays, dependent on the coaching staff and front office’s ability to put him in positions to succeed. But Bogaerts is in a position for teams to make those long-term projections about him precisely because he’s good enough to make betting on him worth it.

His value starts with his hitting. Last year, Bogaerts slashed .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs, good for an OPS that was 31% better than league average - right where you’d expect a consistently above-average hitter to be. And the consistency in Bogaert’s track record really is amazing. The last time he finished with a batting average under .300 was 2018. Seven of his ten big league seasons have seen him finish with at least a .280 batting average. In the past five years, though, he’s really taken off: three All-Star games, four top-20 MVP finishes, four Silver Sluggers.

If there’s any nit to pick, it’s that Bogaerts’ OPS has fallen steadily from his .939 mark that earned him a top-5 MVP finish in 2019, all the way down to .833 this past season. Yet the batting averages remain practically identical, from .309 in 2019 to .307 in 2022, indicating that he’s still in his prime at the plate. It’s not surprising, then, that Bogaerts has racked up three Silver Slugger awards in the past four years, and five in his career. But it’s in upgrading that metal that Bogaerts’ career has seen the most tarnish.

That’s because no one would mistake Xander Bogaerts for a Gold Glove shortstop. Despite the fact that he’s played his entire career at the position, Bogaerts’ defense has been below average by most defensive metrics. Outs Above Average has him giving up 5 more outs per year than an average defender, per Statcast. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has Bogaerts in the negatives for his entire career save one year, and Total Zone doesn’t rate him much better. If there’s a concern about Bogaerts, it starts and ends with his defense.

And yet.

That one year that Bogaerts wasn’t below average, per DRS? Last year. And it wasn’t just an improvement that saw him go from bad to average. No, Bogaerts’ defense was next level, to the point that he saw himself nominated for a Gold Glove.  Defensive improvements of that level are rare, but in this case, they might be surprisingly sustainable. Bogaerts credits his defensive explosion to a new offseason practice regimen and structured defensive pregame routines. By structurally leveling up his defense, he was able to turn himself into a legitimate asset at the shortstop position. 

It’s fair to wonder just how far those defensive improvements will take Bogaerts, but it’s likely those habits he developed will last him longer than his physical prime. After all, we’ve seen Brandon Crawford retain excellent defensive ability deep into his 30s, and Bogaerts is still a ways away from that. If Bogaerts has made the jump to a seasoned defender that makes plays as much with his preparation as with his physicality, he could remain one of the most valuable infield defenders through the length of his contract, which would make him one of the most valuable free agent signings of the year period. The fact that he’s played 53 games at third base - which gives the Giants an option to work around Crawford’s final year without blunting Bogaerts’ defensive impact down the road - is just the cherry on top.

Normally, this is about the time when I note that yes, free agent player X might be good now, but we also have to consider how many games he’ll actually play on his contract. Not Bogaerts. He’s been an iron man for the Red Sox, playing at least 140 games (pro-rated, in the case of 2020) eight times. He’s the most durable player I’ve researched in the past year and a half, which of course means he’s going to break his hamate bone in a freak xylophone tournament accident if he signs with the Giants. But aside from any musically-motivated maladies, Bogaerts is one of free agency's best bets to be available throughout a big free-agent contract.

That contract will, of course, be constrained by the fact that Bogaerts will play next year well into his age-30 season. Bogaerts is nine months older than Trea Turner, so aging concerns are that much more relevant. But for the Giants, this might end up being a good thing. Contract projections are much more reasonable for Bogaerts than they are for Turner, who might sign a $300 million deal for as much as 10 years. Bogaerts, meanwhile, has his projections set around the 6-8 year and $180-210 million range, as Red Sox writer Jen McCaffrey has speculated. Mets writer Tim Britton pegs Bogaerts at 7 years, $175 million, while ex-GM Jim Bowden projects the same amount of years but pushing the (second) century mark at $196 million.

Bogaerts hasn’t pushed terms to set his market yet, but as a Scott Boras client, he’s likely to chase the biggest years-and-dollars pact he can find. That works against the Giants’ favor, as they’d likely pay a few extra dollars to snip an extra year or two off the end there. My guess is they’d be comfortable at about a 6-year, $180 million dollar contract, but that dollar amount might not be enough. Alternatively, an 8-year, $250 million contract with two club options in the last two years would be a good way to pad the numbers without actually committing to the back end of the contract.

As much interest as the SF Giants have in big-name free agents this offseason, Xander Bogaerts might offer the best way for them to acquire a star on their terms. Longoria’s buyout and Crawford’s age means that there’s ample opportunity to fit Bogaerts into the left side of the infield in whatever configuration works best, and he’d instantly inject high average and thump into a lineup that fell short of both last year. For a team that’s looking to make big splashes in the infield, outfield, and starting rotation, signing Bogaerts away from Boston Harbor to San Francisco Bay would be a hell of a start.