SF Giants free-agent breakdown: Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander

From the Tigers, to Astros, and now potentially the SF Giants, future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander has always looked good in orange.

J.T. Snow. Moises Alou. Mike Matheny. Omar Vizquel.

These were the everyday players throughout the SF Giants lineup all the way back in 2005, a generation and a half ago (in baseball terms, anyhow) when Justin Verlander made his first start for the Detroit Tigers. Since then, he’s simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball, right up there with some guy named Clayton Kershaw.

© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

In his storied career, Verlander’s been nominated for the Cy Young award ten times - on average, he’s finished a tick under fourth. He’s earned MVP votes in 7 of his 17 seasons, and earned a trip to the All-Star Game nine times. He’s led the league in wins and ERA twice, and five times in hits, games started, strikeouts, and WHIP. He’s a Hall-of-Famer looking for a big payday during his second go at free agency. Seems like a nice enough get for whichever team is willing to pay for his services.

Ah, but there’s a ‘but’. He’s turning 40. His 2021 season was wiped out because of Tommy John surgery, something only nine other pitchers have ever returned from at age 37 or greater. He’s done. Pass.

Except….

Except this year, he led the league in wins. And ERA. And WHIP. And hits per 9 innings. And threw 175 innings, a number that was exactly 100 times higher than his ERA. 

Did I mention he finally won a World Series game?

If there’s a bigger enigma on the marketplace this offseason, I’ve yet to meet one. Verlander is a 40-year-old wily veteran who throws mid-to-upper 90’s fastballs. He just came off of Tommy John and delivered one of his finest seasons. He’s looking for a short-term contract for a career that could still have a few good years left. If you think you can make sense of all of this, some guy named Charles Johnson wants to meet you.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander watches SF Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval round the bases following a home run in the 2012 World Series. (2012) / © Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY

There's as much uncertainty with going after Verlander as there is anyone else, but in his case, it’s less of a coin flip than a dice roll. Despite the concerns, he's the fifth-best free agent this winter, per Giants Baseball Insider's free-agent rankings. With Carlos Rodón in 2022, none of us had any idea whether he’d make it to 15 innings, let alone 150. Verlander, on the other hand, has been on the injured ilist twice in his career. If the Giants pick him up and he throws even an average Verlander season, oh what a bargain they’ve found. A feel-good Verlander throwing better than 2021 Gausman or 2022 Rodón would be huge for a Giants team that needs to make up every inch of ground they lost to the Dodgers this year. They just need to avoid rolling snake eyes on one of their biggest bets on next year's season. No sweat.

It’s a lot to stake your season, even in part, on a 40-year-old dude who relies upper-90s fastballs to keep getting guys out. Really, only Verlander himself knows what he has left on his arm, if he’ll have to empty the tank for one last ride, or if he’s got a few good years left in it still. But if there’s anyone who’s shown that he can defy expectations, isn’t it Verlander? He’s taken on a full season’s load after deciding not to rush his recovery, he set a new personal best in ERA this year, and his fastball velocity has somehow managed to increase over the last four years. 

Even if he begins to decline, whether naturally from age or rebounding from his first full post-TJ season, he’s still the kind of guy that can throw 150+ innings with an ERA solidly in the 2.00s. Combined with the fact that he’s looking for a high-AAV, short-term contract, he’s essentially the perfect free agent fit for the SF Giants. They’ve proven they can keep players with injury histories fresh, and maximize their value before they hit free agency once again. The Giants seem content to keep filling an ace-sized hole with a different cement each offseason, and Verlander is solid enough to fit right in. If there’s ever a bet that would look obvious to take in hindsight, this would be it. 

Besides, he looks best in orange.