SF Giants free agent fit profile: San Diego Padres ace Blake Snell

As the SF Giants look to upgrade their rotation, could San Diego Padres free agent ace Blake Snell end up a top target?

How much is a Cy Young worth to the SF Giants?

That's the question that looms large when it comes to free agent lefty Blake Snell, who sailed past Logan Webb and Zac Gallen to take home the 2023 Cy Young Award. Snell, who finished his season with the Padres by posting a 1.20 ERA over his last 23 starts, has proven he can be as dominant as anyone. But whether he fits in San Francisco after his walk-year heroics is a tricky question.

Padres ace Blake Snell pitches during the first inning against the SF Giants. (2023) / Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Let's start with the positives. Snell's latest Cy Young is actually his second, his first coming in 2018 when he pitched 180 innings of 1.89 ERA ball. Snell dominates with his off-speed stuff, with his curveball being the most effective pitch in baseball last year (min. 150 PA). That's why, despite a slightly inflated WHIP, Snell proved incredibly effective at stranding baserunners throughout the past season. He suppressed hits better than anyone in baseball last year - even when runners got on, teams simply couldn't cash in to do damage. At his best, the Giants would be snagging Snell to give themselves the two best pitchers in the National League.

If the faint embers of 2021 can still spark a run three years later, the Giants will need elite starting pitching to make a dent in the postseason. The raw ingredients are there - Webb is a bona fide ace, Alex Cobb is still sneakily effective, and Kyle Harrison could become a dynamo - but there's a reason the Giants limped through last season with barely a rotation to speak of. They'll need more to push them through 2024 and beyond. Snell's career 3.33 ERA in the postseason (12 games) would certainly provide stability for the rest of the Giants' moving parts. 

Still, it's fair to question whether Snell is the guy for the job. Despite those sparkling Cy Young years, here are Snell's lifetime totals:

	ERA	Innings
2016	3.54	89.0
2017	4.04	129.1
2018	1.89	180.2
2019	4.29	107.0
2020	3.24	50.0
2021	4.20	128.2
2022	3.38	128.0
2023	2.25	180.0

That's a career consisting of two extremely high quality years, and six... you know, pretty okay years. Even when the raw ERA is fine, the inning totals just aren't there. The concern is less "will he take a bunch of millions of dollars and then immediately get terrible," and more, "can the Giants survive paying $30 million dollars to a guy who throws 125 innings with a 4.00 ERA?"

It's a Faustian bargain they've pulled off before, which is pretty fascinating considering you don't actually get to win those deals. Maybe there is a way to thread a camel through the eye of the needle, but this feels a bit more Sean Manaea than Kevin Gausman, mostly because Snell walked more than half a batter an inning last year. He's the first Cy Young winner to lead the majors in walks. Signing a guy whose stuff is better than his command feels even riskier with a pitcher entering his age-31 season. 

On the other hand, you have to ask whether the Giants really have room to be picky this offseason. If they don't land Ohtani - which has about a 90% probability of happening - they're going to have a lot of cash to spend once again. Maybe they like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, or Jordan Montgomery more, but Blake Snell would make the Giants a better team this year and beyond. Who knows? Maybe the Giants can coax the type of consistency out of Snell that finally makes up for letting Gausman go.

I just can't quite squint hard enough to see picking up Snell as a likely outcome. If he's the centerpiece of the Giants' offseason, it's hard to see them as contenders going into next year. And that's no knock on him. It's just that if they do get Snell, they're probably paying him $25-30 million a year to upgrade an area that wasn't the problem last year. Considering that there's no Aaron Judge or Marcus Semien available on the free agent front this year, it would probably necessitate a blockbuster trade, the type that we haven't quite seen this front office secure yet. 

All hand-wringing aside, Blake Snell is the reigning NL Cy Young winner. Signing Snell would only strengthen the SF Giants' chances at employing next year's recipient, price be damned. That alone might be worth it to a retooling organization like San Francisco.