The Yankees don't have a better supporting cast for Aaron Judge than the SF Giants

Aaron Judge may choose the Yankees over the SF Giants, but New York is not clearly in a better position to win going forward, writes Marc Delucchi.

The SF Giants remain the biggest threat to lure outfielder Aaron Judge away from the New York Yankees this offseason. The sweepstakes for Judge, and surrounding rumors, are approaching a fever pitch as the Winter Meetings get underway. A growing narrative has emerged, driven by the Yankees fanbase and New York media, that Judge would clearly have a worse supporting cast with the Giants than if he stayed with the Yankees. But is that really the case? Let's take a look at how these two teams compare without Judge going forward.

Aaron Judge watches a home run during the 2022 postseason / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Do the Yankees have a better lineup without Aaron Judge than the SF Giants?

Yankees not named Judge hit .233/.311/.396 in 2022 despite playing in the AL East's hitter-friendly environments and benefiting from Judge's presence in the lineup. Surprisingly, their line is nearly identical to the Giants' .234/.315/.390 triple-slash in 2022.

If you remove current free agents who posted at least a 100 OPS+ (league average) with the Yankees or Giants in 2022 from the overall numbers, the numbers are even more identical.

Yankees: .231/.308/.386
Giants: .232/.314/.385

If you remove Judge from the equation, both teams had four qualified hitters record at least a 100 OPS+ in 2022. While all four Giants were 31 or younger, Gleyber Torres was the only Yankees hitter to reach that mark under the age of 32, and Torres has been at the center of trade rumors all offseason.

The Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo this offseason, but the Giants got Joc Pederson to accept a qualifying offer. While Rizzo has undeniably had a better career, they have had virtually identical production over the past two seasons (.799 OPS vs. .800 OPS), and Pederson is nearly three years younger.

Otherwise, both the Giants and Yankees current rosters are filled with players coming off 2022 seasons that fell short of expectations. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and shortstop Brandon Crawford lead that group for the Giants. They may never bounce back to their previous levels of production, but Crawford was an MVP candidate in 2021 while Yaz was an above-average everyday player who hit 25 homers.

Yankees outfielder Harrison Bader and third baseman Josh Donaldson are comparable in terms of track record, and probably have better reputations, but it's hard to argue that's clearly a better duo than Yaz and Crawford.

Crawford is a year younger than Donaldson, has been healthier, and has a better batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage over the past three seasons. Plus, he remains at least an above-average defensive shortstop.

Bader is four years younger than Yastrzemski but was less productive offensively in 2019, 2020, and 2022 while only posting a marginally better line in 2021. Early offseason projections expect them to be comparable players next season.

Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu are the Yankees remaining hold cards. Stanton slugged 31 homers in a down year that was mired by injuries. But he turned 33 in August. LeMahieu has failed to post a slugging percentage better than .377 in each of the past two seasons and will turn 35 next July. How confident can the Yankees be that they are not on the verge of serious decline?

SF Giants corner bat LaMonte Wade Jr. connects with a pitch. (2022) / D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Beyond the big names, the Giants likely will expect more from J.D. Davis, David Villar, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Joey Bart in 2022. Davis and Villar were excellent after joining the team in the second half this season. Wade had a down year after a breakout 2021. Bart was once a consensus top-50 prospect in the minors and showed flashes throughout his first full season as the team's starting catcher. 

Beyond Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera, two prospects who had promising MLB debuts in 2022 with the Yankees, the only other remaining player with any degree of above-average offensive track record is Aaron Hicks, who is multiple seasons removed from productive campaigns at the plate.

Presumably, both the Yankees and Giants will make other additions beyond Judge this offseason, but ultimately both franchises have a weak core group of hitters. The Yankees have bigger names to surround Aaron Judge in the lineup next season, but the reality is those players are not clearly better than what the Giants currently have to offer.

Do the Yankees have a better pitching staff than the SF Giants?

While the focus has been on the Giants lineup around Judge this offseason, the strongest argument for the Yankees supporting cast is actually on the mound. New York already has a formidable starting five lined up for 2023 (Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino, and Domingo German). The Giants, on the other hand, are expected to let the best pitcher on the team in 2022 (Carlos Rodón) walk in free agency. Granted, they have also said they will add at least one starter this offseason.

SF Giants starter Logan Webb throws a pitch. (2022) / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Almost everyone around MLB would choose the Yankees staff over the Giants at this point in time, even if San Francisco inks Kodai Senga, the pitcher they have been most tied to this offseason. With that said, if teams were asked to pick one pitcher from either staff for the next 3-5 years, most fans would be surprised by how many would take Giants starter Logan Webb. Cole, after all, is entering his age-32 season while Webb turned 26 in November.

Few, even in New York, have tried pushing this narrative probably because the Giants front office under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been unparalleled in its ability to find breakout pitchers. There seems to be a leaguewide expectation that the Giants will be able to maintain an elite rotation.

Moreover, Giants pitchers posted higher ERAs than statistics like FIP, xFIP, and xERA suggested was in line with their performance. The opposite was true of the Yankees.

Yankees starters posted a 3.51 ERA last season compared to the Giants 3.68 mark. However, San Francisco's starters outperformed New York in FIP (3.10 vs. 3.69) and xFIP (3.27 vs. 3.55). While the gaps shrink by removing Rodón, the Giants starters remain ahead without his production (3.35 FIP).

Once again, the Yankees have bigger names, but the numbers suggest this is closer to a toss-up. The comparison remains incomplete until the Giants add another starter, but even if they fail to re-sign Rodón or add another elite arm like Justin Verlander, the group still compares favorably to the Yankees.

Do the Yankees have a better farm system than the SF Giants?

These farm systems are viewed similarly by most outlets. Baseball America ranked the Giants the 18th best system in MLB right behind the Yankees at 17 while FanGraphs has the order flipped with the Giants 13th and Yankees 14th.

SF Giants prospect Kyle Harrison talks to his teammates at the 2022 MLB Futures Game / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Yankees infield prospect Anthony Volpe is probably the best prospect in either system, but Giants pitching prospect Kyle Harrison and shortstop prospect Marco Luciano are clearly the second and third-best. Both Harrison and Volpe are on track to make their big-league debuts at some point in 2023 and could immediately make an impact.

If I had to pick one system right now, I would lean toward the Giants, but I have to acknowledge the bias that comes from covering a system so closely. I also think Jasson Dominguez's 2022 season was supremely underrated as an overreaction to his early-career overhyping by New York media.

Ultimately, these organizations might be the two most comparable in MLB right now. It's not worth delineating prospects like Casey Schmitt, Everson Pereira, Luis Matos, Yoendrys Gómez, etc. because experts seem to have come to a consensus that it's a coin flip.

Do the Yankees have a better recent track record than the SF Giants?

The Yankees have made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons while the Giants have just one postseason berth. Yet, New York's 224-160 regular season record is only seven games better than San Francisco's 217-167 mark over that span. And I don't think anyone believes the Yankees would still have a better record if Judge was on the Giants instead.

Yankees fans have been calling the Giants the Dodgers' little brother on Twitter. It makes sense that Yankees fans have an affinity for the Dodgers. Like them, the Yankees have consistently spent more money and won more in the regular season than their biggest rival throughout the 21st century. And yet, it's the Red Sox and Giants that have two more championships than their most hated foes.

The Yankees fanbase is understandably on edge right now. Aaron Judge has been the face of the franchise since his rookie season in 2017, and there's a chance that he will be wearing a different uniform in 2023. But that fear is unsurprisingly leading to some disingenuous arguments on social media.

The SF Giants may have had a disappointing season in 2022, but the gap between them and the Yankees without Aaron Judge going forward is nonexistent. Both franchises need the Linden, California native, and that's why one of them will pay him more than $300 million, and the other fanbase is going to be disappointed this offseason.