Can San Francisco Giants Bet on Aging Superstar Pitcher for Career Bounce Back?

Can Justin Verlander rebound from a disappointing season with the Houston Astros?

Sep 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) motions to the crowd while walking to the dugout after a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Justin Verlander isn't ready to call it quits just yet.

The 41-year-old hurler (who turns 42 in February) will return for his 20th MLB season after signing a one-year, $15 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. He'll try to help replace another former Cy Young winner in Blake Snell, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this offseason.

The Giants are spending a good chunk of change to see if the future Hall of Famer has anything left in the tank. Verlander is coming off the worst season of his career after going 5-6 with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and -0.3 WAR in 17 starts for the Houston Astros last year.

Injuries contributed to Verlander's struggles last year, as he spent multiple stints on the injured list and was limited to just 90 1/3 innings over 17 starts.

As such, Verlander couldn't get in a groove and faded as the season wore on. After going 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA over his first eight starts, he went 2-4 with a 7.89 ERA over his final nine starts and was left off the Astros' postseason roster against his old team, the Detroit Tigers.

A quick peek under the hood of Justin Verlander: pic.twitter.com/8YhrScOZHB

— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) January 8, 2025

San Francisco is hopeful that Verlander can bounce back with better health in 2025. While the three-time Cy Young winner isn't what he used to be, he's only one year removed from going 13-8 with 3.5 WAR and a 3.22 ERA in 2023.

Verlander could also benefit from a move to the NL West, which has some of the largest and most pitching-friendly ballparks in baseball. That includes the San Diego Padres' Petco Park as well as his new home, Oracle Park.

According to Baseball Savant, Oracle Park ranked 27th out of 30 Major League stadiums for hitters last year, suppressing offense by 4% relative to league average. Meanwhile, Houston's Minute Maid Park was the sixth-best park for hitters, increasing offense by 3%.

If Verlander stays healthy and takes advantage of his new environment, his numbers could improve from his dismal 2024. However, he'll need to overcome his diminishing velocity and reduce his mistakes after posting one of the worst walk rates (2.7 BB/9) and home run rates (1.5 HR/9) of his career last year.