MLB Insider Projects San Francisco Giants Sign Corbin Burnes to Massive Deal

The former MLB executive wants the San Francisco Giants to sign Corbin Burnes to a long-term, high AAV deal, despite payroll limitations.

Oct 1, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

When reports indicated the San Francisco Giants would have a reduced payroll this winter, it was tough to imagine a scenario where they'd sign any of the top free agents available. However, it's unfair to count the Giants out just yet.

If there eventually becomes a deal out there that San Francisco is willing to hand out, anything is possible. There are times when players don't have the markets they're expecting to have, and the Giants know that better than anyone after signing Matt Chapman and Blake Snell late in the offseason last year. 

If that's the case again this winter, San Francisco should do whatever it takes to sign players. Perhaps giving them a one-year deal wouldn't be the best scenario, as they could find themselves in another position like they did with Snell, but there's still a glimpse of hope that things could go in their favor. 

Jim Bowden of The Athletic understands the payroll limitations but believes there's a scenario where they could sign Corbin Burnes. Bowden predicted the Giants would sign Burnes to a seven-year, $247 million deal.

He acknowledged the Giants' reported payroll limitations. But he also believes that new president of baseball operations Buster Posey knows that in order to win, the Giants' rotation needs an ace.

"Burnes, who is considered the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market, would more than make up for losing Blake Snell to the Dodgers," he wrote. "Pairing Burnes with Logan Webb atop the rotation would be a game-changer for the Giants."

While a reduced payroll wouldn't suggest the front office and ownership would hand out a near $250 million deal, there should be some context added to that. There's a scenario where they plan to spend heavily next winter, and if that's the case, what's giving Burnes a deal a year early?

It isn't like the right-hander has many peers around Major League Baseball, meaning if they plan to spend heavily next offseason, there's a chance a pitcher of his caliber won't be available.

The California native could prefer to play in Los Angeles if he returns home instead, but the fit in San Francisco makes sense.

Throwing the baseball at the level he does at Oracle Park could help him win a Cy Young or two, something he might consider in picking his next team.