San Francisco Giants Ace Only Lands Three-Year Contract in Latest Prediction

The San Francisco Giants left-hander might have a difficult time earning a long-term deal.

Sep 17, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; San Francisco Giants pitcher Blake Snell (7) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

When the San Francisco Giants signed Blake Snell late in the 2023-24 offseason, they were fortunate that the left-hander didn't have the market he was expected to.

The expectation is for that to change this winter, but there have been scenarios where players simply don't appeal to other clubs as much as expected.

Perhaps the same issue could happen for Snell, which would benefit the Giants.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic expects that to be the case, highlighting some of the reasons teams could be hesitant to sign him to a long-term deal.

Bowden predicted Snell to land a three-year deal for $105 million.

"Snell was looking for a long-term contract last offseason, but most executives were concerned about his track record, which includes making 30 or more starts only twice in a nine-year career and never pitching more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won a Cy Young Award both times. This year he dealt with injuries early but performed well after returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP over 20 starts. Snell will pitch at age 32 next year and I think his lack of durability — he’s pitched more than 130 innings in a season only once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract."

$35 million AAV wouldn't be a bad thing for Snell, but getting a three-year deal at 31 years old wouldn't play in his favor.

This is likely the last offseason in his career he should expect to get a long-term deal, which he and agent Scott Boras will be seeking.

But as Bowden alluded to, there are flaws in his game on the bump that might make teams worried.

When Snell is at his best, there isn't much of a debate about the type of pitcher he is. One could even argue that he's the best left-handed starter in the game.

His walk numbers are a major concern, and given that he doesn't eat up innings, those are two reasons why he might have to settle with a short-term, high AAV deal.

In the second half of the campaign, he was the best pitcher in the sport. If it weren't for an injury-riddled start to the year and a few rough outings before the All-Star break, he would've likely been in the Cy Young race.

That wasn't the case and teams could hold it against him because of that.