San Francisco Giants Predicted to Sign Corbin Burnes to Massive Contract

The San Francisco Giants were recently predicted to sign Corbin Burnes to a massive quarter of a billion dollar deal.

Oct 1, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The San Francisco Giants have been quite busy so far this offseason improving a team that has been mediocre the last few years. 

So far, the Buster Posey era in San Francisco has been a good one, as after years of not being able to land big free agents, the new president of baseball operations has already changed that narrative. 

This winter, the Giants were able to sign star shortstop Willy Adames to a big contract to come in and be the new face of their lineup. The talented shortstop gives San Francisco the middle of the order hitter that was the number one priority for them this offseason. 

Now, they have turned their attention to replacing Blake Snell, who left in free agency for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Currently, the Giants are one of the potential suitors for the top pitching prize in free agency, Corbin Burnes. 

Recently, Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report predicted that San Francisco would sign the talented right-hander to a massive eight-year, $250 million deal. 

That's an enormous commitment to a pitcher who is 30 years old. But, Rymer points out all the reasons to make the deal. Burnes is a Cy Young winner, has a 2.87 ERA in his past five seasons and only one pitcher — Zack Wheeler — has a better wins above replacement (WAR) than Burnes does since August of 2020.

The concern among some analysts has been a declining strikeout rate (8.4 per nine innings), his lowest since 2020. But, as Burnes has evolved into more of a ground-ball pitcher, perhaps the dropping strikeout rate is overblown, he writes.

“You could therefore make the case that he's already aging gracefully, which is to say nothing of how he's never been on the injured list with an arm or shoulder injury," Rymer wrote.

Without a doubt, Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few seasons, as he has pitched well for both the Milwaukee Brewers and the Baltimore Orioles. Last season with the Orioles, Burnes totaled a 15-9 record, 2.92 ERA, and had over 180 innings pitched once again. 

There has been some talk about his strikeout rate dipping, especially last year. However, as he ages as a pitcher, this could be seen as a positive thing, as his performance wasn’t impacted by his ability to strikeout hitters decreasing. 

With the contract likely to be a long one, the ability to get ground ball outs later in his career could keep him as a productive pitcher well into his late 30s. 

For the Giants, signing the best pitcher in free agency would be a big win for them this offseason, and a feather in the cap for Posey in his first winter in charge.