Guardians Star Given Questionable Prediction For 2025 Season

Can Jose Ramirez lead the Cleveland Guardians in home runs again?
Aug 31, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts after striking out during the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts after striking out during the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
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Jose Ramirez is one of the top players in MLB. MLB Network even named him the top third baseman in baseball heading into the 2025 season.

There are plenty of reasons why the Cleveland Guardians superstar has become one of the best players in the sport.

Ramirez is not only one of the best defenders at his position but also one of the best hitters. And for a player listed as five foot nine inches, J-Ram has also established himself as a premier power hitter in MLB.

That's why FanGraphs' recent ZiPS predictions for the 2025 season are slightly confusing. The well-known forecasting model predicts Ramirez to finish next season with just 29 home runs.

J-Ram was one home run shy of joining the exclusive 40/40 club (40 home runs and 40 stolen bases) during the 2024 season. Ramirez hit 39 homers last year, which set a new career-high.

Projecting him to hit ten fewer home runs just a season later would be a steep drop-off for one of the most consistent hitters in baseball.

Jose Ramirez hits a sacrifice fly.
Oct 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits an RBI sacrifice fly against the New York Yankees in the first inning during game four of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Along with the home run drop, the ZiPS projection also has Ramirez's slugging percentage regress from .537 in 2024 to .495 in 2025.

The last time Ramirez hit under 29 home runs was in 2023 (24 HR) when he was coming off off-season wrist surgery. It was clearly a slow start for the slugger that year, as he only had three home runs after the season's first month.

Yes, at some point, Father Time will catch up with Ramirez, who will turn 33 during the season. However, Cleveland's star has only gotten better throughout his career, even as he gets older.

The ZiPS projections are well-known because they are typically fairly accurate. However, let's hope this prediction is not true for the best reasons.


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