MLB Insider Reveals Cleveland Guardians Are Due For More Regression

The Cleveland Guardians are due for some more regression, but not in the way you think.

Aug 26, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan, left, watches as shortstop Tyler Freeman (2) can not make the catch on a ball hit by Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (not pictured) during the fourth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The term "regression" is an odd one. Typically, it has a negative connotation, so when you say the Cleveland Guardians are due for more regression, you'll probably think that means they will continue sliding over the last month of the regular season.

But regression is not always a negative term. Essentially, it means to revert to more of a norm and move away from extremes.

So, positive regression is a thing, and MLB insider Travis Sawchik believes that the struggling Guardians are due for some of it as the pennant race heats up into September.

During an appearance on 92.3 The Fan, Sawchik specifically cites Cleveland's batting average on balls in play (BABIP), noting that the Guardians' have posted a BABIP of just .246 over the last month. The league average is .290, which means that Cleveland has actually had some bad luck recently.

That's pretty ironic, given that a recent statistic displayed that the Guardians had actually been the luckiest team in baseball in 2024. But most of that came during the first couple of months of the season.

While Cleveland's BABIP could also partially be a result of soft contact, it almost certainly means that the Guardians have also experienced some misfortune. It signifies they have been hitting the ball directly at fielders, and ground balls that sometimes find holes have been getting swallowed up by gloves.

All things considered, Cleveland's lineup isn't that great. The Guardians rank 22nd in baseball in batting average, 19th in OPS and 12th in runs scored.

Jose Ramirez has been the only consistent source of offense for the club throughout the year, as Steven Kwan has cooled off considerably, and Josh Naylor has been streaky.

The Guardians are clinging to a one-game lead over the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central and will kick off a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night.