Guardians Must Avoid This Major Mistake In Free Agency

The Cleveland Guardians should avoid falling into this major trap in MLB free agency.

Aug 22, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the second inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Guardians are in serious need of starting pitching heading into MLB free agency. Everyone knows this, and it has led to some fairly screwy opinions.

Like, for example, some suggesting that the Guardians pursue Corbin Burnes.

Let's just get this out of the way: the chances of Cleveland actually signing Burnes are slim to none. The Guardians don't spend a ton of money, and Burnes is projected to land a deal worth well north of $200 million. Cleveland isn't doing that.

But let's just say the Guardians do decide to get ambitious for a change.

After all, Cleveland did just come within three wins of a World Series appearance, so perhaps the Guardians may be more willing to open their wallet this winter.

If Cleveland opts to start blowing some cash, it should not spend it on Burnes.

Look, I get it. Burnes is tantalizing. He has made four straight All-Star appearances and he posted a 2.92 ERA this past season. He won a Cy Young back in 2021.

But there are some red flags here.

First and foremost, Burnes is already 30 years old. It's entirely possible—if not likely—that his best days are already behind him, and he is probably going to get seven or eight years. The back end of that contract could be ugly.

Second, the Baltimore Orioles star has already shown signs of decline.

In his first two seasons as a full-time starter with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 and 2022, Burnes was a strikeout artist. He led the majors with 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings in the former year, and in the latter campaign, he tallied tallied 10.8 punchouts per nine frames.

Since then, however, Burnes' strikeout numbers have declined considerably.

The right-hander logged just 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2023, and this past season, that number dipped to 8.4. His velocity decreased in 2023, and while it did come back a bit in 2024, his strikeouts continued to fall.

Those are not good signs for a pitcher who has historically relied so heavily on fanning hitters. Yes, Burnes still managed to pitch very well with modest strikeout numbers this year, but his 3.55 FIP (and 3.81 in 2023) indicates that he may be overperforming.

Burnes also surrendered 37 barreled balls in 2024, the worst mark of his career.

Don't get it twisted: Burnes is still a fantastic pitcher, and he will absolutely bolster some team's rotation in 2025. But the Guardians shouldn't fall for the trap.

Cleveland would be better off adding a couple of pitchers with nice peripherals on cheaper deals in order to get the best bang for its buck.