Cleveland Guardians Should Pursue Risky Trade For This Two-Time All-Star Pitcher
The Cleveland Guardians are 45-26 and sit comfortably in first place in the AL Central, but it is abundantly clear that their roster needs some work between now and the July 30 MLB trade deadline.
The Guardians have multiple holes, but none is more glaring than their obvious need for more starting pitching.
Much has been made of the struggles of Cleveland's starting rotation, which has only made it through the sixth inning three times over the last 18 games entering Thursday's action (and only once through seven frames).
Yes, Tanner Bibee was thoroughly dominant in the Guardians' Wednesday night win over the Seattle Mariners, but outside of him and Ben Lively, the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster.
The good news is that Cleveland still has about five-and-a-half weeks to make some moves, and you have to think that adding another starting pitcher (or two) has to be at the top of its list.
There should be a handful of solid starters available over the next month and change, but one arm in particular that the Guardians should be scouting is New York Mets righty Luis Severino.
Severino obviously comes with a lot of risk. He has a very checkered injury history and has mustered 100 innings just once since 2019. However, he made back-to-back All-Star appearances with the New York Yankees in 2017 and 2018, and he has been impressive with the Mets thus far this season.
Through 14 starts in 2024, Severino has gone 4-2 with 3.52 ERA while allowing 70 hits over 84.1 innings of work. He hasn't been striking hitters out, tallying just 61 punchouts and logging a rather meager 1.97 K/BB ratio, but he has made up for it by inducing a lot of ground balls (50.6 percent).
Severino's low BABIP (.251) and abysmal strikeout rate may be some cause for concern, but on the flip side, his hard-hit percentage is just 28.5 percent, and he is getting soft contact 21.3 percent of the time. Those are actually some of the best marks of his career.
Plus, Severino's average fastball velocity is 95.9 mph this year, which is not far below his lifetime aveage of 96.7 mph. He isn't throwing the fastball as much, either, relying more on his newly-developed sinker (hence the ground balls).
The 30-year-old has reinvented himself in 2024. There was a time when Severino was a high-strikeout flamethrower, like when he accumulated 450 strikeouts between 2017 and 2018. However, with Severino's stuff fading over the last several years, he has had to learn how to pitch more precisely, which is huge going forward so long as he can stay healthy.
Plus, Severino is only on a one-year, $13 million deal, which makes him a rather attractive option for a club like the Guardians that is very conscious about its payroll.
Cleveland may even be able to convince the Mets to pick up some of Severino's salary, as New York has done that in the past (the Mets specifically did it with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander last summer).
Considering that only two of the Guardians currently boast sub-4 ERAs, Severino may end up being a rather sought-after (and realistic) candidate for Cleveland in the lead-up to the trade deadline.
Of course, this all hinges on whether or not the Mets—who are suddenly surging and are right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race—would be interested in selling at the end of July.
MATTHEW SCHMIDT