How Different is a Future with Lindor?

Francisco Lindor put a $120 million number on the Indians payroll, a $30 million increase from the current mark. Yet things with Lindor around look awfully similar to now.

The Cleveland Indians had already invited a lot of pressure on themselves to win in 2020, but now the burden is on them to win early this season as well.

As Francisco Lindor and his representatives 'set aside' negotiations for the season, , the July 31 trade deadline officially becomes a milestone for the organization, if not a hurdle.

Cleveland had a perfect reason for holding on to their superstar to begin 2020, despite his expected return depreciating like a new car driven off the lot. They have a 93-win team, and a chance to compete. With two years of Lindor remaining, they might as well try and compete with him, unless they were knocked off their feet by an offer.

That never happened, and now the front office knows when the next conversations will happen regarding a potential extension. Next winter.

If the Minnesota Twins are sitting above the American League Central with a cushion over Cleveland come mid-July, there would be no reason to wait. A team that cannot compete in 2020 with Lindor would need a financial overhaul to do so in 2021. Expecting that would be beyond foolish.

The argument now, both among Indians fans online, and between different comments from Lindor and Chris Antonetti, is whether or not the small-market club could compete with Lindor eating up a quarter of the payroll.

Lindor even suggested a proposed payroll number to Lloyd: $120 million. That figure is below where the team finished the season last year (north of $123 million, according to Cot's Contracts), and well below where they finished in 2018 and 2017 ($146 and $136 million, respectively).

Of course, the team was plenty competitive in 2016 when they made the World Series with a $100 million payroll. Money and success are not a 1:1 correlation, and small-market teams must survive by staying around the figure Lindor stated.

There is money, and it is doable. So what would a $120M iteration of this Indians team look like in 2021 and beyond?

Well, let us begin by extending Lindor. Using ZiPS, T.J. Zuppe , but for this article will be 10-years and $350 million, for a nice, round $35M per year figure.

The team currently sits at $90.64 million, according to Cot's, with Lindor making $17.5 million. Double that, and we're looking at $108 million, leaving a decent $12 million chunk to play with.

Current payroll: ~$108 million

With guaranteed salary increases owed to José Ramírez and Carlos Carrasco, we will also accept player options for Roberto Perez, Carlos Santana, and Brad Hand, adding another $6,441,666.

Current payroll: ~$115 million

Assuming Oliver Perez, Sandy Leon and Cesar Hernandez walk in free agency, that frees up about $12 million.

Current payroll: ~$103.32 million

With a hole at second base, and a spot to fill in the bullpen and backup catcher, ~$17 million remains. This is where things get dicey. In 2021, Mike Clevinger will hit his second year of arbitration, could eat up anywhere from $3-6 million, based on his performance this season.

Current payroll: ~$110 million

Delino DeShields will hit his final year of arbitration if he spends the entire season with Cleveland, while Tyler Naquin and Nick Wittgren will hit their second years, and Adam Cimber heads into his first. Reasonably, all four could be non-tendered, especially DeShields, who would likely see an inflated figure, as third-year arbitration players generally do.

For this exercise, we say Daniel Johnson and Jake Bauers will take those outfield spots for cheap, while we retain Cimber and Wittgren for an expected $3.5M.

Current payroll: ~$114.5 million

Things are now looking a bit tight, and decisions must be made.

Domingo Santana's services for 2020 would cost almost the entirety of the payroll, with a $5 million option. Unless he hits 30-40 dingers and is not an albatross otherwise, it looks like Bobby Bradley's time would come, all in the name of financial stability.

Who would play second base? With Hernandez off the books, it could be Ramírez, if Nolan Jones is ready to come up and play third. Otherwise, you are looking at filling an infield spot with a one-win free agent, or Tyler Freeman.

Perhaps the best use of that $5 million would be to tack it onto an extension of Clevinger, now entering his age 30 season. If his health does not show that he is worth extending into his mid-30's at an agreeable cost, that money could go to Shane Bieber, especially on a sweetheart deal before arbitration. Maybe just hold it for deadline dealings.

Overall, tough decisions would linger as they do in the present, but we are looking good so far.

Nine more years to go!

More relief is on its way in year two, as Hand and Carlos Santana hit the market, freeing up $27.5M. A little bit of that is off-set by Ramírez and Perez's player options that add a total of $3.1 million. Bieber, if not extended already, joins Bauers, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, and Greg Allen in arbitration for the first time, if still around. Clevinger's third go-around would add $6-8 million, while Wittgren and Cimber hit years three and two.

All of that, and you are down a key bullpen arm and a first baseman. Neither are completely irreplaceable, especially if James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase are as good as they are expected to be.

At this point, extending either Clevinger or Bieber becomes difficult while staying under that $120 million mark. The clock is ticking, and here we are again, looking at who to jettison. There is money, and there are prospects, but Carrasco is 34 and owed $25 million in 2022 and 23. The roster is losing value, and 25 percent of the payroll is on the books until 2031.

The funny thing is, with Lindor at $35 million per year on a $120 million budget, that leaves the team with $95 million and their shortstop. In other words, they have exactly what they are entering the 2020 season with, plus about $4.4 million.

Signing Lindor for 10 years does not mean he will have to hang around the entire decade. But with each passing year, the back end of that contract looks worse. With that, he becomes less tradeable.

As Ramírez and Carrasco age out of their team-friendly deals, and perhaps that money is reallocated to Clevinger and Bieber, the onus will still be on the front office to sign players to the same deals the former pair got. Not much will change.

So using Lindor's reasonable payroll number, as well as a fair offer for his services, the question then becomes, "Are you happy now?"

If the Indians can replicate a 93-win season with this roster, and this payroll, fans would gladly take more of the same. Contingent on how long Lindor remains a perennial star, the roster with him on it past 2021 will look a lot like it does right now.

Is that enough?