This Guardians Pitcher Should Not Be Trusted With Postseason Start

Guardians fans shouldn't consider this starting pitcher trustworthy for the postseason

Sep 2, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32) pitches during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The starting rotation has been an ongoing concern for the Cleveland Guardians this season. With the postseason just around the corner, fans must ask if Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams is ready for the moment.

Typically, starting rotations shrink to three or four pitchers in the postseason. For the majority of the year, the assumption has been Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams would fill two of those spots. But as the season winds down, confidence in Williams wanes.

It was an impressive 2023 campaign for the right-hander, pitching his way to a 3.29 ERA across 82 innings of work.

Williams hasn't pitched to the same level this year. His ERA sits at a 5.23 following Friday’s start. Statistically, Triston McKenzie was more effective in his 16 games with Cleveland before being sent down to Triple-A Columbus.

Williams' record of 3-9 may cause concern for some fans, but in his defense, the team has only averaged 2.14 RS/9 (Run Support per nine innings) while he's on the mound.

Fans practically ran McKenzie out of town, and rightfully so. The difference is that confidence remains high for starting Williams in the postseason. That cannot be the case.

Starting pitching is often a difference-maker in postseason baseball, and Williams hasn’t shown the consistency to have a positive impact. His effectiveness has only declined as the season has progressed. Since August, the right-hander has only made it through the fifth inning in four of his eight starts.

If the Guardians can hand their bullpen deep into games, it’s almost a guaranteed win with how dominant they’ve been. Through September 11th, MLB teams hold a win percentage of .859 when entering the seventh inning with a lead. The Guardians are 65-2 (.970) under those same circumstances. Williams hasn't reliably gotten them to that spot.

The organization should be more comfortable starting Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb (despite his inability to stay healthy), and probably even Ben Lively, in addition to Tanner Bibee this postseason.