Three Keys To Guardians Success Against Tigers' Ace Tarik Skubal

The Cleveland Guardians must execute these three objectives to find success against Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Oct 5, 2024; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas (8) celebrates with teammates after hitting a three-run home run against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning in game one of the ALDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Guardians may face their toughest matchup of the postseason when they take on likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal on Monday. While many teams have suffered against the lefty, there is a recipe to do damage against the Tigers’ ace.

Skubal leads the MLB in several stat categories, including wins with 18 and ERA among starters at 2.39. The 27-year-old will work quickly and rack up his strikeouts, another place he led the majors this year with 228.

It’s no simple task to get damage done on Skubal, but there are a few simple changes the Guardians can make to give themselves a better chance. 

Be Aggressive On The Basepaths

The Guardians had a lot of success off of Skubal, the only time they faced him this season. Just after the All-Star Break, the pitcher gave up a season-high 10 hits against the Guardians. The only problem was Cleveland only turned it into one run and lost the game, 8-2.

Hits are great, but the Guardians need to score runs to win. Being aggressive on the basepaths should allow the team to create runs.

Plus, Skubal has had his worst season holding runners. According to Baseball Savant, when base runners attempted steals to second base, he allowed career highs in distance gained on the pitcher’s first movement and distance gained at pitch release. Essentially, before the ball leaves Skubal’s hand, base runners are getting further on steal attempts than they ever have in his career. 

Swing Early In Counts

Against great pitchers, swinging the bat early typically gives you a better shot at reaching base. The recipe holds against Skubal. 

He’s done a great job to limit walks this year, issuing 35 in 31 starts. Combine that with his ridiculous strikeout numbers, and you dig yourself a deeper hole with almost every pitch you let go by. 

In addition, a lot of damage against Skubal has come early in counts this season. Of the 49 RBI tallied against the left-hander, 24 (49%) have come before the third pitch of the at-bat. 

Raise Skubal's Pitch Count

This key may seem contradictory to the second, but that’s not quite the case.

Yes, the Guardians should be aggressive early, but that doesn’t mean that when it fails, the batter is doomed, and they’re out on three pitches. 

The lineup needs to find ways to battle deep into counts when they don’t find early success. The unfortunate reality is that the best way to beat Skubal is to get him out of the game.

The Tigers' bullpen is no pushover, but it’s easier to hit off anyone other than Skubal this year.

If the Guardians find a way to execute all three of these keys, then they should be able to find success against Skubal and head to Detroit with a 2-0 lead over the Tigers in the ALDS.