Unearthing Guardians’ Attendance, Performance Correlation Over Past 30 Years

Is there a correlation between the Cleveland Guardians’ attendance and the team's success?

The Cleveland Guardians have been in Major League Baseball for decades, having been founded in 1901. With a rich history, the team has experienced its fair share of ups and downs, most glaringly without a World Series title in the last 75 years.

One intriguing aspect of the Guardians' journey is the relationship between attendance figures at Progressive Field and the team's performance on the field. Let's dive into the attendance/record correlation over the past three decades since the ballpark opened on April 4, 1994,  and try to shed some light on how fan support aligns with the club’s performance.

1990s: Winning, Postseasons, And 455

The 1990s were a defining era for the franchise, characterized by consistently competitive teams, and probably the one many still default to when referencing the “Glory Days.” In 1995 and 1997, the Guardians advanced to the World Series, with their success fueling high attendance figures and a renewed love for baseball in the city.

Following the ‘95 season, the club broke a single-season franchise attendance record, seeing 3,318,174 fans in the stands. This, of course, was amid the consecutive sellout streak, which began on June 12, 1995.

The team captured the AL Central division title in five consecutive seasons from 1995-1999, and of course won two pennants in '95 and '97, respectively. The team captivated the city, and the fans were there to back them up.

As a note, the Cleveland Cavaliers moved in next door in Gateway Plaza in October of 1994, where they've remained ever since. The Cleveland Browns were of course not playing from 1996-1998 until returning back to the lakefront in 1999.

2000s: Mixed Results And End Of An Era

After the excitement of the '90s, attendance began to fluctuate as the team started to taper. The 2000s brought mixed results in terms of performance for the team, marked with two division titles in 2001 and 2007, and that ‘01 season was the last the attendance would surpass the 3-million mark.

The consecutive sellout streak ended April 4, 2001, notching the famous 455 in a row — which still stands as third longest streak in Major League History.

The franchise saw attendance dip below the 2-million mark for the first time in 2003 (and 2004) when they went 68-94 (and 80-82), and although they didn’t make the playoffs in 2005, a record of 93-69 drew 2,013,763 people back out to the ballpark.

The 78-84 team hovered right below 2 million in 2006, and the ‘07 and ‘08 teams saw that number jump north of the mark for those seasons. Attendance once again dipped below that line and didn’t see an uptick for quite some time. It's also worth noting the economic recession that hit around this time meant fans had less disposable income to spend. 

2010s: Rebuilding And Retooling

The 2010s were marked by a period of rebuilding and a change in team identity. During this period, attendance fluctuated, often correlating with the team's performance.

With newly resigned Terry Francona coming in as skipper in 2013, the team made it to the Wild Card round his first season — in which the club had gone 92-70 and saw just 1.5 million in attendance. The next two seasons saw more of a decline as did the play, dropping to 1.4 million (85-77, no playoffs) and 1.3 million (81-80, no playoffs).

Finally, in 2016, the club put together a 94-67 record, and of course, made it to the World Series, climbing back up to 1,591,667 in attendance on the year.

In 2017, the 102-60 club that had the 22-game win streak saw 2,048,138 before losing in the ALDS. Next year’s attendance was similar for 91-71 team that also fell short in the ALDS. Despite winning 93 games in 2019, the team did not make the playoffs, and numbers dropped about 200,000 people.

Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis (22) is congratulated by manager Terry Francona after scoring in the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports / © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

2020s: A New Era And Rebranding

The early 2020s marked a new era for the franchise as the team ran into a swath of challenges both unique and not as much.

Attendance figures, however, were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic for not just the club but all of MLB. As the pandemic's impact waned, attendance numbers began to recover, albeit with fluctuating success on the field, but it took until the present day to see a total bounce back.

With the team rebranding as the Guardians prior to the 2022 season, many were curious if the attendance would dip. At the time, a roster with Shane Bieber and José Ramírez beheld as household names.

As fate would have it, the team rallied together and pulled off a 92-70 record, won the division, and escaped the Wild Card round before 1.2 million people. For reference, the previous season saw about 180,000 fewer fans, but there were still some CoVID restrictions in place at the start of the year.

In 2023, the Guardians' attendance shot up 41.5% from the previous year, bringing in over 1.8 million fans. In totality, baseball saw the attendance up 9.6%, the highest since 2017. The team introduced new ticket packages for fans that wanted standing-room only access on a monthly basis, which certainly may have helped. There were also a number of rule changes across the league that have made games faster and more fan-friendly.

The Attendance-Record Correlation

The correlation between attendance and the Guardians' performance seems pretty evident, but I wouldn't wager that's unique to just them. In the years when the team excelled and reached the postseason, attendance figures were substantially higher. Conversely, during rebuilding phases or periods of subpar performance, attendance numbers declined.

But, we know all baseball has seen fluctuating numbers, and with the new rule changes in place and ballparks adapting to fit the more modern fan, it seems interest is regaining its footing. Of course, there are some teams that are outliers and will always draw large crowds.

As the Guardians continue to adapt and evolve, this relationship will remain key. But what’s next? With the new renovations to Progressive Field, combined with consistent on-field success, the club could usher in a new era of Guardians baseball that both the franchise and its supporters can get behind.