When Could A Josh Naylor, Guardians Trade Actually Happen?

When the Cleveland Guardians could trade Josh Naylor is contingent on one thing out of their control.

Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor (22) watches his shot to right field for a double during the fifth inning of an MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field, Thursday, June 20, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio. / Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

Josh Naylor has been at the center of trade rumors all offseason. Heading into Winter Meetings, the Cleveland Guardians were even reportedly open to dealing him if the right package was there.

Numerous teams have been rumored to be interested in Naylor. However, that raises the question of when the Guardians could trade him if they head in that direction.

Let's start with this: the Guardians don't have to trade Naylor, which could have an affect on when a potential trade happens.

Yes, he's heading into his final season of team control. However, Naylor was an All-Star in 2024 and Cleveland's second-best hitter all season.

So, if the Guardians were going to trade Naylor, it'd be when his value is at its highest. There's been nothing to suggest that Naylor's trade value has increased over the last few weeks.

Something outside Cleveland's control would likely have to happen for that to occur. For example, movement on the free agent market forces an opposing team to shift focus to making a trade.

Jun 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor (22) rounds the bases after hitting his second home run of the game during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Numerous free-agent first basemen are currently still available, including Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt.

A team looking to upgrade at that position would be wise to try to sign those players first before pursuing a trade for Naylor or anyone else.

Once this position group comes off the board, that's when Naylor's value could increase as teams get desperate to make sure they add an offensive-minded first baseman before Spring Training begins.  

The tricky part is when exactly this happens is still a mystery.

Perhaps this group could start to sign with teams in the coming days. Maybe it won't be for a few weeks. There's a good chance it's not until the New Year that Alonso, Walker, Santana, or Goldschmidt find new homes.

Until the free agents start signing, it feels like a Naylor trade is unlikely, if it happens at all.