Hot Stove Takes: Cubs Are NL Central Favorites After Acquiring Kyle Tucker

Chicago is looking to open its next World Series window, while the Astros appear ready to wave the white flag on theirs.

Tucker’s departure could signal the end of the Astros’ World Series window. / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

This piece is part of our Hot Stove Takes series, where staff members give quick reactions to the latest notable MLB transactions. Below are our thoughts on the Cubs trading for Astros star outfielder Kyle Tucker.

Tom Verducci: The Chicago Cubs just became the early favorites in the up-for-grabs NL Central with their smart addition of outfielder Kyle Tucker and the Milwaukee Brewers’ trade of closer Devin Williams two weeks after the loss of free agent shortstop Willy Adames.

Other than Juan Soto, Tucker is the biggest impact bat who will change teams this winter. Over the past four seasons Tucker (21.2 WAR, .527 SLG, 145 OPS+) has been a younger version of Mookie Betts (23.8, .527, 145) and Corey Seager (19.2, .524, 143) at the plate. Tucker is one of only four players in that time to average 25 homers and 20 steals (José Ramírez, Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor are the others). On a team loaded with complementary players, Tucker was a must-have addition if Chicago was serious about the postseason.

So why would the Houston Astros trade him? Tucker is a free agent after next season and will be looking at a contract worth $30 to $35 million a year over eight to 10 years. The Astros’ plans to extend their competitive window have been blown up by the bull market this winter. Their $156 million offer to Alex Bregman became moot with the $182 million deal the Giants gave Adames. Their hopes of extending Framber Valdez were dashed by the $210 million the Yankees gave Max Fried. And the idea that they might keep Tucker, a free agent to be, after this year was thwarted by the $765 million the Mets gave Soto.

It was time to act. After Houston lost Carlos Correa, George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander to free agency with nothing but draft picks in return, it was wise to get major league ready talent for Tucker. Help is immediate with Isaac Paredes (made for the Crawford Boxes more than Wrigley, which played very big last season) and Hayden Wesneski (good arm, but his pitch mix needs work; no one threw a sweeper more often than Wesneski, 41%, among those with a negative run value for the pitch). They can help the Astros contend this year and corner infield prospect Cam Smith is not far off from being a major league bat.

The Cubs could afford to move all three—even for one year of Tucker, with no guarantee he stays beyond this year—because the division is there for the taking and they still can explore trading Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki.

Chicago has defined mediocrity for too long. In full seasons since 2019, its win totals have been 84, 71, 74, 83, 83. The trade for Tucker is a bold move by the Cubs, but an even smarter one given the player and their place in a big market.

Stephanie Apstein: Since the beginning of 2020, only seven players have been more valuable than Kyle Tucker, according to FanGraphs, and those guys will make an average of $34 million next year. MLB Trade Rumors, which tends to do a good job with this sort of thing, projects Tucker to make $15.8 million in arbitration. Even if you have to give up Isaac Paredes, even if you only have Tucker for one season, even if you're still not done adding—this is a steal. If Tucker produces the way he has, he could clear $300 million in free agency next season, so this is the year for the Chicago Cubs.

It's as good a year as any: The St. Louis Cardinals are rebuilding, the Brewers just traded closer Devin Williams rather than paying him, and the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds seem at least a year away. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is also in the final season of his five-year deal, and the Cubs haven't won a playoff game since 2017, the last year they boasted a player with an OPS+ above 140. Tucker's average over the past five years was 143.

Nick Selbe: Adding Tucker alone doesn't make the Cubs a National League pennant contender. The rotation could use help, and third base now has a vacancy (though the team could look in-house and fill it with top prospect Matt Shaw). More moves are still to come, but after years of scuffling their feet, the Cubs appear to be finally back to operating like a big-market team.

Tucker is a game-changer for the Cubs, who, five years removed from their last playoff appearance and eight since their last playoff win, are now officially Going For It. This is exactly the type of player Chicago needs—an elite hitter with power, speed and on-base skills few can match, along with plus defense and base running—and one that is so difficult to acquire.

The cost was steep: three years of control for Isaac Paredes, 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith and pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and the cost to keep Tucker (2025 free agent) beyond this season will likely be north of $300 million. Paredes didn't hit well after being traded from Tampa Bay to Chicago last season, but he has a 123 wRC+ over the past three years and can man three infield spots, so the Cubs will miss his versatility. A trade of Cody Bellinger could be the next domino to fall, as Chicago reconfigures its outfield to fit around Tucker (and likely tries to shed as much of Bellinger's salary as possible).

More MLB on Sports Illustrated

feed