SI:AM | What We Know About Juan Soto’s Free Agency as Decision Looms

The star outfielder could reportedly pick a team by the end of the week.

Soto (right) is about to be a very rich man. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m ready for Juan Soto to sign so the MLB offseason can really begin.

In today’s SI:AM:

💰 Soto closer to a decision
🐘 Alabama still alive
🦅 Sirianni on Eagles’ run

The clock is ticking

The news that every baseball fan has been waiting for may come down very soon.

Superstar outfielder Juan Soto could reach a decision on his free agency by the end of this week, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported Tuesday night. The reason for the timing is that MLB’s annual winter meetings begin Sunday in Dallas and run through Dec. 12. Soto is “widely expected” to sign with a team before the end of the meetings and “could do so” before baseball decision makers arrive this weekend, Gonzalez reports.

Soto’s future is the biggest story in baseball this offseason and one of the most significant free agencies in the history of the sport. With that in mind, here’s what we know about the race to sign him.

Who are the contenders?

There are five teams known to be pursuing Soto: the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.

No team on that list should come as a real surprise. The Yankees wouldn’t have paid a hefty price to trade for Soto last winter if they weren’t interested in re-signing him. The Mets, thanks to billionaire owner Steve Cohen, have nearly endless financial resources. The same can be said for the Dodgers, even though they signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million contract last year. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are also deep-pocketed, large-market teams. Toronto signaled a willingness to pay top dollar on the free-agent market last season when it pursued Ohtani and is rumored to be prepared to outbid any Soto offer. Boston, on the other hand, has cut payroll in recent years, ranking 12th in Opening Day payroll in 2024 and has been outside the top five every year since ’21. Before then, the last time the Red Sox didn’t have one of the five highest Opening Day payrolls was 2003, according to Baseball Prospectus. Now they could be ready to spend again.

What will the contract look like?

According to The Athletic, all five teams in the running to sign Soto have offered at least $600 million, and the contract will likely be for at least 12 years. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Soto is seeking a 15-year deal.

The headline dollar amount of Soto’s contract may not exceed the $700 million that Ohtani got last year, but it still could set a record. How? The vast majority of Ohtani’s salary is deferred compensation that will be paid out after the term of the contract. He is being paid $2 million in salary per year over the course of the 10-year deal and will get $68 million per year for 10 years after the contract expires. For that reason, MLB assessed the present-day value of Ohtani’s contract as $460 million, lowering the luxury tax number the Dodgers were forced to pay.

Even if Soto’s contract includes some deferred money, it won’t be as much as the unprecedented deferrals Ohtani’s deal included. That means Soto is poised to set a record for the highest present-day value of any contract in North American sports history.

What makes Soto worthy of a record-breaking deal?

Those who don’t follow baseball might be surprised to hear that anyone could rival the payday Ohtani earned. After all, he’s an elite hitter and pitcher. How could anyone else come close to matching that value?

It’s a fair question, and the answer might be that Soto is the only player who could come close to matching Ohtani. The biggest reason that multiple teams won’t blink at paying Soto roughly $50 million per year over the next decade-plus is that he’s remarkably young for a free agent. He just turned 26 in late October. (Ohtani, by comparison, turned 30 in July.) A team could sign him to a 13-year contract and he wouldn’t turn 40 until during the World Series of the deal’s final year.

It’s rare for a player to hit free agency while still playing at their peak, and especially so for a player as excellent as Soto. He has been hailed as one of the best hitters the game has ever seen almost since the time he debuted as a 19-year-old. He ranks third among active players in career slugging percentage, behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. Over the past four seasons, he has accumulated 541 walks, 134 more than any other player in the majors over that span (Judge has 407). And he might be getting better—especially as a power hitter. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a career-best 41 home runs.

Freeman (5) is the subject of today’s SI Digital Cover. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Today’s Digital Cover is Tom Verducci’s reflection on the best thing he saw in 2024: Freddie Freeman’s remarkable postseason to lead the Dodgers to the World Series.

• Surprise, surprise. Alabama has backed its way into College Football Playoff position yet again. Pat Forde wrote about how the penultimate rankings once again favor the SEC over the ACC.

• Here’s how CFP chairman Warde Manuel explained the decision to rank the Tide over Miami.

• Albert Breer spoke with Nick Sirianni about the Eagles’ current winning streak after a rocky start put the coach on the hot seat.

• Gilberto Manzano took stock of the race for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

• Chris Mannix’s NBA mailbag leads with an analysis of how LeBron James has declined this season.

• Here are Michael Fabiano’s weekly fantasy football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em recommendations for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

• Michigan fired its offensive coordinator after ranking 112th in the nation in scoring this year. (Although it did score three more points than Ohio State last weekend.)

The top five …

… things I saw last night:

5. 52-year-old Shaquille O’Neal’s dunk on Inside the NBA.
4. Karl-Anthony Towns’s unique post move to fool a defender. He briefly let up to complain to the ref about a no-call, lulling Moritz Wagner into a false sense of security before beating him with a turnaround jumper.
3. Kevin Durant’s crossover that left Victor Wembanyama in the dust. (Durant later left the game with an ankle sprain and did not return.)
2. Artturi Lehkonen’s game-winning goal for the Avalanche after they fell behind 4–0 against the Sabres.
1. Flames fans chanting “Johnny Hockey” in the final minute of their game against the Blue Jackets as a tribute to the late Johnny Gaudreau.