Analysis: 10 Low-Cost Starting Pitchers Mariners Could Target at Deadline
It is more likely than not Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto elects to trade for a low-cost pitcher on a bad team, similar to last year's acquisition of Tyler Anderson from the Pirates for catching prospect Carter Bins.
This is not saying it is impossible for Dipoto to trade for Reds pitchers Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, Oakland A's starter Frankie Montas or even San Francisco Giants ace Carlos Rodón, but such a venture will be expensive. There are better teams than Seattle who are deeper into their windows of contention and would likely offer more premium talent for those players, including the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets.
The Mariners would theoretically have to outbid all of those teams if they wanted one of the top available arms on the trade block; and frankly, it's hard to see them pulling the trigger on a deal like that this season.
Because the team is riding the high of a 13-game win streak, it is understandable why many fans are clamoring for a big move to the roster. But if Seattle really views this year as their first year of competing for the playoffs, it may not make sense for Dipoto and company to put all of their chips in this early into their contention window. This team, while playoff-caliber, is not currently a World Series contender and likely won't be even it does have a splashy deadline.
If the Mariners share this perspective, it's unlikely any of their top three prospects will be on the move this summer. And even if they do swing such a deal, they should look into acquiring another starting pitcher regardless. But for now, fans should have their expectations lowered for an arm like any of the 10 below:
RHP Brad Keller, Royals
Controlled through 2023, Keller is a league-average contact manager with low strikeouts and average walk rates. He does not induce a lot of swings and misses and is a No. 5 starter with minimal upside, but he can cover innings and would be a cheap acquisition overall. This year, he has posted a 3.96 ERA to go with a 4.14 xFIP. The ceiling here is very low, but this would be a similar acquisition to the Anderson trade last season.
RHP Zack Greinke, Royals
The Mariners could likely absorb the remainder of Greinke's one-year, $13 million deal he signed this offseason in exchange for a lower acquisition cost. While the veteran righty is not the same pitcher he was a decade ago, he is a Dipoto favorite. He currently has a 4.52 ERA with one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball at 12.5 percent, but he barely walks anyone (4.5 percent walk rate) and limits barrels to an average clip. With a few adjustments, he could return to the contact-managing, ground ball machine he has been the past few years.
RHP Paul Blackburn, Athletics
Blackburn, a former Mariners prospect, is enjoying a resurgence this year, but with the A's being non-competitive and at the beginning of their rebuild, he is expendable. He has three years of club control remaining on his deal, which could make him more expensive than some of the other names on this list. But given his limited track record, it's possible he'll come at the cost of a top-20 organizational prospect or two. Blackburn has a 3.62 ERA, limits barrels and does not walk or strike out a lot of batters.
RHP Aaron Civale, Guardians
Civale is controlled through 2026 and while Cleveland may not be interested in trading away a young, controllable pitcher (especially if they view themselves as contenders), he has struggled this year with a 6.17 ERA and has surrendered a ton of hard contact. However, he has an average strikeout rate and an above-average walk rate to pair with an elite repertoire in terms of movement. His spin rates are some of the best in baseball as well. If the Mariners think they can fix Civale so his stuff matches his results, this could be a sneaky good move.
RHP Tyler Wells, Orioles
Wells might be too good and controllable for the Mariners to acquire him, and it also doesn't help he's on a team chasing the playoffs. While Wells struggles to strike out batters, he is really good at everything else. He gets a lot of value from his fastball and secondary offerings to help cultivate his 3.28 ERA this year. He is an above-average contact manager and does not walk batters. If he were available, he might be the most expensive pitcher on this list.
LHP Trevor Rogers, Marlins
Rogers is broken. He has fallen from a promising Cy Young contender last year to a 5.42 ERA pitcher. The peripherals are concerning, as his strikeouts are down and walks are up. He is not giving up a lot of hard contact, but he's allowing a ton of guys to reach base right now and has had one quality start all season. While the Marlins are probably smart enough to not sell low on a controllable arm who has flashed ace potential, it's possible they could bite at the right deal. The Mariners should consider being aggressive in asking about him if they think they know how to help him regain form, as he is only 24 years old.
RHP Elieser Hernández, Marlins
Another young Marlins pitcher, Hernández has been struggling mightily with a 6.23 ERA this season. The 27-year old does have a track record of success, but he has struggled with inducing whiffs. While he is still controlling his walks well, he cannot get anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. Home runs have also been an issue for him, though a potential move to T-Mobile Park could help him keep the ball in the yard. That said, he will only be acquired by the Mariners if they think they can fix him quickly. Otherwise, he's likely not the type of arm a playoff contending team would want to trust down the stretch.
RHP JT Brubaker, Pirates
Although he's essentially average at everything right now, Brubaker carries some serious potential and shouldn't cost the Mariners an arm and a leg to acquire despite being controlled through 2026. He's currently sporting a 4.02 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate, though he does tend to walk more batters than a team would like. But he limits hard contact to keep the damage to a minimum. Right now, Brubaker is likely a No. 4 who, at times, can perform like a No. 3, though his ceiling is a little bit higher than that of Chris Flexen. Regardless, he is a good, cheap arm to have down the stretch.
LHP Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks
The four-time All-Star and three-time World Series champion has been experiencing a lot of positive results this year with his 3.65 ERA, but he has been struggling a lot more than his ERA would suggest, with poor contact management, poor strikeout rates and poor stuff. That being said, Bumgarner is an innings eater who should be good at avoiding walks, which is something Seattle probably needs down the stretch if George Kirby and/or Logan Gilbert need rest or there is an injury within the rotation. Return wise, he should come relatively cheap, thanks to the $47.2 million in remaining salary he's owed for the next two-and-a-half years, and could be a piece of a bigger deal between Seattle and Arizona.
RHP Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks
Another Diamondbacks arm, Kelly has been a popular trade target for a few years now. With a 3.36 ERA, he has been good at limiting hard contact. He does not have a great strikeout-to-walk percentage, but he is a cheap veteran who should be easy for Seattle to acquire. He can give the Mariners innings as a rental option and does not give up a lot of home runs.
