Analysis: Mariners Did Not Have Ammunition For Juan Soto Acquisition
On August 2, the final day of the MLB trade deadline, the Padres acquired 23-year old superstar outfielder Juan Soto and first baseman Josh Bell from the Nationals in exchange for a massive return: shortstop C.J. Abrams, left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, first baseman Luke Voit, outfielder Robert Hassell III, outfielder James Wood and future top-100 prospect RHP Jarlin Susana.
While trading away one of the top players in MLB away from your team is embarrassing and undesirable, I thought the return for Soto was reasonable. Upon dissecting the deal, it became clear the Mariners did not have the capital to make an equivalent trade offer, even before their deal for right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, which sent top prospects Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, plus right-handed pitching prospects Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore, to the Reds.
There are a lot of factors at play here, and before we can understand how Seattle could not match the offer, we have to realize what San Diego was giving up.
Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in all of baseball going into the season. Some professional evaluators had him ranked ahead of Mariners superstar outfielder Julio Rodríguez. Abrams, however, has struggled this year in limited at-bats to the tune of a 75 wRC+ and .232/.285/.320 slash line in 139 plate appearances.
While these struggles are disappointing, his strikeout rate is below 20 percent and his sprint speeds are some of the best in baseball. There is confidence he will begin producing better results, and as a long-term shortstop with elite versatility and athleticism, his value remains high.
The Mariners do not have a player of Abrams' caliber, at his position, who is also ready to perform in the major leagues.
Gore is probably the third-most valuable player in this deal and is comparable to either Mariners starter George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, although he probably has a higher ceiling and is younger than both. The 23-year old potential frontline ace had a 1.50 ERA with a ton of strikeouts and whiffs in his first eight starts at the MLB level, but since then he has struggled with an 11.05 ERA in his last five starts before being placed on the injured list.
It is possible that some of Gore's recent struggles can be accredited to his elbow injury, as his control worsened and his velocity dropped. Still, the young arm might be valued higher than a Kirby or Gilbert.
It is worth remembering that even though prospects may be comparable on public prospect rankings, certain teams might not place the same value on them. The Nationals may view Kirby and Gilbert as middle-of-the-rotation starters with lower upside than Gore.
The wild-card here is Wood, who is soaring up public prospect rankings. Wood has been putting up phenomenal numbers in the lower minors since being drafted in the first round of last year's draft by the Padres.
In the California League, the 19-year old has showcased sensational power, plate discipline, contact rates and athletics. He has stolen 15 bases already this year to go with 10 home runs. There is an outside shot of a 20-20 season line for Wood.
There are plenty of scouting executives who believes James Wood is a Top 10 prospect in the sport. Public Top 30 boards don't hold as much value as you think.
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) August 2, 2022
Wood is regarded as a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, San Diego potentially traded three players so far that can be regarded with at least similar value to three top-20 prospects, and Hassell is probably the fourth.
Ranked No. 21 on MLB Pipeline, Hassell is another former first-round pick who has flourished in the Padres' player development system. Drawing some comparisons to a young Jarred Kelenic, Hassell could be a top-10 prospect in baseball very soon. Not to mention, he has been dominating High-A ball and could be up in the majors within the next two years.
The Padres gave up four players so far that have the value of a top-20 prospect in exchange for Soto and Bell, and that is only some of the overall package.
Voit and Susana probably cover the Josh Bell portion of the deal. Voit is a first baseman who is controlled through 2025 and could potentially be flipped for even more quality prospect capital if he reaches his full potential. He posted a 109 wRC+ for the Padres this year and still has not fully tapped into his plus raw power.
Susana, the top international pitcher signed this past window, has drawn rave reviews for his stuff and elite velocity as a teenager in the Arizona Complex League. He gets a lot of strikeouts by overpowering with the fastball and inducing plenty of whiffs with his quality slider. While he is a long-term project, Susana could jump into the top-100 prospects if he performs up to his raw talent when he pitches in the minor leagues next year.
While Gore, Voit and Abrams are all controllable major league pieces with quality upside, Hassell should be coming up right behind them. Wood and Susana are both several years away, but everyone involved in this deal presents tremendous upside and value.
It goes without saying that Seattle did not have any prospects available with the upside of Gore, Abrams, Hassell or even Wood. I firmly believe that if Marte was in this package, he would be the fourth or fifth-best asset going to the Nationals.
Marte has ranked anywhere from the mid-teens to the late-30s in public prospect rankings, and while he was performing well the past month, he really struggled the first two months of the year as a 20-year old in High-A ball. It is very possible the Nationals were lower on Marte than public rankings, especially since most of those rankings that are higher on Marte continue to view him as a potential long-term shortstop, which he's not.
If Marte were to be viewed as a long-term third baseman or corner outfielder, which is his most likely destination, his value would take an extreme hit. There are question marks about Marte's hit tool, and if he is to play in the corner somewhere, there is a lot of pressure on the bat to perform.
If your top prospect cannot even compete with the top-four guys dealt in the Padres' package, you have no chance of matching their offer for Juan Soto.
It is quite possible—likely, even—Seattle would have had to include both Gilbert and Kirby if it wanted to even be in the conversation of acquiring Soto, in which case Gore potentially cancels one of them out if the offers were weighed against each other.
The Mariners could offer more bulk, but at some point, the frontline talent becomes difficult to overcome.
