Analysis: Mariners Dodged Several Bullets in Free Agency Market For Hitters
Last winter, many fans were clamoring for the Mariners to add a few more offensive pieces to bolster a lineup that struggled to produce with any sense of regularity in 2021.
Some of the targets, of course, included up-the-middle infielders and third basemen to supplement the retirement of Kyle Seager. The Mariners were connected to several free agents and players on the trade block, including Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, Seiya Suzuki, Javier Báez, Chris Taylor and Matt Chapman.
Looking at things now, Seattle made a good decision not to commit significant assets to some of these players.
Javier Báez | Kris Bryant | Matt Chapman | Marcus Semien | Trevor Story | Seiya Suzuki | Chris Taylor | Eugenio Suarez | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
wRC+ | 79 | 125 | 121 | 97 | 93 | 101 | 101 | 121 |
fWAR | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 |
Contract | 6 yr, $23.3m AAV | 7 yr, $26m AAV | 2 yr, $12.5m AAV | 7 yr, $25m AAV | 6 yr, $23.3m AAV | 5 yr, $85m AAV | 4 yr, $15m AAV | 3 yr, $11m AAV |
Games Missed | 15 | 69 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 39 | 31 | 1 |
While Chapman has very similar numbers to current Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suárez, one could make the argument they would have rather had Suárez due to his lower cost of acquisition, $11 million annual salary through 2024 and outstanding clubhouse leadership.
On top of the team-friendly deal, Suárez has a club option for 2025 for $15 million. The Blue Jays had to give up 2021 first-round pick Gunnar Hoglund and fellow top-150 prospect Kevin Smith as part of a four-player package for Chapman. Seattle was able to give a similarly priced package to Cincinnati in a trade that netted the club a perceived headliner in Jesse Winker, with Suárez as a throw-in contract dump.
Seattle's process here was simply better than Toronto's, and the two teams have received very similar value of their respective third basemen.
There was also a ton of reported interest from the Mariners in Bryant, who has missed a lot of time in the first year of his mega-deal with the Rockies. His lack of availability immediately disqualifies him in comparison to Suárez, and the production when he has been healthy has been slightly worse (and he cannot even play on the infield when healthy).
Semien has been a league-average bat after getting MVP votes with Toronto in 2021. Texas paid him accordingly, and while he has been an iron man, he is turning 32 in September and this contract is probably not going to age well given his offensive regression. While Semien has not been horrible, he has not really met expectations and is having a season comparable to Seattle shortstop J.P. Crawford.
Báez is still a talented player, but he has struggled in Detroit with its inept coaching and organizational philosophies. Every player on that team has seen their bat paths become flatter and they are one of the worst offenses in the league as a result. The offensive profile looks bad for Báez, and that contract looks even worse long-term than I expected at the time of the signing. However, while the athleticism and defense are still there, Seattle is lucky to have avoided any long-term commitment to Báez.
Despite a hot start to the year, Suzuki has not lived up to his preseason hype or his contract. While he is in his first year transitioning from professional baseball in Japan, the rookie's strikeout rates have been bad and his corner outfield defense has been poor. He has been a league-average bat, but his lack of positional versatility does not make him valuable, especially when corner outfield is a spot many teams try to make up in offense with above-average hitters. His lack of availability has been disappointing as well.
Story has been very underwhelming when he plays any team except Seattle. He is tracking for a below-average 93 wRC+ and has been injured. His strikeout rate has plummeted while the defense and speed have carried his profile. Dylan Moore has been significantly more productive than Story at the plate this year. Boston could be on the hook for a long-term disappointing contract.
Taylor has been injured for most of this year, but when healthy he has essentially been a worse version of what Dylan Moore or Sam Haggerty have given Seattle this year. His contract is not as bad, and his lineup protection has helped him maintain league-average offensive production while offering defensive versatility. His contract is not too bad, but his production seems replaceable at cheaper costs.
While it is a bit of a fallacy to pretend a player would perform the exact same as they have in a different lineup against different teams at different times in different stadiums, using a lens of ceteris paribus allows one to argue that Seattle dodged several bullets last winter.
