Analysis: Recapping Mariners' 2022 Draft Class
While there is no such thing as a good or bad draft class, it is always exciting to see the raw talent the Mariners acquire through the amateur draft.
Seattle got a lot of interesting players who present opportunities for its player development program to help mature and develop before eventually debuting with a club down the line. Since all of these players are years away from becoming consistent contributors in the major leagues, a lot of their success rides on the Mariners' coaches and biomechanists to help them reach their ultimate ceiling.
It is worth remembering that an elite draft class is viewed as one that can pump out maybe six to eight major leaguers. The Mariners selected four high-schoolers in their first nine picks, continuing their trends from 2021 of going for high-upside preps early. The class breakdown looks as such: nine right-handed pitchers, two left-handed pitchers, four middle infielders, two corner infielders, two outfielders and one catcher.
Round 1, Pick No. 21: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny (PA) - $3,300,000 (Slot: $3,292,900)
The six-foot, 180-pound Young was not previously covered on our website, but given Seattle's reported interest in other shortstop prospects like Jett Williams and Zach Neto, this selection makes sense. Young has a swing very similar to Adam Frazier and, like Frazier, his best tool is his hit. At Perfect Game showcases, Young demonstrated elite athleticism, exit velocities and arm strength. He should be able to stick at nearly any defensive position. In high school, he had low chase rates, low whiff rates and very rarely struck out. The question mark for Young will be his game power, but his plus bat speed and torque suggest there is a lot to unlock here. He could easily add strength to his lower body as well. Young has one of the highest floors of any prep player taken in this class, and Seattle was able to take him around slot value.
Round 2, Pick No. 58: 1B/3B Tyler Locklear, VCU - $1,276,500 (Slot: $1,276,500)
Locklear is a divisive player in the MLB draft community, but I really liked this pick. There is no denying Locklear's ability to hit for power and get on base, but he might be without a defensive position. Locklear has an elite max exit velocity of 113.8 MPH and has 70-grade raw power. Even in the wooden bat Cape Cod League, Locklear led the league in home runs. His bat speed is truly elite while his contact and chase skills have improved to plus, as Locklear leads all of college baseball in wOBA over the past two seasons. While he is listed as a third baseman, it is likely that Locklear moves to first base long-term. He has a similar profile to Tigers infielder Spencer Torkelson in that he is not a great defensive athlete, but the bat should carry his profile.
Competitive Balance Round B, Pick No. 74: RHP Walter Ford, Pace (FL) - $1,250,000 (Slot: $887,400)
Ford, nicknamed the "Vanilla Missile," is a 2023 reclassified 17-year old with perhaps the greatest upside of any Mariners pick in this draft. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, Ford has a lot of projection. While he sits 94-96 MPH in games, there is reason to believe he could add velocity as he adds good weight and strength to his frame. Ford has very fluid, repeatable mechanics, and some draft outlets believe he could develop to touch triple digits as a starter. Ford's delivery, according to several biomechanists, is one of the best deliveries in the class in terms of arm speed and torso rotation. The wicked slider and 12-6 curveball are his best offspeed offerings, but he has a promising changeup and could potentially develop more pitches as he progresses through the Mariners' system. If he can add consistent velocity to his slider, it is a 70-grade putaway pitch. Ford is an exceptional athlete with a great feel for spin, as his fastball spin rates are some of the best in the draft. Ford could be one of the biggest steals in the draft when all is said and done, and he has already embraced being a Mariner on Twitter:
It’s time to get started @Mariners thank you for this opportunity! Let’s Go #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/LKMmDpwnlj
— Walter Ford (@Vanilla_Missile) July 18, 2022
Round 4, Pick No. 126: RHP Ashton "A.J." Izzi, Oswego East (IL) - $1,100,000 (Slot: $474,900)
At 6-foot-3 and 165 pounds, Izzi has a very projectable frame with a ton of upside. With marginal increases to his velocity, Izzi could wind up being a phenomenal pick. My second favorite player taken by Seattle in this class, Izzi sits in the low-90s as a starter with a great low-80s slider that he has demonstrated a good feel for. His changeup complements his fastball well, but he is still learning to throw it with command. Izzi's arm speed and athleticism are above-average. Izzi is a project, but Seattle is very good at developing these types of arms. With Michael Morales, Walter Ford and Izzi, Seattle has a lot of talented young arms coming up through the system.
Round 5, Pick No. 156: LHP Reid VanScoter, Coastal Carolina - $20,000 (Slot: $353,900)
VanScoter is an under-slot signee who helped Seattle save money for its talented prep arms, but he is intriguing in his own right. He sits 88-92 MPH in-game, but there is potential for his velocity to play up should Seattle fast-track him through the system as a relief option given he is almost 24 years old already. His curveball is his best pitch, but he also throws a changeup and slider. VanScoter's profile suggests he is a contact manager, but he did win the Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year with a 3.65 ERA. He does not walk too many people and does what Seattle has preached: control the zone.
Round 6, Pick No. 186: SS Josh Hood, NC State - $250,000 (Slot: $272,800)
Hood is a smart kid, having played his first two years of collegiate baseball in the Ivy League at Pennslyvania. He was even the Ivy League rookie of the year but transferred to NC State after UPenn canceled most of its 2020 season and all of its 2021 season. This year at NC State, Hood slashed .268/.350/.498 while playing great defense. MLB Pipeline suggests that Hood has 20+ home run potential after he hit 13 home runs in 57 games this year. This is consistent with Hood's reported elite exit velocities and bat speed. Hood is an above-average runner who should play all around the infield with impressive arm strength. Seattle took him a little higher than he was projected to go (hence the under slot) because it loved the profile.
Round 7, Pick No. 216: 2B Hogan Windish, UNC Greensboro - $20,000 (Slot: $213,900)
Windish played second base for UNC Greensboro this year, but in the Cape Cod league he played exclusively in the outfield. He also hit really well in the Cape, slashing .266/.351/.425 against elite competition with wooden bats. At UNC Greensboro, he slashed .370/.485/.681. It seems as though many view Windish as a long-term first baseman or left fielder. Some credible people within the industry have already compared Windish to Ty France. While these types of comps are a little unfair to the player receiving them, it demonstrates the upside and excitement surrounding Windish. With double-plus raw power (as exhibited by his elite exit velocities and 96th percentile barrel rate) and newly found contact skills, Windish will have his role ultimately decided by how well he performs at the plate. There might not be another player in the Mariners' entire draft class who has a better cost-to-potential ratio than Windish.
Round 8, Pick No. 246: C Tatem Levins, Pittsburgh - $50,000 (Slot: $175,600)
Levins is a left-handed catcher with power who projects to stick behind the plate long-term. He is already 23 years old, so his development curve might be a little steep. At Pittsburgh this year, Levins slashed .321/.435/.613. He played only in ten games at the Cape Cod league this year, but in 2021 he slashed .262/.402./379. This is a player who walked more times in college than he struck out (88:83). Levins has great arm strength (but slow pop times) to pair with his good contact rates and exit velocities. Curiously enough, Levins has elite contact rates against every type of pitch except for four-seam fastballs, which he struggles mightily against regardless of velocity. If the Mariners can help him correct this, Levins could be a big-league contributor.
Round 9, Pick No. 276: RHP Tyler Gough, JSerra Catholic (CA) - $275,000 (Slot: $159,400)
Gough is a top-five round talent that the Mariners were able to pick in the ninth because they had enough money to go over-slot with him. Part of the reason he slid this far was because he was injured for most of his senior year of high school, but he was back by the end of the slate and performed well. At the MLB combine games, Gough might have been the most dominant arm, as he struck out all five batters he faced. His fastball sits 92-94 MPH but he gets elite extension so it looks like 94-96. He gets elite movement on it, with a ton of ride and induced vertical break. Gough has a very unique delivery; his release points are literally unprecedented. Any time a player has outlier traits it is special. If you combine his release with his fastball traits, it is nearly unhittable, despite his lack of velocity. He gets elite spin rates and efficiency on it as well. His plus changeup is his next best pitch and then he has a firm, gyro slider. He also has a loopy curveball for his fourth-best pitch. Gough is a great athlete and has a very electric profile and can pound the strike zone. There is some reliever risk in the profile due to his outlier delivery, but the combination of stuff and release makes Gough a very high-upside play if he can stay healthy.
Round 10, Pick No. 306: OF Bill Knight, Mercer - $50,000 (Slot: $150,900)
Knight is a senior signee from Mercer, which happens to be the alma mater of current Mariners outfielder Kyle Lewis. Knight is viewed as a great athlete with good speed and outfield defensive versatility. He has not missed a game in the past two seasons for Mercer. This year, he slashed .337/.415/.642 with 19 doubles and 17 home runs in 58 games. Knight is a player who will take his walks while striking out a moderate amount. He also seems to be a good base stealer, as he swiped 10 out of 11 bags this past year.
Round 11, Pick No. 336: RHP Marcelo Perez, TCU - $125,000
Marcelo Perez had a 3.23 ERA at TCU this past year, and his profile suggests that he is a contact manager. Perez started a little bit in 2022, but I would not be surprised if Seattle viewed him more as a reliever. He posted big strikeout numbers from 2019 to 2021, but this year he took a small step back, likely because he was starting in half of his appearances. He does have some minor control concerns as he does walk a fair amount of batters. Perez is a two-pitch pony with a 90-94 MPH fastball and 82-84 sweeping slider he throws 40 percent of the time.
Round 12, Pick No. 366: RHP Troy Taylor, UC Irvine - $125,000
Taylor was actually the Mariners' 20th-round pick last season, but they failed to sign him because he was too expensive. This year, however, Seattle finally got its guy. Taylor has a good fastball that sits 94.3 MPH on average and elite traits to help induce whiffs and poor contact. His slider is also above-average, and his changeup has flashed elite in the few times he's actually thrown it. Taylor currently has below-average control but the Seattle player development must believe they can fix him. Taylor has a generic release but the stuff plays up. He projects as a reliever due to his lack of repertoire; the changeup has been thrown so few times it could easily just be an incorrect Trackman reading. Still, Seattle must really like Taylor if it took him back-to-back years.
Round 13, Pick No. 396: RHP Darren Bowen, UNC Pembroke - $125,000
Many experts are high on Bowen as a late-round sleeper because he has starter traits and his stuff could play up in the bullpen should the team decide to move him there. Bowen was shelled in college (his best ERA was 5.11, which came during his freshman year), but just like Seattle's 2021 draft pick Bryan Woo, there is data here to suggest he should perform better during his professional development. Bowen had 84 strikeouts in 54.2 innings this year. He does have significant command and walk issues, but the swing-and-miss numbers are eye-opening. Bowen still has projection left in his 6-foot-3, 180-pound frame. Scouts laud his athleticism on the mound. He is 90-96 MPH with the fastball but the secondaries are still developing. This is definitely a projection pick, but there is some upside.
Round 14, Pick No. 426: RHP Tyler Cleveland, Central Arkansas - $125,000
Cleveland performed really well at Central Arkansas the past two years, putting up ERAs below 3.00 in each season. He has a really funky delivery and does not walk people while getting a ton of whiffs and strikeouts. His contact profile looks pretty good too, as Cleveland does not give up many home runs. He only started this year for Central Arkansas and managed to win the ASUN Pitcher of the Year in 2022 after winning Southland Conference's Relief Pitcher of the Year award in 2021. Cleveland has a similar delivery to current Mariners reliever Penn Murfee. His fastball is electric, but he currently has just one other pitch he relies on for punchouts: a low-70s breaking ball. Cleveland needs to add more velocity for him to be a major leaguer, but thankfully the Mariners player development system has proven to be one of the best at helping with that.
Round 15, Pick No. 456: 3B Blake Rambusch, Auburn - $125,000
At Auburn this year, Rambusch slashed .327/.415/.429 with great bat-to-ball skills. He was second in the entire country at making contact with fastballs in 2022 and seemed largely unphased by velocity. The game power is not there, nor does the raw power profile suggest it ever will be. Rambusch is a little undersized but he does a lot of things well, including taking his walks. He is an above-average runner. Several reports say that the Mariners' area scouts liked him a lot. As of now, Rambusch projects as organizational depth unless he develops real game power or finds a position (second base?) that makes his lack of power more palatable.
Round 16, Pick No. 486: RHP Jacob McNairy, Alabama - Unsigned
It is curious to me that McNairy has not been signed yet. As a senior, it seemed like McNairy would almost have been forced to sign for whatever Seattle offered. Maybe he is not interested in playing professional baseball, but nonetheless, McNairy is interesting because he is an SEC arm. He sits 89-92 MPH on his fastball but could reach as high as 97 if he were to move to a full-time relief role. He has plus command but does not miss many bats. He gets a ton of ground balls in part due to his quality changeup, and also has a slider he's developing. McNairy did not start until this year and projects as a reliever long-term.
Round 17, Pick No. 516: RHP Stefan Raeth, Washington - $50,000
Raeth posted a 3.39 ERA as a reliever this year for Washington. He has ridiculous strikeout numbers to go with his elite walk rates thanks to his wicked slider. Raeth earned all-conference recognition for his performance this year. His fastball has a max velocity of just 92 MPH, but it has great movement. Raeth needs to add velocity if he wants to reach the major leagues, but right now there is a lot to like about his profile and cost. He is also the type of reliever who could potentially cover multiple low-leverage innings at a time.
Round 18, Pick No. 546: LHP Brandon Schaeffer, North Carolina - $100,000
Schaeffer does have some outlier traits that make him really interesting despite being an 18th-round pick. He generates great spin with very good efficiency. The fastball has some of the best horizontal movement in the draft while being thrown from a relatively lower release point. His issue is that he does not have a lot of velocity right now; his average fastball velo is below 90 MPH. He also does not get great extension so his velocity actually plays down. He does have a four-pitch mix, but none of the secondaries really stand out. If Schaeffer adds velocity he has the potential to be a back-of-rotation type arm or a low-leverage lefty matchup. Some scouts have likened Schaeffer to former Seattle reliever Charlie Furbush.
Round 19, Pick No. 576: OF Curtis Washington Jr., Purdue - $50,000
Washington is a great athlete; he is a plus runner and should easily stick in center field. He has the arm strength and versatility to play anywhere in the outfield. Washington led the Big Ten in steals this year with 31. However, at the plate, his exit velocities suggest he might have little raw and game power. He hits a ton of ground balls and makes a lot of contact. The hit tool is his best skill, as Washington handles off-speed breaking pitches well. He also handles high velocities well, and his contact percentage against fastballs is a healthy 90 percent. There is potential here for a fourth outfielder on an MLB team as a valuable weapon off the bench who could come in late as a defensive replacement or to pinch run.
Round 20, Pick No. 606: 2B Nick Zona, James Madison - $5,000
Zona has a lot of positional versatility, as he has played everywhere in the infield except for first base. He has hit just one home run and 12 extra-base hits in four years at James Madison, but he graduated with a slash line of .288/.346/.326. The power is not there, but Zona slaps the ball around the entire field. This profile seems like a definite organizational depth player, especially given his signing bonus. He does run well, having gone 25 out of 33 on stolen bases during his college career.
UDFA: C Connor Charping, Western Michigan - $25,000
Charping is a very athletic catcher who even played some outfield. He broke Western Michigan's school record last year with 32 stolen bases and 26 this year. He slashed .348/.440/.483 last year, so there is a lot of previous production in the MAC. He had more walks (22) than strikeouts (20) this year. He does not have a ton of pop but he gets on base and is putting off medical school for the chance to play with Seattle.
UDFA: LHP Drake Batcho, Florida International - TBD
Batcho legitimately has 20-grade control, as the past two years he has walked 43 batters in 10.1 innings. To help think about how bad that is, Batcho statistically walks in a run every inning he pitches. While helping him get to moderate control seems like a tough task, doing so would make him a steal. Batcho has unbelievable fastball traits. With a fastball up to 98 MPH and great vertical movement, his low release point in his delivery makes him almost untouchable when he can locate. His new cutter seems to be working well and his sweeping slider is a work in progress. There is a reason Batcho was not drafted, but he stands out at a lot of things that are mostly uncoachable.
UDFA: RHP Austin Marozas, Missouri - TBD
Standing at 6-foot-8, Marozas is a big man. His command is subpar, but the fastball is up to 96 MPH and the changeup is quality. Marozas recently impressed in the MLB Draft League. As a starter in the SEC, however, he got shelled by home runs, bad walk rates and underwhelming strikeout rates. That being said, in the draft league he was exceptional in the six innings he pitched exclusively as a reliever. I think there might be some upside here if his command gets tinkered out, and his quality stuff will play up in a relief role. This arm will be an interesting project for Seattle's player development.
