Analyzing Mariners OF Jesse Winker's Swing With Tanner Stokey of Driveline Baseball
The Mariners' biggest offensive addition from this past offseason was outfielder Jesse Winker, who was acquired in a trade with the Reds back on March 14.
Winker had been one of the best bats in the National League over the last few years, but has struggled mightily in 2022 for Seattle. So what has gone wrong?
I sat down with Driveline hitting trainer Tanner Stokey to break down the struggles of the Mariners' left fielder.
Driveline is a baseball training facility located in Kent, Washington, teaching both hitting and pitching through the use of research and analytics. Stokey is the Director of Hitting at Driveline and spends most of his days intensely studying swings and training hitters.
It is impossible to pinpoint the struggles of a hitter to one thing, as multiple factors usually lead to mechanical breakdowns. Driveline grades players based on their “big three” data, which takes bat speed, smash factor and swing decisions into account. Winker is average to slightly above league average on the first two, and well above average for swing decisions. This likely means his struggles are coming from a slight mechanical problem.
Many of Winker’s issues stem from a long, arm-dominant swing.
“His upper body gets disconnected early in the swing, which would make sense why he has gotten torched by fastballs” Stokey says. "I wouldn't throw him anything else."
Once opposing teams find this weakness, they will attack it relentlessly. Winker is hitting just .202 on fastballs this season, down from .314 last season, according to Baseball Savant.
Stokey believes the disconnection with his upper body makes him work underneath the plane of the pitch; he has to fight his swing to try and get his hands back up to the baseball. This makes it difficult to match the plane of fastballs in the upper part of the zone.
Additionally, Stokey believes Winker's lower half could be contributing to the issue. His “load” into his back leg is abbreviated, causing him to fall forward towards the pitcher much more than in past seasons.
As he starts to fall forward, his hands go with him, creating disconnection with his hands at his first movement. This has created a bat path that doesn’t adjust well to certain areas of the zone or elevated fastballs.
This movement flaw can have several impacts to performance. It will tend to cause weak fly outs to the opposite field and rollovers to the right side of the infield. Winker has also increased his launch angle by seven percent this year, per Baseball Savant—an alarming trend likely due to mishit fly balls to the opposite field and an inflated infield fly ball rate.
Unsurprisingly to Stokey, pitches that Winker has handled well are sinkers in the lower part of the zone and breaking balls in off the plate. Both of these pitches tend to play more towards his current bat path flaws.
It is always hard to say what is going on when a player struggles, because the public is not privy to what is happening behind closed doors. There is no exact diagnosis in baseball, so all we can do is search for answers. There could be a myriad of reasons that have led to Winker's rough start to 2022, but the good news is: it can turn around just as quickly.
One positive that Stokey laid out is that Winker has been extremely unlucky, and we should see this even out. He points out that Winker has an xwOBA that ranks in the 74th percentile, which is over 40 points higher than league average. His current wOBA sits at just .290, indicating an increase in the value of his batted balls should be on the way.
A good indicator of future success for Winker will be if he starts capitalizing on the fastball again. If so, his swing is starting to return to form.
What he did against the A's on Tuesday and Wednesday is a good start.
This season has not been kind to Winker, but with a few adjustments we could easily be looking at the player he was in 2021.
